UEMBLDR has tested its strong horizontal support

UEMBLDR broke its strong horizontal support at RM1.15 on December 19, when it closed at the low of RM1.13. Over the next three days, UEMBLDR's share price recovered above that support; thus this strong horizontal support still remained in tact.

Over the next few weeks, UEMBLDR's share price could recover further to test its overhead resistance levels at RM1.30, RM1.45 & RM1.60. As such, UEMBLDR- at the overnight price of RM1.19- could be a fairly rewarding Trading Buy, for a holding period of 2 to 3 months. Setting a stoploss for this trade must take into account the next strong horizontal support (and a psychological support) of RM1.00. Thus, the stoploss maybe set at, say RM0.95.


Chart: UEMBLDR's weekly chart as at December 26 (courtesy of Quickcharts)

Merry Christmas & a Happy New Year!

2007 has been an exciting year. A year, which has started with great promise, has now come to a quiet end. While the index is higher than where it was at the beginning of the year, the traded volume has dwindled substantially. Huge swings in February & August had taken a heavy toll on many market participants.

During these holidays, let's take a break from the market & spend some time with family & friends. There should be sufficient time to make plans for the challenges and opportunities when 2008 is upon us. I like to take this opportunity to wish you and your family a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year!

Airasia's crude oil options dealing

In the Star newspaper today, there is a report that Airasia might suffer some setbacks from selling of call options relating to oil (go here). Buried deep in the report entitled "Caucasian crisis deepens" is this item, reproduced in full:

AirAsia Bhd's share price felt a downdraft over the last three weeks. That caused its price to spiral downwards amid heavy selling to a nine-month low of RM1.59 on Friday.

That occurred after two foreign brokers issued reports late last month, warning that the budget airline company was vulnerable to oil options it took on. Counter-parties could exercise their call options to buy oil from AirAsia at US$90 a barrel, which put it at risk if oil rose above that price.

Its CEO Datuk Tony Fernandes said those options “have been taken out with a plain vanilla option at US$79 two weeks ago.” Hence, “there is no exposure anymore” to the early option, he told this column.

It is observed the airline has started to show a trend of high growth as its operating profit rose to RM145.7mil in its first quarter ended Sept 30, 2007 compared with RM52.8mil in the same quarter last year. This could be attributed to economies of scale as Asia's biggest budget airline rapidly expanded under a management astute at managing its fleet operations and finances.

I have highlighted the important part of this report in bold & italic. There are 2 possibilities regarding Airasia's dealing in call options relating to oil.

• Firstly, Airasia might have sold or written these call options because it felt that oil prices were heading lower & it could do without too much hedging or it might benefit from falling oil prices. Subsequently, the oil prices took a tumble. At that point of time, Airasia could do 2 things: it could choose to do nothing & continue to enjoy the falling oil prices, or it could buy new call options (plain vanilla option, in Tony's word) at lower prices in order to re-establish its hedge against future hike in oil prices.
  

• Secondly, Airasia could have sold or written these call options in order to benefit from a correction in oil prices. After oil prices had fallen off, Airasia went into the market to buy new call options (plain vanilla option, in Tony's word again) at lower prices; thus benefiting from the correct prediction of the direction of oil prices.

What is the difference between these 2 scenarios? In the first scenario, Airasia would be viewed as a dynamic airline that watches its most important cost component (oil prices) carefully & actively managing the hedging of this cost component. In the second scenario, Airasia is an overly aggressive company that crossed the line between hedging & speculation in its dealing in call options relating to oil. I do not have the fact to come to a definite conclusion. My feeling is that Airasia is a well-managed company which is not likely to engage in speculative activity as feared by some.


Chart: Crude Oil chart as at December 21 (courtesy of SuperCharts by Omega Research)

UMcca reported big jump in net profit

UMcca has just announced its results for QE31/10/2007. Its net profit increased sharply by 62.2% q-o-q or 122.5% y-o-y to RM27.7 million while its turnover also increased by 39.7% q-o-q or 87.6% y-o-y to RM65.1 million. If you compared its last 4 quarters' results with the preceding 4 quarters', you will see that its net profit has jumped by 172% from RM28.6 million to RM77.7 million, while turnover has increased by 62.2% from RM111 million to RM181 million.

Based on its closing price of RM7.20 as at December 21 & its last 4 quarters' EPS totaling 58.0 sen, UMcca is now trading at a trailing PE of 12.4 times. I believe that there is still further upside of about 15-20% to this stock in the medium-term.



The share price of UMcca has been rising in a steady uptrend until mid-August 2007. Then, it went on a sharp rise- riding on the crest of a boom in the price of CPO. From a low of RM4.88 in mid-August, the share rose to above RM7.00 today. In the short-term, one can expect a fair bit of volatility on this stock. Despite the potential upside in the stock, a correction of its sharp price gain cannot be ruled out.


Chart: UMcca's weekly chart as at December 21 (courtesy of Quickcharts)

Based on the good results, UMcca is still a BUY for the medium-term.

Haio's good performance continued

Haio reported its results for QE31/10/2007 recently. Its net profit increased by 28.8% q-o-q or 84.2% y-o-y to RM9.1 million while its turnover has grown 35.8% q-o-q or 92.3% y-o-y to RM80.5 million. If you compared its last 4 quarters' results with the preceding 4 quarters', you will see that its net profit has jumped by 116% from RM13.4 million to RM28.9 million, while turnover has increased by 63.1% from RM152 million to RM248 million.

Based on its closing price of RM3.26 as at December 21 & its last 4 quarters' EPS totaling 40.3 sen, Haio is now trading at a trailing PE of 8 times. This means that Haio is still relatively inexpensive.



Haio is still moving in a strong & steep uptrend. Immediate uptrend line support is RM2.95-3.00.

Chart: Haio's weekly chart as at December 21 (courtesy of Quickcharts)

Based on cheap valuation, Haio is still a good BUY for the medium-term.

TSM surprised with 2 quarters of good profit

One of the first companies that I have posted a BUY call was a company called Juan Kuang (go here & here). It is an auto parts manufacturer, which has been affected by the slowdown in the auto sector. The company has recently changed its name to TSM Global Bhd ('TSM'). You can see from the first table that TSM's financial performance has been pretty steady despite the contraction experienced by the industry.



Its latest quarterly results for QE31/10/2007 shows that its net profit has increased 23.7% q-o-q or 286% y-o-y to RM6.8 million (see the table below). While its turnover has increased by 12.4% y-o-y to RM54.5 million, it actually dropped by 14.4% when compared to the preceding quarter's number. The better profit was attributable to new business for new models such as Perodua Viva, Nissan Latio & Toyota Vios. TSM has benefited from an extraordinary gain from the sale of an investment of RM1.57 million for QE31/10/2007. If this were excluded, TSM's net profit for QE31/10/2007 would be about RM5.21 million. This means that its net profit would be lower by 5% as compared to the net profit for QE31/7/2007.

If TSM can maintain its current profitability, it might report an earning of 35 sen for the FY2008, or 40 sen for FY2009. At yesterday's closing price of RM1.12, TSM is trading at a trailing PE of 3.2 times (or, a forward PE of 2.8 times).



From chart, you can see that TSM has been range-bounced for the past 2 & 1/2 year between RM0.94 & RM1.54. The psychological RM1.00 horizontal support is currently supporting the share price. Technically speaking, TSM has yet to show any bullish sign that has attracted a BUY call.


Chart: TSM's weekly chart as at December 18 (courtesy of Quickcharts)

TSM is an attractive stock trading at a cheap PE multiple of about 3 times. I rate TSM as a long-term BUY because its technical picture has yet to turn bullish.

(I have subsequently amended a small portion of the post. The amended portion is shown in bold, italicized lettering.)

IGB is coming very near to its support at RM1.90-2.00

IGB is coming very near to its horizontal support of RM1.90-2.00. In addition, you can see that the uptrend line support for IGB is at RM1.90. As such, IGB could be a good Trading Buy at RM1.90-2.00, with a stoploss set at RM1.80-85.


Chart: IGB's weekly chart as at December 18 (courtesy of Quickcharts)

VS' net profit grew at slower pace

VS' net profit increased by 3.0% q-o-q or 30.9% y-o-y to RM21.1 million, while its turnover increased by 4.7% q-o-q or 19.0% y-o-y to RM290 million. For the past 3 quarters, you would notice that VS' turnover was holding steady at about RM280-290 million, while net profit was holding steady at about RM20-21 million (for past 2 quarters).



VS has experienced a very rapid growth in the past 2 years, but the past few quarters may have shown that a slowdown may have occurred. While this maybe a good thing for any company, investors might become jittery & decide to take some profit. Nevertheless, it is heartening to note that VS' share price is still not too far off its recent high of RM4.20-26. It may not be a bad idea to cash in some profit from this investment (see earlier post). Admittedly, the chart has not given any SELL signal at this moment, but a sharp correction after its recent sharp rise cannot be ruled out.


Chart: VS' weekly chart as at December 18 (courtesy of Quickcharts)

YTL's current selldown is overdone?

YTL Corp ('YTL') share has recently 'ex' for a Restricted Offer for Sale ('ROS') of 1 YTLPower share for 15 YTL shares owned. The ex-date was on December 12th. Thereafter, the share price took a sharp plunge to a low of RM7.05 on December 14th & 17th. This drop had effectively wiped out all the price gain for YTL when it rallied off its low of RM7.20 on November 22nd to hit a high of RM8.70 on December 6th & 7th.

Was the sharp spike in the share price & the subsequent plunge attributable to the ROS of the YTLPower shares. I don't think so. If you were to value this entitlement, a YTL shareholder with 1000 YTL shares would receive only 67 YTLPower shares at RM0.50 each. Using the closing price of YTLPower as at December 12th of RM2.62, the gain from the ROS is about RM142.

The last time YTL made a similar ROS was in December 2006. That ROS was more generous at 1 YTLPower share for every 10 YTL shares owned, offered at a price of RM0.50 each. After the ex date, the price adjustment was milder, i.e. from RM6.95 to RM6.20. The gain from this ROS is about RM180 (based on YTLPower share price of RM2.30 for the weekended December 9th, 2006). Thereafter, YTL resumed its uptrend & hit a high of RM8.10 before the February & March selloff set in.

Based on yesterday's price of RM7.20, YTL has broken below its uptrend line support of RM7.40. A quick return to the RM7.40 level is important. We are seeing that rebound today. If successful, YTL could be a good Long-term Buy at RM7.40 (with a stoploss set at RM6.90, i.e. 10 sen below the psychological RM7.00 support).


Chart: YTL's weekly chart as at December 17 (courtesy of Quickcharts)

Airasia is testing its uptrend line support

Airasia is about to test its uptrend line support at RM1.68. In the past 2 occasions where the share price has breached the RM1.70, they have gone to low of RM1.62 in August & RM1.67 just last month. This time, it may do the same again, especially with the uptrend line support lying not too far away. Thus, Airasia could be a good Trading Buy at RM1.68 or therabout, with stop loss at RM1.60 (8 sen below the uptrend line support of RM1.68).


Chart: Airasia's weekly chart as at December 17 (courtesy of Quickcharts)

Commerz is testing its uptrend line support

Commerz is testing its uptrend line support of RM10.40. We can also expect strong support from the psychological support of RM10.00. A rebound from these supports is likely. Thus, Commerz could be a good Trading Buy, with a stop loss at RM9.90 (i.e. 50 sen below the uptrend line support of RM10.40).


Chart: Commerz's weekly chart as at December 17 (courtesy of Quickcharts)

EONCap is testing its uptrend line

EONCap is testing its uptrend line support at RM6.10 today. This is also a strong horizontal support. EONCap has dropped back form its high of RM8.45 recorded on July 13th. At the current level of RM6.10-15, EONCap could be a good Trading Buy, with a stop loss set at RM5.80 (i.e. 30 sen below the uptrend line support-cum-horizontal support of RM6.10).

Chart: EONCap's weekly chart as at December 14 (courtesy of Quickcharts)

Timecom- a Trading Buy

Timecom has corrected very sharply after recording a high of RM1.44 on July 31st. It has hit a recent low of RM0.72 on November 28th & December 4th. That is 50% off its high of RM1.44 as well as coinciding with a tentative uptrend line support of RM0.73. Without considering Timecom's financial performance & condition, I believe that this could be a good level for a strong rebound in this stock. As such, Timecom is now a good Trading Buy, with a stop loss at RM0.68 (5 sen below the tentative uptrend line support of RM0.73).


Chart: Timecom's weekly chart as at December 14 (courtesy of Quickcharts)

MSNiaga, a possible contrarian buy

Background

Mesiniaga Bhd ('MSNiaga') is involved in sale & service of IT products & related services. Its subsidiaries are involved in the provision of management training, consulting & outsourcing services and sales of networking cables & related products.

Past 5-year Financial Performance

The group's turnover has been increasing steadily from RM230 million to RM322 million, from FY2002 to FY2005. In FY2006, its turnover dropped marginally to RM316 million. I expect current year's turnover to equal that of FY2006. Pre-tax profit, which was maintained at RM27 million for FY2002 & FY2003, dropped to RM23 million in FY2004-2006. This is likely to drop further to RM10 million in the current year.



Recent Financial Results

MSNiaga's net profit for QE30/9/2007 increased by 43.9% q-o-q or 82.4% to RM3.5 million. Its turnover has increased by 7.1% to RM85.8 million from RM80.1 million recorded in the same quarter last year. Nevertheless, the turnover is lower than the preceding quarter's turnover of RM108.5 million.

MSNiaga suffered a net loss of RM1.7 million in QE31/3/2007 when its turnover dropped to RM42.6 million due to the deferment of projects.



Current Financial Position

As at 30/9/2007, MSNiaga's financial position is deemed satisfactory. Its liquidity position is healthy as reflected by its current & quick ratio of 3.14 & 2.94, respectively. Gearing ratio is negligible at 0.06 times. In term of working capital management, one will note that the inventory's turnover period has improved slightly from 17 days as at 31/12/2006 to 13 days as at 30/9/2007. If there is any concern about MSNiaga, it must be its high Trade Debtors figure. This has increased from RM153.2 million as at 31/12/2006 to RM165.3 million as at 30/9/2007, or 160 days to 176 days. I do not know the quality of these debtors and would have to depend on the management to determine whether these debtors are collectible. Presumably, any doubtful debts have been adequately provided for.

Valuation

Based on MSNiaga's closing price of RM1.64 as at December 12th, the stock is trading at a trailing PE of 11.0 times (using its past 4 quarters' EPS of 15.0 sen) or 0.6 times its book value (using its NTA per share of RM2.80 as at 30/9/2007).

Technical Outlook

From Chart 1, we can see that MSNiaga share price has been drifting lower since making a high of RM18.90 in February 2000 (no doubt benefiting from the dotcom bubble). During the period from May 2005 to June 2007, the stock was trading between RM2.40-2.90. In July 2007, the the strong horizontal support of RM2.40 gave way & the stock trended lower (see Chart 2). From the low of RM1.60, MSNiaga has rebounded to test its downtrend line resistance at RM1.65-68 in the past 4 days. Unable to break through this resistance, the price is drifting lower again. A break above this downtrend line could potentially signal a temporary bottom for the stock.


Chart 1: MSNiaga's monthly chart as at December 11 (courtesy of Quickcharts)



Chart 2: MSNiaga's daily chart as at December 11 (courtesy of Quickcharts)

Conclusion

MSNiaga is a very attractive stock at the current level, where it is trading at a PE of 11.0 times its trailing earning or 0.6 times its book value. Ignoring the all-time high of RM18.90 recorded in the dotcom bubble period of 2000, the share price is substantially lower than its high of RM4.00-6.00 in 2002-2003. A sustained recovery in the Malaysian economy may see stronger spending in ICT industry; thus benefiting MSNiaga. At the current price, MSNiaga could have discounted substantially all its bad news.

APPLE-C1 & EXMOBIL-C1 listed

Today, we have the listing of 4 CWs from OSK, i.e. APPLE-C1, CHOLAND-C1, EXMOBIL-C1 and PINGAN-C1. I do not intend to cover the CWs of the Hong Kong-listed CHOLAND and PINGAN, for now. Instead, I shall look at APPLE-C1 and EXMOBIL-C1. The main terms are highlighted below (together with GOOGLE-C1).



Based on yesterday's closing price of the underlying shares & this morning price (at 9.30 am) for the CWs, their premium are computed & shown in the above table. It is unfair to compare EXMOBIL-C1's premium with those of APPLE-C1 & GOOGLE-C1, since the latter 2 CWs should command a higher premium because of their higher volatility. One may prefer APPLE-C1 over GOOGLE-C1 as the former instrument is trading at a lower premium than the latter.

The Valuation Measures for the 3 underlying stocks are presented below. You may note that both APPLE & GOOGLE are currently trading at PE of about 50-56 times their trailing earning, while EXMOBIL trades at 13 times its trailing earning.


Data provided by Capital IQ

I have presented below the daily charts for all 3 stocks. We can see that all 3 stocks have risen quite significantly since their August low. The price gain are very substantial for APPLE & GOOGLE (at 75% and 53%, respectively), while EXMOBIL has risen by 18% during that period.


Chart 1: APPLE's daily chart as at December 10 (courtesy of Yahoo Finance)



Chart 2: GOOGLE's daily chart as at December 10 (courtesy of Yahoo Finance)



Chart 3: EXMOBIL's daily chart as at December 10 (courtesy of Yahoo Finance)

Based on the rising trend of all 3 stocks, one may expect this trend to continue. If so, the aggressive approach is to position ourselves in the CWs of these stocks. This is a high risk trading strategy in a very volatile period, where one should not be surprise if the price of the underlying stocks were to adjust downward sharply. If this were to occur, the drop in the price of the CWs would be even sharper.

More details of TM's demerger announced

TM has announced full details of its proposed demerger (go here), which was first announced on September 28 (go here). The proposal involves the splitting up of TM's businesses into 2 separate entities, i.e.

1. TM International, which will undertake the mobile and non-Malaysian businesses of the TM Group, which is presently being carried out collectively by Celcom and the various operating subsidiaries and associated companies of TM International; and
   
2. The new TM, which will carry on the retail, domestic and global wholesale fixed-line voice, data and broadband services and other telecommunication and non-telecommunication related businesses in Malaysia and regionally.

Based on the latest announcement, an existing TM shareholder with 1000 units of share will get 1000 units of the new TM share; 1000 units of TM International share; and a special dividend of 65 sen (less tax of 27%) upon completion of the demerger. With the complete details, investors will be able to appraise the value of TM more confidently. Since the structure is not unconventional and the only goody is the special dividend, I expect the immediate boost to the share price of TM to be limited (maybe, a rise of 30-50 sen). We must bear in mind that the share price of TM has increased by 15% from RM9.70 on September 27 to RM11.20 as at last Friday (December 7). Longer term, an existing TM investor, who holds onto the new TM share & TM international, might see greater combined price appreciation if the benefits of the demerger (i.e. greater autonomy & accountability) can be harnessed.

Maybank poised to go higher

Maybank has recently broken above its downtrend line at the RM11.60 level. With this breakout, Maybank is poised to move higher. I believe that the next upleg could well commence when Maybank share price has surpassed the horizontal resistance at RM11.80. This morning, Maybank has traded at this level & it has even touched the RM11.90 (for a mere 10 lots done). If Maybank can surpass the RM11.80 with good volume & follow-through in the following few days, it could be a good trading buy.


Chart: Maybank' daily chart as at December 5 (courtesy of Quickcharts)

Alternatively, you can consider Maybank-CE or Maybank-CF. The terms of these CWs are:

1. Maybank-CE (exercise price: RM12.40, exercise ratio: 10 for 1, expiry date: March 28, 2008)
2. Maybank-CF (exercise price: RM11.80, exercise ratio: 2 for 1, expiry date: June 30, 2008)

Based on yesterday's closing prices, the premium of Maybank-CE & Maybank-CF are 12.3% & 12.9%, respectively. The final CW, Maybank-CA is more attractive as it is trading at a discount of 1.9%. Unfortunately, it's due to expire on January 28, 2008. In addition, Maybank-CA is not a cash-settled CW. One would have to subscribe for the underlying share at the exercise price of RM9.72.

More than another year-end rally?

Yesterday, our KLCI gained 11.96 points to close at 1427.77. At this level, the KLCI has surpassed its recent high of 1423.81 recorded on November 1st (see Chart 1 below). The year-end rally has started with a bang, from the re-quotation of the restructured Sime Darby on November 30th. As noted in my earlier post (go here), Sime Darby's theoretical value should be about RM8.81, but on re-quotation, it traded to a high of RM12.10 before closing at RM11.00 at the end of that day. This 25%-jump in the value of the top stock on our bourse has caused the KLCI to gap up (from its close at 1374.32 on November 29th to its opening level at 1408.09 on November 30th). This was also followed by strong rally in Tenaga (as noted in this post) as well as a breakout in TM (go here). Maybank may participate in this rally as well (see the next story). The big question now is, Can the rally sustain beyond the year-end?


Chart 1: KLCI's daily chart as at December 5 (courtesy of Quickcharts)



Chart 2: Crude Oil chart as at December 5 (courtesy of SuperCharts by Omega Research)

The continued recovery in the Dow and the correction in the price of Crude Oil (see Chart 2 above) may have provided the catalysts for this rally in the market. Despite the sharp gain among the blue chips, the rally has yet to broaden out. The second- and third-liners are still very quiet. Overall market volume has yet to increase significantly. So, all signs seem to point to a short rally for window dressing. If so, one may be better served by selling into this rally.

TM poised to go higher

TM has been testing the strong horizontal resistance of RM11.00-20 (on 5 separate occasions) for the past 10 months. Yesterday, it managed to surpass that level by a mere 10 sen to close at RM11.30. Volume traded was quite large. If there is follow-through today, TM might challenge the overhead resistance at RM11.70, 12.10 & 12.70. As such, TM could be a good trading buy.


Chart: TM' daily chart as at December 3 (courtesy of Quickcharts)

Alternatively, you can consider TM-CF or TM-CG. The terms of these CWs are:

1. TM-CF (exercise price: RM9.50, exercise ratio: 10 for 1, expiry date: May 23, 2008)
2. TM-CG (exercise price: RM10.50, exercise ratio: 5 for 1, expiry date: July 21, 2008)

Based on yesterday's closing prices, the premium of TM-CF & TM-CG are 4.9% & 9.3%, respectively. The final CW, TM-CE is cheaper in absolute term but it has a very short period to maturity (as its expiry date is on January 4, 2008). A CW with such a short period to maturity is very, very difficult to trade in.

Tenaga rebounding...

Tenaga is currently enjoying a typical clearing rally from an oversold low. A rally that is fast, furious & prone to failure. From the daily chart below, we can see that Tenaga's downtrend accelerated in July. This immediate downtrend was broken on Friday on big volume. The rally, which continued today, has managed to surpass a few horizontal resistance to hit RM10.00 at the end of the morning session. Can this rally continue further & challenge the next downtrend line resistance at RM10.60? I think this is not a very likely scenario. I believe that a correction might set in & the stock may then consolidate its recent price gain before advancing further. Those who missed out on this stock can add to their position in such a correction.


Chart: Tenaga' daily chart as at November 30 (courtesy of Quickcharts)