Monday, July 18, 2011

Market Outlook as at July 18, 2011

Our FBM-KLCI dropped 10 points to 1567 at 11.45am today. It broke below the horizontal support at 1576 as well as the 20-day SMA line at 1575. Its next support is at the uptrend line at 1564. A break of the uptrend line could lead to a sharp fall to the next horizontal support at 1524 & possibly the psychological 1500 level.


Chart 1: FBM-KLCI's daily chart as at July 18, 2011_11.30am (Source: Quickcharts)

From the weekly chart, we can see that our market could be tracing out a market top similar to the last quarter of 2007 & first quarter 2008. I think the crucial level is the long-term uptrend line support at 1550 (which coincides with the 20-week SMA line). If this line is violated, there is a high chance our market could reverse into either a sideway market or a bear market.


Chart 2: FBM-KLCI's weekly chart as at July 18, 2011_11.30am (Source: Quickcharts)

With our market trading at a tipping point, we should exercise careful discretion & avoid trying to trade large position despite what looks like very attractive prices.
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3 comments:

  1. tanMonday, July 18, 2011 4:23:00 PM

    hi alex,

    thanks for the reply on e&o. appreciate.

    i had enter at a very wrong timing at 1.53. i think is time to cut lost.

    thanks

    ReplyDelete
  2. leslieroycarterTuesday, July 19, 2011 11:08:00 AM

    Hi Alex:
    Is there the very possibility that the bear is showing sign of its ugly face ?

    ReplyDelete
  3. Alex LuTuesday, July 19, 2011 5:57:00 PM

    Hi leslieroycarter

    Again we are trying to read the tea leaves & make intelligent guess as to where we are heading. If my past attempts can be a guide, I would probably get it wrong again.

    I hope we would not see a Babson Break; named after Roger Babson, the man who predicted the 1929 crash. That 3%-price drop in 1929 heralded the beginning of the Great Depression. Today, the world is filled with financial & economic challenges and yet we find people buying million-dollar homes, stocked up on luxurious goods & expensive cars. Consumers' debts are mounting as everyone- whether rich or poor- wants to ride on the ostentatious consumption train. I hope the turn of this century will be different from the turn of the last century. When the music finally stops, many will end up in the poor house if they are not careful.

    ReplyDelete