Result Update
For QE30/4/2015, Scientx's net
profit increased by 19% q-o-q or 18% y-o-y to RM43 million while revenue was mixed- dropped 2 %q-o-q but rose 7% y-o-y to RM455 million. Revenue dropped q-o-q due to 3% decline in revenue from the manufacturing division.Net profit rose due to higher profit from the manufacturing division (mainly due to higher profit margin) and from the property division (due to marginal increase in revenue & profit margin). Finally, bottom-line was boosted by lower forex losses.
Table 1: Scientex's last 8 quarterly results
Table 2: Scientex's segmental results
Chart 1: Scientex's last 39 quarterly results
Valuation
Scientex (closed at RM6.76 yesterday) is now trading
at a trailing PE of 9.5
times
(based on last 4 quarters' EPS of 71 sen). With strong growth of about
20% in the last 4 quarters, Scientx is an attractive growth stock with
PEG
ratio is about 0.5
time only.
Technical Outlook
Scientx has been in an uptrend, guided by the 10 & 21-month SMA line. With the MACD falling below the MACD Signal line, we can expect the share price to consolidate for a while. This consolidation may bring the share price to the 21-month SMA line at RM6.30-6.50.
Chart 2: Scientex's weekly chart as at Jun 29, 2015 (Source: ShareInvestor.com)
Conclusion
Based on good financial performance, attractive valuation & positive
technical outlook, Scientex remains a good stock for medium to long-term
investment.
Note:
In
addition to the disclaimer in the preamble to my blog, I hereby confirm
that I do not have any relevant interest in, or any interest in
the acquisition or disposal of, Scientex.
This is a personal weblog, reflecting my personal views and not the views of anyone or any organization, which I may be affiliated to. All information provided here, including recommendations (if any), should be treated for informational purposes only. The author should not be held liable for any informational errors, incompleteness, or delays, or for any actions taken in reliance on information contained herein.
Tuesday, June 30, 2015
Market Outlook as at June 30, 2015
Yesterday, our stock market was badly hit by another down day in Shanghai & Greece's imminent default on its IMF debt payment. FBMKLCI lost nearly 19 points to close at 1692. In the process, FBMKLCI broke the psychological support of 1700. What is standing in the way of a sharp plunge is the less-than-impressive support from the line connecting the low of August 2013 & December 2014 (AB) at 1675. Look at the weekly Chart 1.
Chart 1: FBMKLCI's weekly chart as at June 29, 2015 (Source: ShareInvestor.com)
From the monthly Chart 2, we can see that the bearish reading from price action, overlays and indicators (as noted previously) remain in place. Investors & punters are now confronted with a falling market and the uncomfortable question: Will it be a mild drop like 2000 or a sharp one like 1997 or 2008? Only time will tell.
Chart 2: FBMKLCI's monthly chart as at June 29, 2015 (Source: ShareInvestor.com)
Chart 1: FBMKLCI's weekly chart as at June 29, 2015 (Source: ShareInvestor.com)
From the monthly Chart 2, we can see that the bearish reading from price action, overlays and indicators (as noted previously) remain in place. Investors & punters are now confronted with a falling market and the uncomfortable question: Will it be a mild drop like 2000 or a sharp one like 1997 or 2008? Only time will tell.
Chart 2: FBMKLCI's monthly chart as at June 29, 2015 (Source: ShareInvestor.com)
Friday, June 26, 2015
CHINA50 Put Warrants: Pricey Options
How do we play the downside move in SSEC Index? One way is
to buy CHINA50 put warrants. There are six of them trading in our
exchange- from CHINA50-H1 to CHINA50-H6. However it must be noted that
CHINA50 index is not the same as SSEC Index. The constituent stocks for SSEC Index (from Wikipedia) & CHINA50 (from FTSE) are listed below..
Table 1: Constituent stocks of SSEC & CHINA A50
We can see below that CHINA50 has been generally rising since October last year. However, it has been dropping in the past 2 months. and it is now testing its uptrend line, SS at 12650.
Chart: CHINA A50's daily chart as at June 25, 2015 (Source: Investing.com)
The list of CHINA A50 put & call warrants are listed below. A quick glance will reveal that these warrants have very high premium. Thus, there are fairly risky.
Table 2: CHINA A50 Put & Call Valuation
Based on high premium, I would advise against trading any of the put warrants of CHINA A50 unless you are a seasoned trader.
Note:
In addition to the disclaimer in the preamble to my blog, I hereby confirm that I do not have any relevant interest in, or any interest in the acquisition or disposal of, any of the indices or instruments mentioned in this post.
Table 1: Constituent stocks of SSEC & CHINA A50
We can see below that CHINA50 has been generally rising since October last year. However, it has been dropping in the past 2 months. and it is now testing its uptrend line, SS at 12650.
Chart: CHINA A50's daily chart as at June 25, 2015 (Source: Investing.com)
The list of CHINA A50 put & call warrants are listed below. A quick glance will reveal that these warrants have very high premium. Thus, there are fairly risky.
Table 2: CHINA A50 Put & Call Valuation
Based on high premium, I would advise against trading any of the put warrants of CHINA A50 unless you are a seasoned trader.
Note:
In addition to the disclaimer in the preamble to my blog, I hereby confirm that I do not have any relevant interest in, or any interest in the acquisition or disposal of, any of the indices or instruments mentioned in this post.
Shanghai's SSEC: Temporary Top Confirmed!
Shanghai's SSEC Index dropped today, unable to climb back up above the violated accelerated uptrend line, S2-S2. See Chart 1 & 2.
Chart 1: SSEC's daily chart as at Jun 25, 2015 (Source: Stockcharts)
Chart 2: SSEC's daily chart as at Jun 25, 2015 (Source: Stockcharts)
From the intraday chart as at 2.06pm, we can see that SSEC Index is now trading below its low as at June 23 (Tuesday). This means that SSEC Index is now breaking below the S1-S1 line. Please refer back to the above 2 charts.
Chart 3: SSEC's intraday chart as at Jun 26, 2015 (Source: Yahoo Finance)
From the above study, I think SSEC Index -barring a sudden recovery to stay above the S1-S1 uptrend line- is set up for further downside move. The temporary top (for now) is baked into the chart.
Chart 1: SSEC's daily chart as at Jun 25, 2015 (Source: Stockcharts)
Chart 2: SSEC's daily chart as at Jun 25, 2015 (Source: Stockcharts)
From the intraday chart as at 2.06pm, we can see that SSEC Index is now trading below its low as at June 23 (Tuesday). This means that SSEC Index is now breaking below the S1-S1 line. Please refer back to the above 2 charts.
Chart 3: SSEC's intraday chart as at Jun 26, 2015 (Source: Yahoo Finance)
From the above study, I think SSEC Index -barring a sudden recovery to stay above the S1-S1 uptrend line- is set up for further downside move. The temporary top (for now) is baked into the chart.
AEONCR: Top-line & bottom-line rose marginally
Result Update
For QE31/5/2015, AEONCR's net profit dropped 5% q-o-q or 3% y-o-y to RM58 million while revenue was up 3% q-o-qor 16% y-o-y to RM232 million. Pre-tax profit for QE31/5//2015 improved marginally by 3% as compared to 3-mth ended 20/5/2014. This was brought on by higher financing receivables which rose by 21.61% (despite no growth in financing volume at RM844 mil cf. RM843 mil previously) and higher Other Op. Incomes which rose from RM13.7 million to RM23.8 million (due to increase in bad debts recovered, commission from sale of insurance products and AEON Big loyalty programme processing fee). These had more than offset the increase in non-performing loans (with NPL ratio increased from 2.18% to 2.74%); increase in total operating expenses ( the ratio of total operating expenses against revenue rose from 54.6% to 61.2% due to higher allowance for impairment losses on financing receivables); and higher average funding cost (though no number was given).
Table: Aeoncr's last 8 quarterly results
From the diagram below, we can see that profits are slowing with profit margin reducing and growth of both top-line & bottom-line tapering off.
Chart 1: Aeoncr's last 32 quarterly results
Valuation
AEONCR (closed at RM14.24 yesterday) is now trading at a PE of 10.2 times (based on last 4 quarters' EPS of 140 sen). At this PER, AEONCR is deemed reasonably valued.
Technical Outlook
AEONCR is in a consolidating mode after a sharp rally from RM4.00 in 2011 to nearly RM19.00 in 2013. Its immedaite support is at RM13.00 while the immediate resistance is at RM14.00.
Chart 2: Aeoncr's monthly chart as at Jun 25, 2015 (Source: ShareInvestor.com)
Conclusion
Based on good satisfactory financial performance and fair valuation, AEONCR is still a good long-term investment.
Note:
In addition to the disclaimer in the preamble to my blog, I hereby confirm that I do not have any relevant interest in, or any interest in the acquisition or disposal of, AEONCR.
For QE31/5/2015, AEONCR's net profit dropped 5% q-o-q or 3% y-o-y to RM58 million while revenue was up 3% q-o-qor 16% y-o-y to RM232 million. Pre-tax profit for QE31/5//2015 improved marginally by 3% as compared to 3-mth ended 20/5/2014. This was brought on by higher financing receivables which rose by 21.61% (despite no growth in financing volume at RM844 mil cf. RM843 mil previously) and higher Other Op. Incomes which rose from RM13.7 million to RM23.8 million (due to increase in bad debts recovered, commission from sale of insurance products and AEON Big loyalty programme processing fee). These had more than offset the increase in non-performing loans (with NPL ratio increased from 2.18% to 2.74%); increase in total operating expenses ( the ratio of total operating expenses against revenue rose from 54.6% to 61.2% due to higher allowance for impairment losses on financing receivables); and higher average funding cost (though no number was given).
Table: Aeoncr's last 8 quarterly results
From the diagram below, we can see that profits are slowing with profit margin reducing and growth of both top-line & bottom-line tapering off.
Chart 1: Aeoncr's last 32 quarterly results
Valuation
AEONCR (closed at RM14.24 yesterday) is now trading at a PE of 10.2 times (based on last 4 quarters' EPS of 140 sen). At this PER, AEONCR is deemed reasonably valued.
Technical Outlook
AEONCR is in a consolidating mode after a sharp rally from RM4.00 in 2011 to nearly RM19.00 in 2013. Its immedaite support is at RM13.00 while the immediate resistance is at RM14.00.
Chart 2: Aeoncr's monthly chart as at Jun 25, 2015 (Source: ShareInvestor.com)
Conclusion
Based on good satisfactory financial performance and fair valuation, AEONCR is still a good long-term investment.
Note:
In addition to the disclaimer in the preamble to my blog, I hereby confirm that I do not have any relevant interest in, or any interest in the acquisition or disposal of, AEONCR.
Wednesday, June 24, 2015
Ulicorp: A silent performer!
Almost a year ago, I posted on the breakout of a Cup-with-handle formation for Ulicorp (here). I was expecting the stock to charge up to RM1.40 & possibly RM1.70.
After that posting, I forgot about the stock until one of my clients told me about it. Looking at the chart, I think the stock has run its course (using the retracement distance and the advance made). In term of valuation, Ulicorp- closed at RM3.84 - is now trading at a PER of 22 times (based on FY2014 EPS of 17.58 sen). Its PB ratio is 2.4 times (based on NTA od RM1.59 as at 31/3/2015). Finally, its DY at 1% is nothing to shout about.
If you were lucky enough to get into this stock, this is a good time to harvest your investment.
Chart: Ulicorp's monthly chart as at June 24, 2015 (Source: ShareInvestor.com)
Note:
In addition to the disclaimer in the preamble to my blog, I hereby confirm that I do not have any relevant interest in, or any interest in the acquisition or disposal of, ULICorp.
After that posting, I forgot about the stock until one of my clients told me about it. Looking at the chart, I think the stock has run its course (using the retracement distance and the advance made). In term of valuation, Ulicorp- closed at RM3.84 - is now trading at a PER of 22 times (based on FY2014 EPS of 17.58 sen). Its PB ratio is 2.4 times (based on NTA od RM1.59 as at 31/3/2015). Finally, its DY at 1% is nothing to shout about.
If you were lucky enough to get into this stock, this is a good time to harvest your investment.
Chart: Ulicorp's monthly chart as at June 24, 2015 (Source: ShareInvestor.com)
Note:
In addition to the disclaimer in the preamble to my blog, I hereby confirm that I do not have any relevant interest in, or any interest in the acquisition or disposal of, ULICorp.
Paramon: New All-time High
Paramon has been in the news lately. In early June, Malaysian Insider featured a short article on the company where it expects to "achieve its RM600 million
property sales target within the next three years, capitalising on existing
projects and RM2 billion worth of bids". The latter "includes a bid under the Employees Provident Fund's Kwasa
Damansara project in Sungai Buloh, Selangor". For more, go here.
This was follow-up by a report from RHB entitled "On the Path of Value Discovery". The full report is available in klse13investor (here). RHB valued Paramon at RM2.40 based on 40% discount to property RNAV and a 20% holding company discount.
Chartwise, we can see that Paramon has recently surpassed its all-time high of RM1.95 recorded in June 2011. Today it has surpassed the psychological RM2.00 mark. The current rally is the third time that this stock has surpassed its overhead resistance (posed by a slanting line connecting recent highs). In previous instances, the stock surged upward by 50-120%. If the current breakout can enjoy an upward surge of 50%, the share price may move to RM2.55.
Chart: Paramon's monthy chart as at Jun 24, 2015_4.00pm (Source: ShareInvestor)
Financial performance has been satisfactory albeit flattish.
Diagram: Paramon's last 10 quarterly P&L & CF (Source: ShareInvestor)
Based on bullish technical breakout, Paramon could be a good stock for trading BUY.
Note:
In addition to the disclaimer in the preamble to my blog, I hereby confirm that I do not have any relevant interest in, or any interest in the acquisition or disposal of, Paramon.
MUH: Upside Breakout
MUH broke above its downtrend line, RR at RM1.35 this morning. This bullish breakout could be the start of the next upleg for the stock.
Chart: MUH's daily chart as at Jun 24, 2015_11.00am (Source: ShareInvestor)
MUH is a building material supplier that's involved in the manufacturing of fire resistance bricks, hollow blocks, paving blocks & box culverts (here). Its sudden increase in revenue & profits is due to its property development subsidiary, TF Land Sdn Bhd (here). Because of the property development division, MUH's EPS soared to 41 sen for FY2014. For 1Q2015, its EPS was 8.2 sen or annualized EPS of 32.8 sen for FY2015. At RM1.44 (as at 4.00pm), MUH is trading at a PER of 4.4 times.
Diagram: MUH's last 10 quarterly P&L & CF (Source: ShareInvestor)
Based on attractive valuation & bullish technical outlook, MUH could be a trading BUY.
Note:
In addition to the disclaimer in the preamble to my blog, I hereby confirm that I do not have any relevant interest in, or any interest in the acquisition or disposal of, MUH.
Chart: MUH's daily chart as at Jun 24, 2015_11.00am (Source: ShareInvestor)
MUH is a building material supplier that's involved in the manufacturing of fire resistance bricks, hollow blocks, paving blocks & box culverts (here). Its sudden increase in revenue & profits is due to its property development subsidiary, TF Land Sdn Bhd (here). Because of the property development division, MUH's EPS soared to 41 sen for FY2014. For 1Q2015, its EPS was 8.2 sen or annualized EPS of 32.8 sen for FY2015. At RM1.44 (as at 4.00pm), MUH is trading at a PER of 4.4 times.
Diagram: MUH's last 10 quarterly P&L & CF (Source: ShareInvestor)
Based on attractive valuation & bullish technical outlook, MUH could be a trading BUY.
Note:
In addition to the disclaimer in the preamble to my blog, I hereby confirm that I do not have any relevant interest in, or any interest in the acquisition or disposal of, MUH.
VS: Earnings remained strong
Result Update
For QE30/4/2015, VS's net profit increased by 45% q-o-q but rose 595% y-o-y to RM26.5 million while revenue dropped 10% q-o-q or rose 12% y-o-y to RM420 million. VS's PBT rose q-o-q mainly due to better sales mix contributed by the Malaysia operations as compared to the preceding quarter.
Table 2: VS's last 8 quarterly results
Chart 1: VS's last 41 quarterly results
Valuation
VS (closed at RM4.49 yesterday) is trading at a trailing PE of 7.5 times (based on last 4 quarters' EPS of 60 sen). Based on the low PE, VS is deemed attractively valued.
Technical Outlook
VS is trading at its all-time high. The share price and indicators appear to be topping out- reflecting investors' cautious stand on this stock. They may be wondering: Is this stock at peak earning? If so, we must be cautious in the event of earning reversal.
Chart 3: VS's monthly chart as at Jun 23, 2015 (Source: ShareInvestor.com)
Conclusion
Based on satisfactory financial performance and attractive valuation, VS is a good stock for long-term investment. However, I would advise caution not to buy excessively as the stock could be at peak earning.
Note:
In addition to the disclaimer in the preamble to my blog, I hereby confirm that I do not have any relevant interest in, or any interest in the acquisition or disposal of, VS.
For QE30/4/2015, VS's net profit increased by 45% q-o-q but rose 595% y-o-y to RM26.5 million while revenue dropped 10% q-o-q or rose 12% y-o-y to RM420 million. VS's PBT rose q-o-q mainly due to better sales mix contributed by the Malaysia operations as compared to the preceding quarter.
Table 2: VS's last 8 quarterly results
Chart 1: VS's last 41 quarterly results
Valuation
VS (closed at RM4.49 yesterday) is trading at a trailing PE of 7.5 times (based on last 4 quarters' EPS of 60 sen). Based on the low PE, VS is deemed attractively valued.
Technical Outlook
VS is trading at its all-time high. The share price and indicators appear to be topping out- reflecting investors' cautious stand on this stock. They may be wondering: Is this stock at peak earning? If so, we must be cautious in the event of earning reversal.
Chart 3: VS's monthly chart as at Jun 23, 2015 (Source: ShareInvestor.com)
Conclusion
Based on satisfactory financial performance and attractive valuation, VS is a good stock for long-term investment. However, I would advise caution not to buy excessively as the stock could be at peak earning.
Note:
In addition to the disclaimer in the preamble to my blog, I hereby confirm that I do not have any relevant interest in, or any interest in the acquisition or disposal of, VS.
Prlexus: Approaching its all-time high
Results Update
For QE30/4/2015, Prlexus's net profit dropped 70% q-o-q by 6% y-o-y to RM2.1 million while revenue was mixed- dropped 20% q-o-q but rose 25% y-o-y to RM67 million. Revenue dropped q-o-q due to lower revenue from the apparel division and advertising division of RM16.4 million and RM 865,000 respectively during the quarter. Profit dropped q-o-q as a result of lower revenue.
Table 1: Prlexus's last 8 quarterly results
Chart 1: Prlexus's last 27 quarterly results
Valuation
Prlexus (closed at RM2.16 yesterday) is now trading at a PE of 11 times (based on last 4 quarters' EPS of 20 sen). At this PER, Prlexus is deemed fully valued.
Technical Outlook
Prlexus is in a long-term uptrend. Its immediate resistance is its all-time high at RM2.30 while its good support level is at the 10-month SMA line at RM1.60.
Chart 2: Prlexus's monthly chart as at Jun 23, 2015 (Source: ShareInvestor)
Conclusion
Based on weaker financial performance and full valuation, it may be time to take profit on Prlexus.
Note:
In addition to the disclaimer in the preamble to my blog, I hereby confirm that I do not have any relevant interest in, or any interest in the acquisition or disposal of, Prlexus.
For QE30/4/2015, Prlexus's net profit dropped 70% q-o-q by 6% y-o-y to RM2.1 million while revenue was mixed- dropped 20% q-o-q but rose 25% y-o-y to RM67 million. Revenue dropped q-o-q due to lower revenue from the apparel division and advertising division of RM16.4 million and RM 865,000 respectively during the quarter. Profit dropped q-o-q as a result of lower revenue.
Table 1: Prlexus's last 8 quarterly results
Chart 1: Prlexus's last 27 quarterly results
Valuation
Prlexus (closed at RM2.16 yesterday) is now trading at a PE of 11 times (based on last 4 quarters' EPS of 20 sen). At this PER, Prlexus is deemed fully valued.
Technical Outlook
Prlexus is in a long-term uptrend. Its immediate resistance is its all-time high at RM2.30 while its good support level is at the 10-month SMA line at RM1.60.
Chart 2: Prlexus's monthly chart as at Jun 23, 2015 (Source: ShareInvestor)
Conclusion
Based on weaker financial performance and full valuation, it may be time to take profit on Prlexus.
Note:
In addition to the disclaimer in the preamble to my blog, I hereby confirm that I do not have any relevant interest in, or any interest in the acquisition or disposal of, Prlexus.
Magni: Earnings stablilized
Results Update
For QE30/4/2015, Magni's net profit dropped 5% q-o-q but rose 95% y-o-y
to RM16.5 million while revenue dropped 12% q-o-q but rose 9% y-o-y to
RM177 million. Revenue increased q-o-q due to higher sale orders received from garment and packaging businesses by 29.0% and 1.1% respectively. PBT for the current quarter increased q-o-q mainly due to higher revenue and other operating income.
Table: Magni's last 8 quarterly results
Chart 1: Magni's last 25 quarterly results
Valuation
Magni (trading at RM3.60 yesterday) has a trailing PE of 7.5 times (based on last 4 quarters' EPS of 48 sen). At this PER, Magni's valuation is still undemanding. It may command a PE of 9-10 times.
Technical Outlook
Magni is in a gradual uptrend line. Its immediate support is at the horizontal support of RM3.10- coinciding with the 10-Month SMA line.
Chart 2: Magni's weekly chart as at Jun 23, 2015 (Source: ShareInvestor.com)
Conclusion
Despite the satisfactory financial performance & attractive valuation, Magni is still a good stock for long-term investment.
Note:
In addition to the disclaimer in the preamble to my blog, I hereby confirm that I do not have any relevant interest in, or any interest in the acquisition or disposal of, Magni.
Tuesday, June 23, 2015
Parkson: A long & winding road
Result Update
For QE31/3/2015, Parkson's net profit dropped by 97% q-o-q or 95% y-o-y to RM3 million while revenue inched higher by 7% q-o-q or 9% y-o-y to RM1.05 billion. Revenue & operating profit increased q-o-q due to CNY & higher consumer spending ahead of the implementation of GST in Malaysia. PBT dropped due to one-off provision for arbitral award in respect of disputes arising from the Beijing Metro City Shopping Plaza's tenancy agreement (mentioned in an earlier post).
Table 1: Parkson's last 8 quarterly results
Chart 1: Parkson's last 33 quarterly results
Valuation
Parkson (closed at RM1.67 as at 10.00am) is now trading at a PER of 11 times (based on last 4 quarters' EPS of 15 sen). If the exceptional gain from the sale of the disposal of KL Festival City Mall amounting to RM109 million and the impairment loss on goodwill amounting to RM44 million booked into the accounts in QE31/12/2014, Parkson's last 4 quarters' EPS would be lower to 10 sen. This would translate to a PER of 17 ti mes. At this PER, Parkson is deemed fully valued.
Technical Outlook
Parkson has broken below the gradual uptrend line, SS at RM2.00. The "saucer bottom" line, AB should provide some support to the stock at RM1.50-1.60. On extreme weakness, overshooting is possible as seen in 2003.
Chart 2: Parkson's weekly chart as at Jun 22, 2015 (Source: ShareInvestor.com)
Conclusion
Despite poorer financial performance, full valuation & bearish technical outlook, Parkson is worth tracking as the share price has dropped substantially. The contrarian investors may consider this stock for long-term investment at the present price while those who bought earlier, should hold onto their investment.
Note:
In addition to the disclaimer in the preamble to my blog, I hereby confirm that I do not have any relevant interest in, or any interest in the acquisition or disposal of, Parkson.
For QE31/3/2015, Parkson's net profit dropped by 97% q-o-q or 95% y-o-y to RM3 million while revenue inched higher by 7% q-o-q or 9% y-o-y to RM1.05 billion. Revenue & operating profit increased q-o-q due to CNY & higher consumer spending ahead of the implementation of GST in Malaysia. PBT dropped due to one-off provision for arbitral award in respect of disputes arising from the Beijing Metro City Shopping Plaza's tenancy agreement (mentioned in an earlier post).
Table 1: Parkson's last 8 quarterly results
Chart 1: Parkson's last 33 quarterly results
Valuation
Parkson (closed at RM1.67 as at 10.00am) is now trading at a PER of 11 times (based on last 4 quarters' EPS of 15 sen). If the exceptional gain from the sale of the disposal of KL Festival City Mall amounting to RM109 million and the impairment loss on goodwill amounting to RM44 million booked into the accounts in QE31/12/2014, Parkson's last 4 quarters' EPS would be lower to 10 sen. This would translate to a PER of 17 ti mes. At this PER, Parkson is deemed fully valued.
Technical Outlook
Parkson has broken below the gradual uptrend line, SS at RM2.00. The "saucer bottom" line, AB should provide some support to the stock at RM1.50-1.60. On extreme weakness, overshooting is possible as seen in 2003.
Chart 2: Parkson's weekly chart as at Jun 22, 2015 (Source: ShareInvestor.com)
Conclusion
Despite poorer financial performance, full valuation & bearish technical outlook, Parkson is worth tracking as the share price has dropped substantially. The contrarian investors may consider this stock for long-term investment at the present price while those who bought earlier, should hold onto their investment.
Note:
In addition to the disclaimer in the preamble to my blog, I hereby confirm that I do not have any relevant interest in, or any interest in the acquisition or disposal of, Parkson.
Monday, June 22, 2015
Shanghai's SSEC: Uptrend may be broken
Shanghai's SSEC Index may have just broken its accelerated uptrend line, S2-S2 at 4750 on June 19. Is this the end of the Chinese amazing bull run? We will have to wait and see. Shanghai's Stock Exchange seems to be closed today.
Chart 1: SSEC's daily chart as at June 19, 2015 (Source: Stockcharts.com)
As it stands now, SSEC has also broken its immediate horizontal support at 4500-4600. Its next support is at 4000-4100. A breakdown of the accelerated uptrend line as noted above came after persistent bearish divergence in the daily MACD & RSI indicators.
Chart 2: SSEC's weekly chart as at June 19, 2015 (Source: Stockcharts.com)
SSEC is not alone. Mumbai's BSE Index broke its uptrend line in April and failed to recover above it in May.
Chart 3: BSE's weekly chart as at June 19, 2015 (Source: Stockcharts.com)
Investors can only hope that the correction in SSEC will not be too nasty. The sharp rally in SSEC over the past 12 months has all the hallmarks of a bubble. A mild correction is just what a good doctor would prescribe; anything more could kill the patient.
Chart 1: SSEC's daily chart as at June 19, 2015 (Source: Stockcharts.com)
As it stands now, SSEC has also broken its immediate horizontal support at 4500-4600. Its next support is at 4000-4100. A breakdown of the accelerated uptrend line as noted above came after persistent bearish divergence in the daily MACD & RSI indicators.
Chart 2: SSEC's weekly chart as at June 19, 2015 (Source: Stockcharts.com)
SSEC is not alone. Mumbai's BSE Index broke its uptrend line in April and failed to recover above it in May.
Chart 3: BSE's weekly chart as at June 19, 2015 (Source: Stockcharts.com)
Investors can only hope that the correction in SSEC will not be too nasty. The sharp rally in SSEC over the past 12 months has all the hallmarks of a bubble. A mild correction is just what a good doctor would prescribe; anything more could kill the patient.
Penta: Breaking out of a 5-year Saucer Bottom
Background
Pentamaster Bhd ("Penta") is involved in production of automated equipment & provision of automated manufacturing solution. Its areas of expertise include semiconductor, vision inspection, IT, LED test solution, material handling & packaging solution.
The group has worked fora few years in developing the Glove Unique Reprocessing Unit ("GURU") which allows rubber gloves to be reused up to 7 times. This game-changing product has not caught on in a big way. If it succeeds in penetrating the healthcare sector, its revenue & earning could increase significantly.
Recent Financial Results
For the past 10 quarters, Penta's financial performance has slowly improved albeit with some volatility. The latter is probably due to the nature of its business which is likely to be project-based.
Chart 1: Penta's last 10 quarterly results
When you look at Penta's financial performance over a 10-year period, you will see a drop in revenue and a period of losses in FY2008-2010. This was due to business slowdown that accompanied the global financial crisis of 2008.
Chart 2: Penta's last 10 annual results
In 2010, Penta carried out a strategic move to dispose off 2 factories and certain machineries for RM50 million in order to reduce its gearing as well as to re-focus its business on its core technological areas.
Chart 3: Penta's Shareholder's Fund, Gearing & Total Assets for last 10 annual results
This strategic move helped to push up its profit margin as well as elevating its assets turnover over the past 3 years. With lowered gearing (the opposite of T.Assets/T.Equity), the group is poised to expand its Balance Sheet when the business volume comes in. Alas, business volume has been tepid at best.
Chart 4: Penta's Profit Margin, Assets Turnover & T.Assets to T. Equity for last 10 annual results
Financial Position
As at 31/3/2015, Penta's financial position is deemed satisfactory with current ratio at 2.2 times and gearing ratio at 0.3 time.
Valuation
Penta (traded at RM0.77 as at 12.00pm) commands a trailing PE of 13.8 times. At this PER, Penta is deemed fully valued.
Technical Outlook
Penta has just broken above its symmetrical triangle at RM0.72 (see Chart 4). Its immediate target is RM0.80. This breakout also coincides with the breakout of a 5-year sauce formation. It may potentially g as high as RM1.20.
Chart 1:Penta's daily chart as at Jun 19, 2015 (Source: ShareInvestor)
Chart 2: Penta's monthly chart as at Jun 19, 2015 (Source: ShareInvestor)
Conclusion
Based on technical consideration, Penta could be a good stock for a trading BUY. Its unexciting financial performance and full valuation would rule out the stock for long-term investment for now.
Note:
In addition to the disclaimer in the preamble to my blog, I hereby confirm that I do not have any relevant interest in, or any interest in the acquisition or disposal of, Penta.
Pentamaster Bhd ("Penta") is involved in production of automated equipment & provision of automated manufacturing solution. Its areas of expertise include semiconductor, vision inspection, IT, LED test solution, material handling & packaging solution.
The group has worked fora few years in developing the Glove Unique Reprocessing Unit ("GURU") which allows rubber gloves to be reused up to 7 times. This game-changing product has not caught on in a big way. If it succeeds in penetrating the healthcare sector, its revenue & earning could increase significantly.
Recent Financial Results
For the past 10 quarters, Penta's financial performance has slowly improved albeit with some volatility. The latter is probably due to the nature of its business which is likely to be project-based.
Chart 1: Penta's last 10 quarterly results
When you look at Penta's financial performance over a 10-year period, you will see a drop in revenue and a period of losses in FY2008-2010. This was due to business slowdown that accompanied the global financial crisis of 2008.
Chart 2: Penta's last 10 annual results
In 2010, Penta carried out a strategic move to dispose off 2 factories and certain machineries for RM50 million in order to reduce its gearing as well as to re-focus its business on its core technological areas.
Chart 3: Penta's Shareholder's Fund, Gearing & Total Assets for last 10 annual results
This strategic move helped to push up its profit margin as well as elevating its assets turnover over the past 3 years. With lowered gearing (the opposite of T.Assets/T.Equity), the group is poised to expand its Balance Sheet when the business volume comes in. Alas, business volume has been tepid at best.
Chart 4: Penta's Profit Margin, Assets Turnover & T.Assets to T. Equity for last 10 annual results
Financial Position
As at 31/3/2015, Penta's financial position is deemed satisfactory with current ratio at 2.2 times and gearing ratio at 0.3 time.
Valuation
Penta (traded at RM0.77 as at 12.00pm) commands a trailing PE of 13.8 times. At this PER, Penta is deemed fully valued.
Technical Outlook
Penta has just broken above its symmetrical triangle at RM0.72 (see Chart 4). Its immediate target is RM0.80. This breakout also coincides with the breakout of a 5-year sauce formation. It may potentially g as high as RM1.20.
Chart 1:Penta's daily chart as at Jun 19, 2015 (Source: ShareInvestor)
Chart 2: Penta's monthly chart as at Jun 19, 2015 (Source: ShareInvestor)
Conclusion
Based on technical consideration, Penta could be a good stock for a trading BUY. Its unexciting financial performance and full valuation would rule out the stock for long-term investment for now.
Note:
In addition to the disclaimer in the preamble to my blog, I hereby confirm that I do not have any relevant interest in, or any interest in the acquisition or disposal of, Penta.
Friday, June 19, 2015
MISC: Uptrend Under Threat
MISC dropped RM00.41 to close at RM7.89 yesterday. That pushed the share price just below the "uptrend line" at about RM8.00. See Chart 1 below.
Chart 1: MISC's weekly chart as at Jun 18, 2015 (Source: ShareInvestor.com)
From the monthly chart (Chart 2), we can see that MISC has been rising with the 10-month SMA line acting as its uptrend line. The RM8.00 support is very critical for the continued uptrend of this stock.
Chart 2: MISC's monthly chart as at Jun 18, 2015 (Source: ShareInvestor.com)
MISC is at an inflection point. It must recover back above the RM8.00 mark. As at 11.15am this morning, it is trading at RM8.03-8.04. Hopefully, MISC will stage a decent rebound from here. For the brave heart, you might consider a trading BUY with a stop loss just below RM8.00. My longer term rating remains unchanged: SELL INTO STRENGTH.
Note:
Chart 1: MISC's weekly chart as at Jun 18, 2015 (Source: ShareInvestor.com)
From the monthly chart (Chart 2), we can see that MISC has been rising with the 10-month SMA line acting as its uptrend line. The RM8.00 support is very critical for the continued uptrend of this stock.
Chart 2: MISC's monthly chart as at Jun 18, 2015 (Source: ShareInvestor.com)
MISC is at an inflection point. It must recover back above the RM8.00 mark. As at 11.15am this morning, it is trading at RM8.03-8.04. Hopefully, MISC will stage a decent rebound from here. For the brave heart, you might consider a trading BUY with a stop loss just below RM8.00. My longer term rating remains unchanged: SELL INTO STRENGTH.
Note:
In
addition to the disclaimer in the preamble to my blog, I hereby confirm
that I do not have any relevant interest in, or any interest in
the acquisition or disposal of, MISC.
Thursday, June 18, 2015
Gasmsia: IBR coming
Gasmsia has revealed that incentive-based regulation (IBR) for the gas sector is well
under way. It is expected to be implemented by as soon
as Jan 2016. This has prompted CIMB to lower our target price to RM2.25 as we
change our valuation method to SOP from 22x CY16 P/E to better reflect its
earnings composition. We also downgrade to Reduce from Hold as IBR could lead
to a sharp earnings erosion.For more, check out the report in the Star newspaper.
Chartwise, we can see that Gasmsia has broken below its strong horizontal support at RM2.60. While it may find support at RM2.50 or even RM2.40, these support levels are relatively weak. In line with the negative development on both the fundamental & technical fronts, I would recommend a SELL on Gasmsia.
Chart: Gasmsia's weekly chart as at Jun 17, 2015 (Source: ShareInvestor.com)
Note:
In addition to the disclaimer in the preamble to my blog, I hereby confirm that I do not have any relevant interest in, or any interest in the acquisition or disposal of, Gasmsia.
Chart: Gasmsia's weekly chart as at Jun 17, 2015 (Source: ShareInvestor.com)
Note:
In addition to the disclaimer in the preamble to my blog, I hereby confirm that I do not have any relevant interest in, or any interest in the acquisition or disposal of, Gasmsia.
Tenaga: Buying 1MDB's stake in Project 3B
The Cabinet has just approved the move by Tenaga Nasional Berhad (TNB) to buy over 1Malaysia
Development Berhad (1MDB)'s stake in the Project 3B coal power plant for an undisclosed sum. For more, go here.
Chart 2: Tenaga's monthly chart as at Tenaga 18, 2015_2.45pm (Source: ShareInvestor.com)
Note:
In addition to the disclaimer in the preamble to my blog, I hereby confirm that I do not have any relevant interest in, or any interest in the acquisition or disposal of, Tenaga.
From Chart 1, we can see the sharp plunge in Tenaga's share price. At the time of writing, the share price has stabilized at RM12.56.
Chart 1: Tenaga's 5-min chart as at Tenaga 18, 2015_2.45pm (Source: ShareInvestor.com)
The monthly chart below shows that Tenaga's long-term uptrend has halted in the past few weeks- probably due to reports that it has to come in to help out in Project 3B. Tenaga's share prices were moving in a large expanding triangle, with immediate support at RM12.00. If the share price falls below this mark, the downtrend should begin in earnest.
With the new cost pass through regime in place, Tenaga's share price weakness may be a temporary phenomenon due to the perceived bailout of 1MDB's Project 3B.
Until the details of the purchase of Project 3B are announced, we are not sure how it would benefit or impact Tenaga. For now, I believe that Tenaga could be a good BUY if it tests the RM12.00 mark.
Chart 2: Tenaga's monthly chart as at Tenaga 18, 2015_2.45pm (Source: ShareInvestor.com)
Note:
In addition to the disclaimer in the preamble to my blog, I hereby confirm that I do not have any relevant interest in, or any interest in the acquisition or disposal of, Tenaga.
SCGM: Earnings rose due to MYR weakness
Results Update
For QE30/4/2015, SCGM's net profit rose 34% q-o-q or 104% y-o-y to RM5.1 million while revenue was mixed- down 5% q-o-q but rose 9% y-o-y - to RM26 million. Revenue dropped q-o-q in line with slight slowdown demand from the general Asian and Australian markets. The big festival like Chinese New Year in February 2015 had boosted sales in the previous quarter to January 2015. Profits rose q-o-q due to foreign exchange gains as a result of a stronger U.S. dollar had an impact on export sales
Table: SCGM's last 8 quarterly results
Chart 1: SCGM's last 25 quarterly results
Valuation
SCGM (closed at RM3.32 yesterday) is now trading at a PE of 17 times (based on last 4 quarters' EPS of 19.46 sen). At this PE, SCGM is fully valued.
Technical Outlook
SCGM is in a long-term uptrend line. Price weakness has been arrested by the 10-month SMA line, currently at RM2.40-2.50. MACD & Slow Stochastic indicators are still positive.
Chart 2: SCGM's monthly chart as at Jun 17, 2015 (Source: ShareInvestor.com)
Conclusion
Based on good financial performance & positive technical outlook, SCGM is still a good stock for long-term investment. However, its upside may be limited given its current high PER.
Note:
In addition to the disclaimer in the preamble to my blog, I hereby confirm that I do not have any relevant interest in, or any interest in the acquisition or disposal of, SCGM.
For QE30/4/2015, SCGM's net profit rose 34% q-o-q or 104% y-o-y to RM5.1 million while revenue was mixed- down 5% q-o-q but rose 9% y-o-y - to RM26 million. Revenue dropped q-o-q in line with slight slowdown demand from the general Asian and Australian markets. The big festival like Chinese New Year in February 2015 had boosted sales in the previous quarter to January 2015. Profits rose q-o-q due to foreign exchange gains as a result of a stronger U.S. dollar had an impact on export sales
Table: SCGM's last 8 quarterly results
Chart 1: SCGM's last 25 quarterly results
Valuation
SCGM (closed at RM3.32 yesterday) is now trading at a PE of 17 times (based on last 4 quarters' EPS of 19.46 sen). At this PE, SCGM is fully valued.
Technical Outlook
SCGM is in a long-term uptrend line. Price weakness has been arrested by the 10-month SMA line, currently at RM2.40-2.50. MACD & Slow Stochastic indicators are still positive.
Chart 2: SCGM's monthly chart as at Jun 17, 2015 (Source: ShareInvestor.com)
Conclusion
Based on good financial performance & positive technical outlook, SCGM is still a good stock for long-term investment. However, its upside may be limited given its current high PER.
Note:
In addition to the disclaimer in the preamble to my blog, I hereby confirm that I do not have any relevant interest in, or any interest in the acquisition or disposal of, SCGM.
Topglov: Earnings Soared
Results Update
For QE31/5/2015, Topglov's net profit rose by 29% q-o-q or 71% y-o-y to RM72 million while revenue rose by 16% q-o-q or 15% y-o-y at RM661 million. Profit Before Tax rose sequentially due to higher sales volume, ongoing efficiency and quality enhancement initiatives, low raw material prices and a stronger US Dollar.
Table: Topglov's last 8 quarterly results
Chart 1: Topglov's last 36 quarterly results
Valuation
Topglov (closed at RM5.87 yesterday) is now trading at a PE of 16.314
times (based on last 4 quarters' EPS of 36.1 41 sen). At this PE multiple,
Topglov is attractively valued.
Technical Outlook
From Chart 2 below, we can see that Topglov share price broke above the 3-month trading range of RM5.40-5.60. It is likely to test the large triangle (ABC) at RM6.40. See Chart 3 below.
Chart 2: Topglov's daily chart as at Jun 17, 2015 (Source: ShareInvestor.com)
Chart 3: Topglov's monthly chart as at Jun 17, 2015(Source: ShareInvestor.com)
Conclusion
Based on better financial performance, attractive valuation & mildly positive technical outlook, Topglov is rated a BUY. While the RM6.40 resistance may cap the stock's upside for a while, a breakout is very likely as the stock is trading at lower PE multiple than its peers.
Note:
In addition to the disclaimer in the preamble to my blog, I hereby confirm that I do not have any relevant interest in, or any interest in the acquisition or disposal of, Topglov.
For QE31/5/2015, Topglov's net profit rose by 29% q-o-q or 71% y-o-y to RM72 million while revenue rose by 16% q-o-q or 15% y-o-y at RM661 million. Profit Before Tax rose sequentially due to higher sales volume, ongoing efficiency and quality enhancement initiatives, low raw material prices and a stronger US Dollar.
Table: Topglov's last 8 quarterly results
Chart 1: Topglov's last 36 quarterly results
Valuation
Topglov (closed at RM5.87 yesterday) is now trading at a PE of 16.3
Technical Outlook
From Chart 2 below, we can see that Topglov share price broke above the 3-month trading range of RM5.40-5.60. It is likely to test the large triangle (ABC) at RM6.40. See Chart 3 below.
Chart 2: Topglov's daily chart as at Jun 17, 2015 (Source: ShareInvestor.com)
Chart 3: Topglov's monthly chart as at Jun 17, 2015(Source: ShareInvestor.com)
Conclusion
Based on better financial performance, attractive valuation & mildly positive technical outlook, Topglov is rated a BUY. While the RM6.40 resistance may cap the stock's upside for a while, a breakout is very likely as the stock is trading at lower PE multiple than its peers.
Note:
In addition to the disclaimer in the preamble to my blog, I hereby confirm that I do not have any relevant interest in, or any interest in the acquisition or disposal of, Topglov.