Chart 1: Carlsbg's monthly chart as at Dec 1, 2011 (Source: Tradesignum)
You may compare Carlsbg's current price breakout to GAB's breakout in November when it surpassed its all-time high of RM10.40. GAB continued to rise steadily, albeit on thin volume.
Chart 2: GAB's monthly chart as at Dec 1, 2011 (Source: Tradesignum)
GAB & Carlsbg's Financial Performance
Since Carlsbg's acquisition of its Singapore sister company in October 2009, its financial performance has caught up substantially with GAB. Based on the results for QE30/9/2011, the last 4 quarters' turnover of Carlsbg is nearly equal to that of GAB (RM1.48 billion for Carlsbg vs. RM1.57 billion for GAB). However, in term of net profit, Carlsbg still lagged behind GAB (at RM159 million vs. GAB's RM198 billion).
Chart 3: Carlsbg's last 24 quarterly results
Chart 4: GAB's last 24 quarterly results
Valuation
Based on the closing price of RM8.14 at the end of the morning session, Carlsbg is now trading at a PE of 15.7 times (based on last 4 quarters' EPS of 52 sen). GAB is now trading at a PE of 18.8 times (based on the close of RM12.42 & last 4 quarters' EPS of 66 sen). If Carlsbg were to command a similar PE as GAB, then the stock may rise to RM9.78- a potential upside of 20%.
Conclusion
Based on bullish technical breakout & possible catching-up of PE multiple, Carlsbg could be a good trading BUY.
Ha ha.. It's the jolly season for merry merry and yam yam yam seng "sin" beverages..
ReplyDeleteExpect fantastic Q eps for the season..! Cheers.,,
Hi Alex
ReplyDeleteCan you comment on UOA development? What is its resistance and support level. As UOA still trading significant below its IPO price of RM 2.60, will UOA subject to window dressing by end of the month?
Fundamentally, UOA currently trading at annualized PE of just 5x based on FY11 EPS of 26sen. UOA also in net cash position, as much as 25sen/share and based on UOA dividend policy to payout 30-50% net profit as dividend, UOA potential dividend range from 8sen- 13sen, give rise to yield of 6-10%.
Hi Hng,
ReplyDeleteThe results for UOA is quite commendable but alas the market is worried about the property sector outlook for next year. The stock is likely to slide further & retest its low at RM1.16 (or, RM1.20 level). I believe that level is a safe level to slowly accumulate this stock.