Crude Oil just broke below USD70

On August 17 & 18, I've made some comments about the outlook of the Crude Oil (here) & (here).

Back then, we saw the Light Crude Oil future contract (as traded on NYMEX) tested the uptrend line at USD70 & re-bounded to a high of about USD73.80. Thereafter, it has been drifting downward & yesterday, it broke through the uptrend line & psychological support of USD70.

Looking at the chart below, you can see that the correction this time (denoted as B) is somewhat similar to the correction during the period of Nov & Dec 2005 (denoted as A). Crude Oil is now at the lower band & it may stage a rebound just like in Dec 2005. The important difference is that the Bollinger Bands in the earlier period seems to be tightening (or, merely moving parallel each other) but this time, the Bollimger Bands appear to be expanding. Since the direction of the current move is downward & it has just broken below the uptrend line, there is a higher probability that Crude Oil may not re-bound from the lower band. Instead, it may break through the lower band & drop sharply. Well, let's wait & see.