Tuesday, July 19, 2011

Mahsing- dropping despite a very successful launch

Mahsing was reported to have raked in a sale of RM427 million from the launch of its latest property development, The Icon (here). CIMB reiterated its BUY call on the stock, with a target price of RM3.30. Despite this bullish news, the stock which broke to the downside of its triangle formation, continued to fall (see Chart 1). As at the end of the morning session, Mahsing dropped to its intermediate uptrend line support at RM2.15.


Chart 1: Mahsing's daily chart as at July 19, 2011_12.30pm (Source: Quickcharts)

From the weekly chart below, we can see that Mahsing's support levels are at the intermediate uptrend line (s1-s1) at RM2.15, the horizontal support at RM1.95-2.00 & the long-term uptrend line (SS) at RM1.50.


Chart 2: Mahsing's weekly chart as at July 19, 2011_12.30pm (Source: Quickcharts)

Despite the very bearish market sentiment presently, I believe the fall in Mahsing share price is overdone. As such, the stock may enjoy a technical rebound shortly. Mahsing could trade between RM2.15 & RM2.50 for the next few weeks before we can determine the next price direction.
at

10 comments:

  1. vincentTuesday, July 19, 2011 5:03:00 PM

    Hi alex,

    Can you comment on HIRO as it keep dropping after splited? Shall we still keep into this stock?

    ReplyDelete
  2. Alex LuTuesday, July 19, 2011 6:02:00 PM

    Hi vincent

    I am not familiar with HIRO's recent corporate exercise. I observed that many stocks going thru favorable corporate exercise, involving share split & bonus issue, have not fared very well lately. This is a sign of the poor market sentiment. In a bullish market, investors clamor for more shares. In an uncertain market, more shares means more way to lose money. Hiro rose from a low of RM0.15 in 2009 to a recent high of RM0.83- a rise of 450%. Some profit-taking is inevitable after such a spectacular rise.

    You may want to check out the company's financial statements to ascertain whether the financial performance is still in tact.

    ReplyDelete
  3. primepengTuesday, July 19, 2011 9:00:00 PM

    what software do you use to work on the noise filtering? I believe the price could be predicted more efficiently with both filtered and unfiltered. thank you.

    ReplyDelete
  4. 富升Wednesday, July 20, 2011 8:34:00 AM

    First of all, thank you very much for your information. Everyday when I switch on my laptop the first things is to suf your blog.

    May I know where ( which webside) we can check one share' historical P/E ratio?

    Sometime, by checking alone the share price does not tell whether the share expensive or not. Need to refer to P/E ratio as well.

    If you know please teach me. Thank you!

    ReplyDelete
  5. IvanWednesday, July 20, 2011 10:24:00 AM

    Hi Alex,

    Would you mind to explain to me:
    a) what the challenges to become a successful remisier?
    b) How to overcome it?
    c) What is the future and career path to be a remisier?

    ReplyDelete
  6. Alex LuThursday, July 21, 2011 3:55:00 PM

    Hi Ivan

    You asked a tough question- to be a remisier or not to be a remisier? The short answer is don't! It is not an easy job, dealing with other people's money & emotion in an environment of uncertainty. To top it up, you are working in a profession that is facing reducing income due to fee compression.

    Sadly, most remisiers do not challenge themselves to learn more in order to do better. Most just take phone calls & execute orders, which may explain why they should not be too highly paid. Those who do more, are few & far in between. Since the industry is fraught with uncertainty, it is hard to make a case that better service means better return for the clients. If you are looking for self-esteem or self-actualization in your vocation, you probably won't get that from being a remisier.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Alex LuThursday, July 21, 2011 4:18:00 PM

    Hi 富升

    I must admit that your comment has brightened up my day. It is like a glass of cold water in the desert!

    Where do you get historical PE? I don't know of any websote that offers something like that. For me, I use a range of 5 to 20 times, depending on the overall stock market outlook, the industry, the cycle of that industry, the company size and the management. If you are looking at a big blue chip operating in consumer stable, you may expect a PE of 15-20 times. If you looking at a company operating in a cyclical industry, you have to adjust for the cycle of that industry. When that industry is at the peak, with everyone operating at maximum profit, you must scale back the PE. After the peak, the preformance will be downhill. Similar, after the trough, subsequent performance can only get better. So, at that point in time, you should not use PE to value the stock. Book value would be a better approach.

    Of course, we have to be conciously sifting thru all these factors when we do a valuation. It is easier said than done. Sometime in the heat of the moment, we overlooked something. It is bad because people may lose money because you have not been careful.

    That's all I have to say about PE or valuation using the fundamental approach. Do keep up your regular visit and post your comment here.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Alex LuThursday, July 21, 2011 4:22:00 PM

    Hi primepeng

    I don't know of any such software for filtering. You can use moving averages which smooth out the sharp spikes. That may help.

    ReplyDelete
  9. IvanFriday, July 22, 2011 3:14:00 PM

    Bro Alex,

    Thanks for the sharing.
    Lost myself in a labour market. Dono which field that I shall go for. .

    Young man - at age of 28 , shall not make a mistake in choosing wrong career anymore :(

    ReplyDelete
  10. luminaire128Wednesday, January 04, 2012 9:47:00 PM

    Hi Alex,

    How do you see MahSing now? Is it okay to enter now?

    Thanks.
    luminaire

    ReplyDelete