Friday, April 02, 2010

Lingui & Eksons joined the timber play band wagon

Another two timber stocks, Lingui & Eksons have broken above their resistance and could well be commencing on their upleg.


Chart 1: Lingui's weekly chart as at Apr 1, 2010_4.46pm (Source: Quickcharts)


Chart 2: Eksons's weekly chart as at Apr 1, 2010_4.45pm (Source: Quickcharts)
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17 comments:

  1. HengFriday, April 02, 2010 7:50:00 PM

    Hi Alex,
    Any comment on Subur? I notice you din't mention about it.

    How about Maybulk? The share move sideway for about 1year between RM3.00-RM3.30? Is it good for long term investment? What is the price to enter for Maybulk?

    Thank in advance.
    Heng.

    ReplyDelete
  2. ronnieSunday, April 04, 2010 1:37:00 AM

    Mr Alex,

    What are your top five Buys for this year based purely on your technical analysis ?

    ReplyDelete
  3. KENNY BLOGSunday, April 04, 2010 3:39:00 PM

    Hi Alex, long time didnt visit your blog.
    I have some doubt regarding DRB-Hicom, i bought it quite long time ago, and i didnt monitor it for long time, when i open my portfolio, i realize this stock gives me paper gain of 4 figures!
    So, u know any reason behind it?
    Should i sell it for the heavy speculation by the market or i should keep it for the strong fundamental behind the rally?

    ReplyDelete
  4. 仑襁Sunday, April 04, 2010 6:32:00 PM

    This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  5. 仑襁Sunday, April 04, 2010 6:33:00 PM

    MR Alex,
    can u give me some comments on daiboci? i just bought it recently at the price of 3.67

    do u think it is suitable to keep it as long term investment?

    looking forward for your advice. Thanks

    regards,
    Clc

    ReplyDelete
  6. MarcoSunday, April 04, 2010 10:33:00 PM

    Is Evergreen one of the timber stock?

    ReplyDelete
  7. UnknownMonday, April 05, 2010 10:28:00 AM

    Hi Alex,

    Can I hace your comment about the share Xinquan (5155)?Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
  8. AnonymousMonday, April 05, 2010 10:55:00 AM

    hi alex. market up so strong recently. is it time to take profit now? will market correct soon?

    ReplyDelete
  9. cheehengMonday, April 05, 2010 11:14:00 AM

    Dear Alex,

    I bought some below 80 sens.Still holding it.Can you comment on Nylex ?
    It's trading at very low PER.

    Thanks.

    Anthony Ng

    ReplyDelete
  10. Alex LuMonday, April 05, 2010 11:53:00 AM

    Hi Heng,

    Subur should take part in the timber play. The stock is in a gradual uptrend, with support at RM1.90. A parallel line can be drawn which may act as a resistance at RM2.65.

    I post on Maybulk recently where I have rated the stock as a HOLD. Chartwise, the stock is moving sideway with a downward bias. The support is at RM2.90 while resistance is at RM3.30.

    http://nexttrade.blogspot.com/2010/02/results-update-maybulk-has-just.html

    ReplyDelete
  11. Alex LuMonday, April 05, 2010 11:55:00 AM

    Hi ronnie.

    I don't draw up a list of top five Buys. If you ask me what's my top picks for now, they are timber stocks. I believe the play has just started. If you have not purchased any, take a look at Lingui, Eksons & WTK.

    ReplyDelete
  12. Alex LuMonday, April 05, 2010 12:01:00 PM

    Hi KENNY,

    I have no idea what is driving DRBHicom upward. From the chart, we can see its immediate support at RM1.20 & its immediate resistance at RM1.30-35. If it can break above the recent high of RM1.33, it may enter into an uptrend.

    ReplyDelete
  13. Alex LuMonday, April 05, 2010 12:13:00 PM

    Hi 仑襁,

    Daibochi's uptrend has weakened quite a bit since early March. It is now resting on the 20-day SMA line support at RM3.60. It may break below this line & seek out the 50-day SMA line at RM3.40.

    If this stock were to break the 50-day SMA line, the technical outlook may turn bearish. Until then, you may hold onto the stock as the technical reading is neutral. However, I am not a big fan of this stock. See my link below.

    http://nexttrade.blogspot.com/2010/01/daiboci-time-to-take-profit.html

    ReplyDelete
  14. Alex LuMonday, April 05, 2010 12:16:00 PM

    Hi Marco said...,

    Evergreen is not a timber stock. Its products are substitutes for timber products, such as plywood. As such, it tends to move in line with timber stocks.

    ReplyDelete
  15. Alex LuMonday, April 05, 2010 12:21:00 PM

    Hi phkoay,

    Xinquan is in a short-term uptrend, with support at RM1.20-22. Its immediate resistance is at RM1.30 & thereafter at RM1.45.

    http://nexttrade.blogspot.com/2010/03/xinquan-could-be-good-value-stock.html

    ReplyDelete
  16. Alex LuMonday, April 05, 2010 1:13:00 PM

    Hi wong,

    The FBM-KLCI has just surpassed the recent high of 1334 recorded on March 11. This means that the market is likely to go higher. Its immediate resistance at 1340-50.

    Having said that, I do agree that the market is at very elevated level. Here are a sampling of comments that warrant our attention:

    1) According to the Pragmatic Capitalist, "The latest data from Robert Shiller’s 10 year PE ratio shows the market currently at a 20.64 multiple. In his morning note, David Rosenberg noted that this is 26% higher than the long-run average."

    2) From Hussman: As of last week, the S&P 500 was priced to achieve an average annual total return of just 5.83% over the coming decade, based on our standard methodology. Prior to 1995, the lowest implied 10-year total returns priced into the S&P 500 in post-war data were:

    November 1961: Implied 10-year total return 6.26%.
    Actual 10-year subsequent return 6.16%

    October 1965: Implied 10-year total return 5.89%.
    Actual 10-year subsequent return 3.11%

    November 1968: Implied 10-year total return 6.19%.
    Actual 10-year subsequent return 2.51%

    August 1987: Implied 10-year total return 6.29%.
    Actual 10-year subsequent return 13.85%.

    3) From Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James: ~89% of the S&P 500 (SPX/1159.90) stocks are above their respective 200-day moving averages (DMAs) and consequently overbought. Likewise, ~86% of the SPX’s stocks are above their 50-DMAs, leaving the SPX, in the aggregate, roughly two standard deviations above its 50-DMA. Maybe that’s why the NYSE Overbought Indicator tagged a rare 90+ reading about a week ago, or why the S&P 500 relative strength index is above 90, both signaling that stocks are overbought.

    4) The market is getting too complacent as reflected in VIX trending to new lows for 2010. According to the Examiner, "In this case, the VIX is at very low levels, and the market bull is old. And if the trader legend W. D. Gann is right in that "time is more important then price," that means we should be cautious for a more volatile move, not a lesser one."

    Based on the above comments, one should exercise greater caution in this market. If you do not feel comfortable, reduce your long position accordingly.

    Relevant links:

    http://pragcap.com/is-the-stock-market-26-overvalued

    http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc100329.htm

    http://www.raymondjames.com/inv_strat.htm

    http://www.examiner.com/x-34234-Detroit-Day-Trader-Examiner~y2010m3d8-Is-the-VIX-telling-local-investors-the-market-is-too-complacent

    ReplyDelete
  17. Alex LuMonday, April 05, 2010 1:26:00 PM

    Hi cheeheng,

    For 1H2010 ended 30/11/2009, Nylex reported a net profit of RM21.6 million on a turnover of RM630 million. Based on this, its annualized EPS for FY2010 is about 11 sen. As such, Nylex (closed at RM0.75 last Friday) is now trading at a PER of 6.8 times. At that multiples, Nylex looks attractive. However, the market is concerned about its declining turnover (due to lower sale from its Industrial Chemical division) which has yet to show signs of a reversal.

    Chartwise, the stock is trading sideway with a downward bias. Support is at RM0.68-70, while resistance is at RM0.80-82.

    ReplyDelete