Maybank & CIMB- Just some random thoughts

Lately, we noticed that Maybank has been relatively weak. If Maybank were to go below RM9.40, it would break the horizontal line as well as the long-term uptrend line. Maybank may follow the footsteps of CIMB which broke its horizontal-cum-uptrend line support at RM7.55 in January 2011. Since then, CIMB has been moving sideway, between RM6.20 & RM8.40. See Chart 1 & 2 below.


Chart 1: Maybank's weekly chart as at Nov 21, 2013_11.00am (source; quickcharts)


Chart 2: CIMB's weekly chart as at Nov 21, 2013_11.00am (source; quickcharts)

A study of Maybank & CIMB's monthly charts revealed that Maybank moved sideway for 4 years from 2004 to 2008, supported by the line Am-Am (see Chart 3). The breakdown of that line- coinciding with the 2008 US Financial Crisis & its ill-timed acquisition of BII in Indonesia- sent the stock plunging below RM3.00. From Chart 4, we can see that CIMB has been in a similar holding pattern for the past 3 years- supported by the line, Ac-Ac (at RM7.00). If CIMB breaks below the RM7.00 level, would the fall be as sharp as Maybank's fall in 2008?

From Chart 3, we can see that Maybank had a sharp spike-up in January 2008- just before the selldown. Would CIMB do the same today, i.e. spike up to RM8.00-8.20? If so, should we consider selling CIMB into strength at RM8.00.

From Chart 4, we can see that CIMB's 2-year uptrend from January 2009 & January 2011 topped off after a double-top at RM8.30-8.40. The first visit to RM8.40 was in January 2011 and the next visit was in June-July 2011. Would Maybank revisit its July 2013 high of RM10.55? If so, should we consider selling Maybank into strength at RM10.50.


Chart 3: Maybank's monthly chart as at Nov 21, 2013_11.00am (source; quickcharts)


Chart 4: CIMB's monthly chart as at Nov 21, 2013_11.00am (source; quickcharts)

Note:
In addition to the disclaimer in the preamble to my blog, I hereby confirm that I do not have any relevant interest in, or any interest in the acquisition or disposal of, Maybank & CIMB.