Chart: Malaysian Timber Products Prices (from Jan 2008 to March 2010) [Source: ITTO]
Friday, April 02, 2010
Timber products showing signs of recovery
According to the latest ITTO report, logs & timber products prices are inching up marginally in second half of March. This may account for the strong rally seen among timber stocks, such as JTiasa, TaAnn, Lingui & WTK. For the latest ITTO report, go here.
Chart: Malaysian Timber Products Prices (from Jan 2008 to March 2010) [Source: ITTO]
Chart: Malaysian Timber Products Prices (from Jan 2008 to March 2010) [Source: ITTO]
Alex,
ReplyDeletei bought heveaboard ,a company that in particleboard industry,what ur view on this industry ahead?short term and long term.How come heveaboard trade at such a low pe(about 3)is that any revision on the price in coming months.What is the fair pe for this company?Evergreen trade at pe 10,can heveaboard get a higher pe valuation like pe 5-6?
Hi 投资者-无情,
ReplyDeleteHeveaboard is trapped in a triangle, with upside breakout at RM0.70.
Based on its gross EPS of 21 sen, the PER of Heveaboard is about 3 times. However, after taking into account the 42.7 million warrant outstanding, the diluted EPS would be about 14 sen. This will give a PER of about 5 times. Even at this level, the stock looks attractive. This could be due to its high gearing of about 1.2 times.
Alex,
ReplyDeletei understand what u meant on the diluted earning,bt at the same time if all the warrant being converted,hevea will get extra 42mil cash,then if they use to pay back the debt,it will probably pull down the gearing and the interest.
I also find that the gearing ratio not a very suitable indicator for heveaboard due to it small market capital,the ratio can be pull down as long as the company going to issue new share.the high gearing only mean that the small company in a capital intensive biz.but once it enlarge the capital the ratio will come down directly.
Fundamental view,improve finance position,factory capacity and efficiency,plus better demand,the price should be higher than 2007 level where the gearing ratio is higher and lower earning...how come the price still far below.....
Gearing not a major issue due to it 24mil depreciation a year,if it manage to make 10mil a year meaning about 30mil cash flow in a year,it manage to pay back the loan within 5-6year,the best case if all the warrant being converted,i think less than 5 years it can be in nett cash position.Am i right in this analysis,what ur opinion and what ur view on the technical side.....
Alex,
ReplyDeletebeside heveaboard,what u think about other particleboard company like mieco,i find that particleboard industry oredy in downtrend for more than 5 years,do u think that now is the time for them to recover?