Market Outlook as at September 19, 2013

The global equity markets rallied on news that the US Fed has decided to defer the 'tapering' of its bond buying program of USD85 billion a month. Everybody is wondering, Who would have known? Well, we can point to the last 2 months of less-than impressive job reports as the reason for the deferment of the tapering.

The next question to ponder is whether the Fed would seriously think about tapering next month when the market will be wrestling with the potential US government shut-down due to the stubborn refusal of the Republicans to extend the US debt ceiling. Surely, the US stock markets would not be able to stomach these twin threats. The strong rebound in the US stock markets shows that the traders are making hail hay while there is sunshine!

With the deferment of the tapering, funds may flow back again to some emerging markets. This will explain the strong rebound in our Bursa Malaysia. This inflow would give a boost to our MYR and that would be bad news for exporters that had out-performed the market over the past few weeks (on the assumption that they would benefit from the weaker MYR).

From the chart below, we can see that FBMKLCI has broken above its medium-term downtrend, RR at 1780 as well as the expanding triangle, ABCD, also at 1780. With this breakout, FBMKLCI will soon test the 1795-1800 level. Until another tapering news from Washington, our market is likely to inch higher.


Chart: FBMKLCI's daily chart as at September 2013_3.00pm (Source: Quickcharts)