Thursday, August 21, 2008

BJToto broke its long-term uptrend

BJToto broke its long-term uptrend line two weeks ago. This is the second time the share price broke below its long-term uptrend line at the RM4.80-85 level. The first time it happened, was in early July but the share price had somehow recovered to stay above the uptrend line in late July & early August. From the chart, we can see a medium-term downtrend line has formed, with resistance at RM4.85-90. The break of the uptrend followed either a rounding-top reversal or a double-top reversal (at the RM5.50-55 level). BJToto, which closed at RM4.58 yesterday, can expect support at the horizontal line of RM4.30-40 level.


Chart 1: BJToto's weekly chart as at August 20th (source: Quickcharts)

What do you do with BJToto if you have this stock in your portfolio? While the downside may be limited (or not substantial), you still need to protect that capital. Ideally, you would prefer to sell BJToto when its share price has rebounded up to its medium-term downtrend line. As the share price is presently equidistant to its resistant at RM4.85-90 & its support at RM4.30-40, you will face a dilemma & may choose to hold your position. That may not be the best move since the overall market is in a bearish mode and BJToto has broken below its uptrend. In investment, we have to settle for less than the best. As a wise man once said, "I would rather be generally correct than precisely wrong."

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