Chart 1: KLCI's daily chart as at Sept 9, 2009 (Source: Quickcharts)
The weekly MACD is struggling to avoid a bearish hook-down (denoted as 'A'). In the past 2 occasions when we saw these signals (denoted as 'B' & 'C'), we were faced with rude surprises when the market hit us with a sharp sell-off. Can the same happen again? Nobody can tell. We can see that the next horizontal resistance is about 1280-1300.
Chart 2: KLCI's weekly chart as at Sept 9, 2009 (Source: Quickcharts)
For now, we can say that the market may be favorable for the next 2-3 weeks & the upside is about 1270-1300.
Whatever human named them, I think this rally may not run more than 2 weeks.
ReplyDeleteToday profit taking could be attributed to a major political decision.
The market need a theme. Without that it is all one day show. Retailers will not enter. I think there will be good chance that steel and resources based stocks will rise.
Well, put it this way, if the raya Ang Pow did not come, I think the general investors and public will be disappointed??
Have luck.
NEW YORK, Sept 9 (Reuters) - The U.S. economic recovery is beginning to start but interest rate hikes are "some time down the road", Chicago Federal Reserve President Charles Evans said on Wednesday.
ReplyDelete"I think the recovery is beginning to start," said Evans, who is expecting economic growth in the 2.5 to 3 percent range over the next 18 months.
"But the unemployment rate will continue to rise probably for the next six months peaking a little bit over 10 percent and then coming down. I think unemployment will be high for a very uncomfortable period of time," Evans said in response to questions from the audience after giving a speech at the Council of Foreign Relations in New York.
Evans, who is a voting member of the central bank's Federal Open Market Committee in 2009, said that while rate hikes were "some time down the road", the Fed would want to be more aggressive compared to the tightening cycle between 2004 and 2006.
(Reporting by Kristina Cooke, Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)
新聞]中銀：港經濟止跌回升
ReplyDelete2009-09-09 16:31:00
最新一期《中銀經濟月刊》發表報告預測，下半年香港經濟有機會止跌回升，但復蘇中仍存諸多不確定因素。
在預期美國及中國內地的貨幣政策未來半年都不至於出現根本逆轉、外圍也不再爆發重大突發性危機的前提下，報告認為香港經濟走勢應會較原來悲觀的預期為佳，並把香港經濟全年預測從負的百分之四調整為負的百分之二點五。失業率盡管仍有再度攀升的可能，但在年底之前應不會高於百分之六。
在通脹方面，報告認為，香港與全球一樣，面對產能過剩、工資水平受壓和商品原材料泡沫散去的情況，消費物價通脹壓力不大，惟資產價格在流動資金泛濫的情況下可能持續偏高。
香港經濟今年第二季同比跌幅從首季的百分之七點八收窄至百分之三點八，環比更出現止跌回升。報告指出，次季香港經濟跌幅收窄，主要是因為私人消費開支和商品出口的跌幅顯著減少。惟私人投資和存貨仍沒有起色，反映香港私人企業對經濟前景仍深具戒心。
盡管將全年經濟跌幅預測收窄至百分之二點五，但報告同時亦指出，美國樓市續跌，加上歐洲和日本經濟衰退程度更為嚴重，經濟觸底復蘇時間更為滯後，令外圍需求短期內難為香港經濟帶來支持。光靠中國增加投資和重建庫存及儲備所帶來的進口增長，香港轉口的反彈恐難以持續。而缺少了外部引擎，今年下半年香港經濟的復蘇亦不會有力及全面。
（中通社）
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=3m&s=%5EDJI&l=on&z=m&q=c&p=b&p=v&p=m50&a=m26-12-9&a=r14&a=ss&c=&c=%5EDJI
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHSI&t=6m&l=on&z=m&q=c&p=b,m10,m50,v&a=m26-12-9,r14,ss&c=
All show uptrend