Tuesday, April 07, 2009

Market Outlook as at April 7, 2009

Our market has finally entered into a correction after many days of gain. It may have made a temporary peak similar to the earlier peak in early January this year (see the blue & pink boxes). In the event of a mild correction, the KLCI may pullback to the psychological level of 900. Even if a more severe correction were to set in, I believe the KLCI would find good support at 880 level.


Chart 1: KLCI's daily chart as at 6/4/2009 (Source: Quickcharts)

The correction in our market follows a small drop in DJIA yesterday. DJIA tested its 100-day SMA at 8030 before correcting. Is DJIA about to correct more meaningfully? Looking at Chart 2 below, we can see that DJIA has gained 1500 points or 23% since making a low of 6500 in March this year. If we expect a correction according to Fibonacci Retracement ratios (of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8% and 100%), then it is possible that DJIA may pullback to 7640, 7430, 7250, 7070 & 6500. In the present market, which exhibits fairly strong bullish undertone, I believe that DJIA is likely to find good support at the 7500 level.


Chart 2: DJIA's daily chart as at 6/4/2009 (Source: Stockcharts.com)

Since taking a cautiously bullish stance on the market, I believe that we should use any price weakness to accumulate stocks.
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3 comments:

  1. ACTuesday, April 07, 2009 1:45:00 PM

    I think the curent mkt will consolidate downward a bit to cope with recently uptrend and the new bad factors that currently start flooding the market.

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  2. Alex LuWednesday, April 08, 2009 8:26:00 AM

    Hi AC,

    I share your take on the market. If you have been observing the market, you would see intra-day corrections happening on daily basis, for the past few days. What most traders are fearful of is a few days of price drop and that has not happened yet. I believe this could happen soon. Let's wait & see how the market digest the huge volume of the past 4 days (of above 800 million units a day)!

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  3. kanno8Wednesday, April 08, 2009 12:22:00 PM

    hi alex,
    what do you mean by 'intra day corrections happening on daily basis'?enjoy reading your blog n still in the learning curve..keep it up.thank you.

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