Monday, June 27, 2011

CPO- to test its RM3000 psychological support soon.

As at 4.00pm, CPO futures for August was trading at RM3086, down RM30 from last Friday close. When you look at the CPO chart bellow, we see the Parabolic SAR (short for 'stop-and-reversal' indicator) has moved above the CPO price. This negative sign could signal the continuation of the downtrend for CPO. The immediate support for CPO is at RM3000. If the psychological RM3000 mark is violated, CPO could drop further & test its uptrend line support at RM2600. With this correction in CPO, the outlook for Plantation stocks is likely to turn negative.


Chart 1: CPO's weekly chart as at June 24, 2011 (source: ifs.marketcenter.com)



Chart 2: CPO's weekly chart from October 2008 to June 24, 2011 (source: ifs.marketcenter.com)

Presently, the weekly chart for Plantation index is still positive. The support for Plantation index is at the 40-week SMA line at 7700. If this level is violated, the uptrend for plantation stocks would be over & they would reverse.


Chart 3: Plantation index's weekly chart as at June 24, 2011 (Source: Tradesignum)

This post reminded me of my post in April 2008 on CPO breaking the uptrend line then as well as the reversal for the plantation sector in that month. Are we about to see something similar? We will have to wait & see.
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5 comments:

  1. BIG BOY BIG KIDMonday, June 27, 2011 4:52:00 PM

    CPO price sholud go lower...and lower as the Chineses/China are facing inflation now....

    Once the buying power is weakening....it will go back to RM2000.......

    If dumping CPO stocks happens...then just like oil price .....will getting lower.....

    ReplyDelete
  2. luckystock2Monday, June 27, 2011 11:00:00 PM

    Hi Alex ,
    Can you commentthe current price movement and the prospect of P&O ?
    Tx very much !

    ReplyDelete
  3. vincentMonday, June 27, 2011 11:02:00 PM

    Hi Alex,

    What do you think about FITTERS?Have it break above the resistance?

    ReplyDelete
  4. primepengMonday, June 27, 2011 11:12:00 PM

    palm oil is now on supply excess. That the price pushes down from weak destock. stockpile is accumulating the palm oil and not able to sell them quick enough as the demand may not outpace the supply. Previous good weather has been supporting the growth and production. I found out this from the online news dated two days ago.

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  5. newbieTuesday, June 28, 2011 11:19:00 AM

    Good morning,Alex,
    I saw the reports of TECGUAN and was quite surprised at the improvement of its earnings.It is trading at a very attractive price,safe for its low liquidity.Is the market seeing something which I don't to value it this way?Please advice.
    Thank you in advance,Alex.

    ReplyDelete