Friday, January 02, 2009

Construction sector to benefit from pump-priming

The construction sector is expected to be the main beneficiary of any pump-priming exercise by the Government, in order to prevent the economy from slipping into a recession. As you can see from the Construction index's daily chart, a short-term uptrend has started (based on higher 'highs' & higher 'lows' achieved over the past 2 months). Nevertheless, the Construction index's upside move would encounter resistance by the prevailing medium-term downtrend. For your technical analysis, you may use the 100-day SMA as the medium-term downtrend line.


Chart 1: Construction's daily chart as at Jan 2, 2009 (source: Tradesignum.com)

Among the construction stocks, 2 stocks have broken above their respective medium-term downtrend line. They are Gamuda & Muhibah (see Chart 2 & 3, respectively).


Chart 2: Gamuda's daily chart as at Jan 2, 2009 (source: Tradesignum.com)


Chart 3: Muhibah's daily chart as at Jan 2, 2009 (source: Tradesignum.com)

Besides Gamuda & Muhibah, you can also consider IJM, WCT & MMC. All 3 stocks have dropped very substantially from their high & could rebound very quickly if the funds managers decides to accumulate them aggressively.
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3 comments:

  1. UnknownFriday, January 02, 2009 9:30:00 PM

    Hi Alex..

    Always go thru on whatever you note.

    Almost all plantation counter go green today. Are this scenario good for long term investment?

    Happy New Year!

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  2. Alex LuMonday, January 05, 2009 9:59:00 AM

    Hi Zahari,

    I think it's too early to tag the developing rally in the Plantation sector as a long-term uptrend move. The performance of the Plantation sector-- mostly involved in oil palm cultivation-- is dependent on CPO prices. And, it's too early to say that CPO prices have bottomed. One only has to look back at the numerous calls for a market top for CPO in 2007-8 as well as for a market bottom in 2000-1 and you would feel that CPO will have more surprises in the months ahead, both on the upside as well as the downside.

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  3. UnknownFriday, January 16, 2009 10:39:00 AM

    hi alex,
    come across ur blog during my googling for construction input.
    my work require me to report on the productivity of the construction sector.
    Mind giving me some 'wishful thinking' on what is going to happen to the construction industry this year 2009?
    thank you.

    ReplyDelete