Some analysts do not expect the Budget to be announced this Friday would raise the excise duties on liquor. If the government choose to do so, it would be the sixth consecutive increase and the impact of higher price of liquor would drive more consumers to purchase illicitly imported alcohol (here). Despite this observation, investors are playing safe & decided to sell off the shares in Carlsbg & GAB. You can see from the charts below that both stocks have broken below their 3-year uptrend line. Unless a recovery happens quickly, these stocks are expected to slide further.
Chart 1: Carlsbg's weekly chart as at Oct 3, 2011 (Source: Tradesignum)
Chart 2: GAB's weekly chart as at Oct 3, 2011 (Source: Tradesignum)
Hi Alex ,
ReplyDeleteCan you comment on the market outlook recently?
Possible a reversal or just a bear rally?
Tx!
Hi luckystock2
ReplyDeleteI still feel that it is a bear rally which could touch 1420-1440. While the European debts problem has moved off the front page (to the business section), it is still not resolved. Until then, this problem can flare up & trigger another bout of selling.
Nevertheless, we can see investors' risk appetite has improved. This led to increase in the prices of equity & commodities & a drop in the prices of gold & possibly USD in the days ahead.