Monday, March 01, 2010

Astro may have a bullish breakout

Last week, Astro All Asia Network Plc ('Astro') won a ruling containing various awards amounting to US$230 million (about RM786.6 million) in restitution in its arbitration proceedings against a number of entities in the Lippo Group including the public-listed PT First Media. For more, go here.

Despite the favorable decision, the share price of Astro did not jump. The reason is the serious concern on how Astro can enforce the decision. However, it is interesting to note that Astro share price has now surpassed the third fan line of a Trend Fan drawn onto Astro chart. with this breakout, Astro may have turned bullish. Its immediate horizontal resistance is at RM4.20-25 & thereafter at RM4.60-65.


Chart: Astro's weekly chart as at Mar 1, 2010_3.00pm (Source: Quickcharts)
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12 comments:

  1. Little MickeyMonday, March 01, 2010 4:36:00 PM

    Hi Alex,

    Could you comment on Genting Bhd? Seemed to have selling pressure.

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  2. Alex LuMonday, March 01, 2010 5:17:00 PM

    Hi Little Mickey,

    Genting rose from a low of RM3.20 in March last year to a high of RM7.80 in October last year (& again in January this year). So, it made a gain of RM4.60. It can retrace 38% or 50% or 62% of this gain. If it does, the stock may ease back to RM4.95 or RM5.50 or RM6.05. This coincides with the strong horizontal support at RM6.00, RM5.50 & RM5.00.

    There may be some fundamental reasons for the current selldown. Since I do not know what they are, I am relying on technical reading to guide me.

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  3. AnonymousMonday, March 01, 2010 8:56:00 PM

    Thanks for the analysis. I will take a look at this counter.

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  4. cheerMonday, March 01, 2010 9:18:00 PM

    This comment has been removed by the author.

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  5. cheerMonday, March 01, 2010 9:19:00 PM

    How do you think of D&O? Going to uptrend soon ?

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  6. KENNY BLOGMonday, March 01, 2010 9:39:00 PM

    I prefer GENM over Genting.
    However, GENM hasn't drop much, not yet to 2.50 where i think i will buy a lot.
    Genting also not bad, but share price is a bit expensive when regards to fundamental, I would wait for RM5.40 to enter.
    I observed one phenomenon, where both stocks give away dividend in the range of 7.2 to 7.4 sen. But this make different dividend yields(Genting=1%, GENM=3%).
    So, in the long run,I prefer GENM because apart for capital appreciation, i still can receive dividend! Surprise could happen when GENM declare capital distribution or special dividend!!!
    What say U, Alex?

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  7. Mother of TwoTuesday, March 02, 2010 12:17:00 PM

    Hi Alex,
    Can I buy into Measat at this price RM2.07? Thank you
    Grace

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  8. Alex LuTuesday, March 02, 2010 2:04:00 PM

    Hi Cheers,

    D&O has been trading in a sideway manner for the past few weeks. We do not know whether its next move will be up or down.

    For FYE31/12/2009, it reported a net profit of RM13.9 million on revenue of RM208 million. EPS for FY2009 was about 1.91 sen. That means D&O is now trading at a PER of 36 times. Without looking into its future prospect, I can only say that it's a pricey stock.

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  9. Alex LuTuesday, March 02, 2010 2:27:00 PM

    Hi Kenny,

    I agree with your analysis. GenM is also my preferred pick amongst the listed Genting companies. I expect the crowd that has deserted GenM to return once the romancing of the new star, Genting SP had run its course. When investors have re-examine the strengths & weaknesses of the 2 companies, the choice will be pretty obvious. Which will you go for: GenM, with cash in hand of RM6.54 billion (or, cash per share of RM1.15), earning 23 sen per share or, Genting SP, a new start-up with borrowings of S$3.65 billion (or, gearing of 88%).

    When interest rates normalize in the months ahead, Genting group would have to distribute the cash accordingly in order to save on interest expenses. This could only be done by channeling the cash reserve in GenM up to Genting Holdings and then from there down to Genting SP & other cash-strapped operating companies. The handsome dividend payout will be forthcoming within the next 12 months.

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  10. Alex LuTuesday, March 02, 2010 3:34:00 PM

    Hi Grace,

    Measat is still in a downtrend where the breakout level is at RM2.20-30.

    Measat's financial performance has improved in the last 2 quarters (QE30/9/2009 & QE31/12/2009), where it managed to report pre-tax profit of RM23-24 million on turnover of RM63-70 million. Excluding exceptional items, it is possible to estimate that Measat may be able to achieve a net profit of about RM80 million a year or a full-year EPS of 20 sen. This means that Measat is now trading at a PER of 10 times. This is relatively attractive for a business with very little competition. If more business is secured, its bottom-line would improve. A case can be make for a long-term BUY for this stock. However, we must take note that the stock is still in a downtrend and any significant long position should only be establised when the stock has surpassed the downtrend line at RM2.20-30.

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  11. MaxWealth88Tuesday, March 02, 2010 5:23:00 PM

    hi Alex,

    what is your comment on Success? it's a great company with strong fundamentals but notice the price can't move.

    thanks
    maxwealth

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  12. Mother of TwoTuesday, March 02, 2010 9:05:00 PM

    Hi Alex,
    Appreciated your comments on Measat and thanks for showing me the financial information too.
    Grace

    ReplyDelete