Wednesday, November 08, 2006

Mieco- Are you about to break free?

Background

I have a post on Mieco in September. Since then, the share price has recovered from the low of RM0.93 to prices ranging from RM1.10 to RM1.20. But, compared to Heveaboard & Evergreen, the price movement of Mieco is much slower.

To recap, Mieco is involved in the manufacturing of chipboards while Heveaboard & Evergreen are involved in the manufacturing of medium density fibreboards & particleboards, respectively. All three companies were badly affected by intense competition in 2005 due a glut in this sector. However, the worst could be behind them, as their product prices have recovered due to sharp rise in the prices of plywood. These products are viewed as near substitutes for one another.

3 Charts compared

On October 5, I have recommended a BUY on Evergreen as the stock has broken above its medium-term downtrend at the RM0.90 level. Since that breakout, Evergreen has risen to a high of RM1.28. See Chart 1 below.

















Chart 1: Evergreeen's weekly chart as at Nov 7

I've missed Heveaboard's bullish breakout of its trading range at the RM1.20 level in August. After that breakout, the stock shot to RM1.55 & therafter it consolidated between RM1.40 & 1.50 for the past 3 months. Yesterday, it broke above the RM1.55 level with thin volume. This could be the beginning of the next leg up for the stock, subject to confirmation. See Chart 2 & 3 below.

















Chart 2: Heveaboard's weekly chart as at Nov 7


















Chart 3: Heveaboard's daily chart as at Nov 7

Finally, we come to Mieco. This stock is trapped in a trading range between RM1.00 & 1.20. A break above RM1.20 (or, RM1.25, if you're really stringent) could be the beginning of the bullish phase for Mieco. See Chart 4 Below.

















Chart 4: Mieco's weekly chart as at Nov 7

Conclusion

Mieco looks like a good medium-term investment though what's lacking is a bullish breakout. For that, we have Heveaboard. The latter has just broken out of its trading range at the RM1.55 level. Again, we have to be careful as Heveaboard's breakout was not accompanied by big volume. As for Evergreen, the share price may consolidate for a while after its recent sharp rise.

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