Semiconductor Stocks: I'm Still Standing

Last week, I posted about a possible temporary top for semiconductor stocks in line with the breakdown of the intermediate uptrend line for the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX). However, the market proved me wrong very quickly. This week, SOX rebounded back to its recent high. Does the party still have a long way to go?


Chart 1: SOX's daily chart as at April 26, 2017 (Source: Stockcharts.com)
 
If SOX can surpass the recent high, it would probably be above the intermediate uptrend line. If this condition is attained, I consider the semiconductor sector to be safe and the stocks' uptrend is likely to continue. For now, I feel that the jury is still out.


Chart 2: SOX's weekly chart as at April 26, 2017 (Source: Stockcharts.com)

AMBANK: Broke Above Its Downtrend Line

In early March, I wrote again about AMBANK testing its downtrend line (here). On April 21, AMBANK finally broke above its long-term downtrend line, RR at RM5.00. See Chart 1 below.


Chart 1: AMBANK's weekly chart as at April 27, 2017_12.30 (Source: Malaysiastock.biz)

If you look closely, there is a minor resistance at the recent high of RM5.02 that capped the price rise for 4-5 weeks. The upside breakout of the long-term downtrend line and the recent high of RM5.02 set this stock free. It soared immediately to the psychological level of RM5.50 before correction set in.


Chart 2: AMBANK's daily chart as at April 27, 2017_12.30 (Source: Malaysiastock.biz)

Based on my previous financial analysis and the current technical breakout, AMBANK is a good stock to invest for long term.

Genting Singapore: Next Upleg in Progress

Brief Background

Genting Singapore (“Genting SP”) is the owner & operator of the casino & theme park in Singapore known as Resort World Sentosa. Since it commenced operation in 2010, this casino has been profitable. From the chart below, you can see a sharp drop in profit in FY2015 as well as a recovery in FY2016. See the table below.

 

Table: Genting SP’s 10 years result

Investment Idea

Genting SP was reported to the vehicle used by the Genting group to bid for a casino license in Japan. In December 2016, Japan has passed a law that has legalized the setting up of casinos. The Japanese market was reported to be worth about USD30 billion (bigger than Macau). For more, go here.

Technical Outlook

Genting SP broke above the downtrend line, RR at S$1.00 in February. This is a confirmation that the price will not be going lower from that point onwards. What doesn't go down tends to go up! 

Chart 1: Genting SP monthly chart as at April 26, 2017 (Source: Shareinvestor.com)

Go up, it did. However, the price rise was capped by the horizontal line at S$1.04 from December 2016 until 2 weeks ago. On April 10, 2017, Genting SP broke above the S$1.04 mark, which signaled the start of the next upleg for this stock.

Chart 2: Genting SP weekly chart as at April 26, 2017 (Source: Shareinvestor.com)

Conclusion

Based on technical breakout, Genting SP is now a good trading BUY. For medium-term player, you may look at a target price of S$1.40. Good luck!

SEACERA & KPJ: The Tale Of Two Cities

I like to highlight 2 sets of warrants that capture the extreme exuberance among retail players in the market today. The first set is SEACERA-WA & SEACERA-WB.

If you look at the chart for SEACERA, you will conclude that the stock has limited upside unless it can break above the strong resistance from the horizontal line at RM1.30. While lagging indicators like MACD & DMI are positive, leading indicator, RSI, has issued warning of a bearish divergence. Thus, it is premature to be bullish on SEACERA.


Chart 1: SEACERA's weekly chart as at April 26, 2017_3.20 (Source: Malaysiastock.biz)

Not according to the warrants! SEACERA-WB has broken above its downtrend line. The sharp rally has caused both MACD & DMI to turn bullish. Again, RSI shows bearish divergence. Until the recent upside breakout, the downtrend is consistent with a warrant whose conversion premium continued to deplete overtimes as it approaches its maturity. The upside breakout could be due to a price-sensitive event which seems not to be captured by the share price!


Chart 2: SEACERA-WB's weekly chart as at April 26, 2017_3.20 (Source: Malaysiastock.biz)  

Because of the sharp rally in its sibling, SEACERA-WA - due to expire on May 16 & to cease trading tomorrow - managed to rally from RM0.04 on April 13 to a high of RM0.30 on April 21. Even today (the last trading day), this warrant is holding well at RM0.15. You may argue that it is able to do that because it's trading at a 3%-discount to the share. I wonder how many of those gung-ho punters have the mean to fork out RM1.00 to convert the warrant to the share after today!


Chart 3: SEACERA-WA's weekly chart as at April 26, 2017_3.20 (Source: Malaysiastock.biz)
   
Now, let's look at KPJ-WA. This warrant rallied sharply this morning to hit its limit-up price of RM1.11. This seems to be a belated reaction to the rally in the share price after KPJ announced a 1-to-4 share split on April 20 (here).


Chart 4: KPJ-WA's weekly chart as at April 26, 2017_3.20 (Source: Malaysiastock.biz)

With the warrant holding at the limit-up price, you would think that the share, which had rallied earlier on the news of the share split proposal, would have a second wind. This morning, the share did jump up 17 sen to RM4.30. For most of the afternoon session, it has eased back to around RM4.20. Here, at least, you can argue that the warrant is reacting to the share having achieved an upside breakout of its downtrend line. Still, one couldn't help but wonder why the sudden jump in the warrant price.


Chart 5: KPJ's weekly chart as at April 26, 2017_3.20 (Source: Malaysiastock.biz) 

I see the sharp contrast in price performance between the warrant and the share as a sign of extreme exuberance among retail players. As a group, retail players are not bothered by price disconnection. To them, action speaks louder than words. These are men of action, who share the same motto as the SAS: Who Dares, Wins! God blessed them all; for without them, our market will be so dull!

Note: The profile of the warrants are:

Gtronic: Earnings Improved

Result Update

For QE31/13/2017, Gtronic's net profit dropped 27% q-o-q but rose 27% y-o-y to RM4.7 million while revenue rose 7% q-o-q but dropped 15% y-o-y to RM50 million. Revenue rose q-o-q due to the higher volume loadings seen from some of the Group's customers. Lower net profit achieved was mainly due to forex loss (net) of RM0.6 million recognized in the income statement as compared to preceding quarter forex gain of RM3.1 million; and start-up expenses incurred amounting to RM0.7 million.


Table: Gtronic's last 8 quarterly results


Chart: Gtronic's last 44 quarterly results

Valuation 

Gtronic (closed at RM5.25 yesterday) is now trading at a PE of 55 times (based on last 4 quarters' EPS of 9.47 sen). At this elevated PER, a lot of positives had been factored into the share price. Any earning disappointment will not be well-received.

Technical Outlook

Gtronic had a strong rally over the past 8 months, from the low of RM2.60 in August 2016 to the current price of RM5.25. That's a 67%-retracement of the decline of RM4.90 from its high of RM6.50 in December 2015 to the low of RM2.60 in August 2016. A 67% Fibonacci retracement is a very significant  retracement where the market may take a pause. I believe the stock could correct back to RM5.00 before going higher.


Chart: Gtronic's weekly chart as at April 25, 2017 (Source: Malaysiastock.biz)

Conclusion

Based on improving financial performance, Gtronic can be a good stock for long-term investment. However, its demanding valuation & the sharp rebound may lead to a correction in the near-term. Some profit-taking may be a good idea at this stage. 

Note:

I hereby confirm that I do not have any direct interest in the security or securities mentioned in this post. However, I could have an indirect interest in the security or securities mentioned as some of my clients may have an interest in the acquisition or disposal of the aforementioned security or securities. As investor, you should fully research any security before making an investment decision.

Pantech: Earnings Jumped!

Result Update

For QE28/2/2017, Pantech's net profit rose 77% q-o-q or 54% y-o-y to RM11 million while its revenue increased by 54% q-o-q or 40% y-o-y to RM153 million. The better Group performance was mainly due to the increase in sales demand and delivery for RAPID projects.


Table: Pantech's last 8 quarterly results


Graph: Pantech's last 30 quarterly results

Valuation

Pantech (closed at RM0.61 yesterday) is now trading at a PE of 13 times (based on last 4 quarters' EPS of 4.73 sen). Dividend yield is at 3.0%. At these multiples, Pantech is deemed reasonably priced for a stock in the O&G sector which is poised for recovery.

Technical Outlook

Pantech is in a long-term uptrend line, with support at RM0.45.


Chart: Pantech's weekly chart as at April 25, 2017 (Source: Malaysiastock.biz)

Conclusion

Based satisfactory financial performance, fair valuation & positive technical outlook, Pantech is a good stock for long-term investment.

Note:

I hereby confirm that I do not have any direct interest in the security or securities mentioned in this post. However, I could have an indirect interest in the security or securities mentioned as some of my clients may have an interest in the acquisition or disposal of the aforementioned security or securities. As investor, you should fully research any security before making an investment decision.

Takaful: Earnings Soared

Results Update

For QE31/3/2017, Takaful's net profit rose 45% q-o-q or 22% y-o-y to RM57 million while revenue rose 34% q-o-q or 4% y-o-y to RM660 million. Profit before zakat and taxation rose 77.6% q-o-q mainly due to higher net wakalah fee income.


Table: Takaful's last 8 quarters' results

Takaful's net profit is now at a new high!


Graph: Takaful's last 44 quarters' results

Valuation

Takaful (closed at RM4.01 yesterday) is now trading at a PE of 17.7 times (based on the last 4 quarters' EPS of 22.71 sen). At this PER, Takaful is deemed fully valued.

Technical Outlook

Takaful is resting on a long-term uptrend line at RM4.00.


Chart: Takaful's weekly chart as at April 25, 2017 (Source: MalaysiaStock.biz)

Conclusion

Based on satisfactory financial performance & positive technical outlook, Takaful is a good stock for long-term investment despite its fully valuation.

Note:

I hereby confirm that I do not have any direct interest in the security or securities mentioned in this post. However, I could have an indirect interest in the security or securities mentioned as some of my clients may have an interest in the acquisition or disposal of the aforementioned security or securities. As investor, you should fully research any security before making an investment decision. 

AEONCR: Surprisingly Strong Earning

Result Update

For QE28/2/2017, AEONCR's net profit rose 19% q-o-q or 18% y-o-y to RM80 million while revenue rose 4% q-o-q or 13% y-o-y to RM291 million. PBT rose 14% q-o-q mainly attributable to higher revenue and higher operating income.


Table: AEONCR's last 8 quarterly results

AEONCR's net profit is at a new "high"!


Graph: AEONCR's last 38 quarterly results

Proposed Capital Exercise

In late March, AEONCR announced a proposal for a Bonus Issue of 1-for-2 plus a Rights Issue of ICULs of 2-for-1 (which may be revised to 3-for-1 in the event the bonus issue is terminated). The surprising reaction from the market was a drop in the share price to RM15.38 (after an initial euphoria that led to a jump to RM17.22). I highlighted this price drop as a buying opportunity (here).

Valuation

AEONCR (closed at RM16.30 yesterday) is now trading at a PE of 9.3 times (based on last 4 quarters' EPS of 174.55 sen). At this PER, AEONCR is deemed fairly attractive. In addition, it pays a decent dividend with DY of 3.9% (based on last year dividend of  63 sen).

Technical Outlook

AEONCR has been trading in a range between RM10.80 & RM16.70. An upside breakout could lead to a rally to RM2.00-23.00 (based on a 1-time extension of the trading range).


Chart: AEONCR's weekly chart as at April 25, 2017 (Source: MalaysiaStock.biz)

Conclusion

Based on satisfactory financial performance and fairly attractive valuation, AEONCR is a good stock for long-term investment.

Note:

I hereby confirm that I do not have any direct interest in the security or securities mentioned in this post. However, I could have an indirect interest in the security or securities mentioned as some of my clients may have an interest in the acquisition or disposal of the aforementioned security or securities. As investor, you should fully research any security before making an investment decision.

BAT: Earning Recovery Not In Sight Yet

Result Update

For QE31/3/2017, BAT's net profit dropped 62% q-o-q or 34% y-o-y to RM114 million while revenue dropped by 8% q-o-q or 24% y-o-y to RM771 million. Revenue declined 24% y-o-y (or, RM 250 million) in line with volume decline, leading to a Gross Profit deterioration of 27.5% y-o-y (RM97 million).

Operating Expenses dropped 18.1% (or, RM22 million), attributed to timing of spends, lower recharges from related entities as well as overhead savings from cost efficiency initiatives the Group has undertaken.

During the same period, the Group has further recorded a one-off restructuring expenses of RM1.6 million which consists of the on-going cost of the project, outplacement programs and one-off expenses associated with the storage and transfer of unprocessed leaf and raw materials.

As a consequence, the Group registered a decline of 32.8% (or, RM77 million) and 32.3% (or, RM75 million) in Profit from Operations and Profit before Tax respectively.


Table 1: BAT's last 8 quarterly results


Graph: BAT's last 41 quarterly results
  
Valuation

BAT (closed at RM47.06 yesterday) is now trading at an adjusted PER of 20.2 times (based on the last 4 quarters' EPS of 232.7 sen). BAT has paid out quarterly dividend payment totaling of 217 sen; thus giving a Dividend Yield of 4.6%.

Technical Outlook

BAT is trying to find a base at RM40-50 level. With monthly MACD nearly hooking up and downtrend momentum peaking, the bottom is near.


Chart: BAT's monthly chart as at April 20, 2017 (Source: Shareinvestor.com)

Conclusion

Based on weak financial performance and unattractive valuation, BAT is not a good stock for long-term investment. With a tentative bottom in sight, BAT's rating is revised from a SELL to a HOLD.

Note:
I hereby confirm that I do not have any direct interest in the security or securities mentioned in this post. However, I could have an indirect interest in the security or securities mentioned as some of my clients may have an interest in the acquisition or disposal of the aforementioned security or securities. As investor, you should fully research any security before making an investment decision.

PBBank: Steady-as-she-goes

Result Update

For QE31/3/2017, PBBank's net profit dropped 16% q-o-q but rose 1.5% y-o-y to RM1.25 billion while revenue dropped 1% q-o-q but rose 0.4% y-o-y to RM5.03 billion. PBT dropped q-o-q mainly due to the allowance for loan impairment in the current quarter of RM67.1 million as compared to a net writeback of RM37.1 million in the preceding quarter, higher other operating expenses in the current quarter and non-recurring gain on revaluation of investment properties of RM60.7 million in the preceding quarter.


Table: PBBank's last 8 quarterly results

From the chart below, we can see that PBBank's top-line and bottom-line have stagnated for the past 6 quarters.


Graph: PBBank's last 45 quarterly results

Valuation

PBBank (closed at RM19.92 yesterday) is now trading at a PE of 14.7 times (based on last 4 quarters' EPS of 135 sen). At this PE multiple, PBBank is deemed fully valued. It pays a decent dividend yield of 2.9%.

Technical Outlook

PBBank is still in a long-term uptrend, with 30-month EMA acting as a support at RM19.00. 


Chart: PBBank's monthly chart as at Apr 20, 2017 (Source: ShareInvestor.com)

Conclusion

Based on good financial performance, fair valuation & positive technical outlook, PBBank is still a good stock for long-term investment. However PBBank is likely to underperform banking stocks that had been sold down in the past 2-3 years, such as CIMB, AMBank & AFG. Hence, CIMB, AMBank & AFG are likely to give you better return than PBBank.

Note:
I hereby confirm that I do not have any direct interest in the security or securities mentioned in this post. However, I could have an indirect interest in the security or securities mentioned as some of my clients may have an interest in the acquisition or disposal of the aforementioned security or securities. As investor, you should fully research any security before making an investment decision.

IBHD: Earning Maintained Due to Property Development

Result Update

For QE31/3/2017, IBhd's net profit rose 32% q-o-q or 21% y-o-y to RM18.6 million while revenue was unchanged q-o-q but rose 28% y-o-y to RM103 million. The better performance in both the revenue and profit was mainly due to higher revenue recognition of on-going projects for the Property Development segment as well as higher revenue and profit before tax for the Leisure segment. While revenue & PBT were relatively unchanged q-o-q, what was highlighted by management was the strong performance of the Property Development segment. To wit:

"[O]verall comparable result masks the continued growth of the Property Development segment where there was an increase in revenue and profit before tax for the quarter due to higher progress recognition of on-going projects. Lower revenue and profit before tax from the Leisure segment was expected for the current quarter as Leisure segment had attained its peak seasonal revenue in the preceding quarter due to the year-end school and festive holidays."


Table: IBhd's last 8 quarterly P&L


Chart 1: IBhd's last 15 quarterly P&L

Valuation

I-Bhd (closed at RM0.615 yesterday) is now trading at a trailing PER of 9.4x (based on last 4 quarters' EPS of 6.5 sen). At this PER, I-Bhd is deemed fairly valued.

Technical Outlook

IBhd is in a gradual uptrend line. Its immediate resistance will come from the horizontal line at RM0.66.


Chart 2: I-Bhd's weekly chart as at April 18, 2017 (Source: Chartnexus)

Conclusion

Based on good financial performance and fair valuation, I-Bhd could be a good stock to consider for long-term investment.

Note:

I hereby confirm that I do not have any direct interest in the security or securities mentioned in this post. However, I could have an indirect interest in the security or securities mentioned as some of my clients may have an interest in the acquisition or disposal of the aforementioned security or securities. As investor, you should fully research any security before making an investment decision. 

MPI: Earnings dropped sequentially

Result Update

For QE31/3/2017, MPI's net profit dropped 21% q-o-q but rose 11% y-o-y to RM43 million while revenue dropped 1% q-o-q but rose 12% y-o-y to RM396 million. PBT dropped q-o-q due to lower revenue & unfavorable forex differences. Revenue dropped as revenue in Asia and European segments were flat while revenue in USA segment dropped by 6%.


Table: MPI's last 8 quarterly results


Graph: MPI's last 41 quarterly results 

Valuation

MPI (closed at RM11.84 yesterday) is now trading at a trailing PER of 12.7 times (based on last 4 quarters' EPS of 93 sen). At this PER, MPI is deemed fairly attractive. Its dividend yield is also decent at 2.3%.

Technical Outlook

MPI has a strong rally to RM12.00 in the past 3 months. The volatile price movement in the past few weeks suggests that the share price could have made a temporary top.


Chart: MPI's weekly chart as at April 18, 2017 (Source: ShareInvestor.com)  

Conclusion

Based on good financial performance & reasonable valuation, MPI is a good stock for long-term investment. However the stock could have made a temporary top after a strong rally over the past 3 months. Thus you may consider taking profit for at least half your position in this stock.

Note:

I hereby confirm that I do not have any direct interest in the security or securities mentioned in this post. However, I could have an indirect interest in the security or securities mentioned as some of my clients may have an interest in the acquisition or disposal of the aforementioned security or securities. As investor, you should fully research any security before making an investment decision.

Semiconductor Stocks May Consolidate For A While

In the past 2 weeks, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) had been sliding. Last Wednesday, it broke below its 50-day SMA line at 985, and it closed at 960 - a level well below its intermediate uptrend line at 975 - on last Friday. 

In addition, we can also see that MACD was nearly below the zero line and the RSI has broken its uptrend line support. These plus the breakdown of the uptrend line and the 50-day SMA line could signal a temporary top for SOX. 

Chart 1: Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX)'s daily chart as at April 14, 2017 (Source: Stockcharts.com)

If we look at the weekly chart, we will see MACD has hooked down and -DMI has crossed above +DMI. This negative signal may lead to a prolonged period of consolidation similar to that experienced in August 2015 to February 2016 (denoted as “B” on the SOX weekly chart) or a brief but sharp correction as witnessed by the market in September 2014 (denoted as “A” on the SOX weekly chart).


Chart 2: Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX)'s weekly chart as at April 14, 2017 (Source: Stockcharts.com)

Looking at our the weekly charts of MPI & Unisem, we can see similar consolidation or correction (denoted as “A” and "B" respectively). Undoubtedly the share prices of both MPI & Unisem are off their recent high today. If you expect SOX to correct or consolidate in the next few days or weeks, you should take precaution by avoiding MPI or Unisem. As at 3:55 pm, MPI & Unisem were trading at RM10.96 & RM3.01 respectively.


Chart 3: MPI's weekly chart as at April 14, 2017 (Source: Malaysiastock.biz)


Chart 4: Unisem's weekly chart as at April 14, 2017 (Source: Malaysiastock.biz)

Note:

I hereby confirm that I do not have any direct interest in the security or securities mentioned in this post. However, I could have an indirect interest in the security or securities mentioned as some of my clients may have an interest in the acquisition or disposal of the aforementioned security or securities. As investor, you should fully research any security before making an investment decision.

Market Outlook as at April 11, 2017

Three days ago, FBMKLCI broke its intermediate uptrend line, SS at 1740. Since then, it has struggled to stay above the 1740 mark. As at 3.40 pm today, FBMKLCI was trading at 1735. Will the invincible hand push the index above the 1740 mark again?


Chart 1: FBMKLCI's daily chart as at April 11, 2017 (Source: Shareinvestor.com)

The "good" news is that the next strong support for FBMKLCI is not far away. That support will come from the horizontal line at 1730. In fact, it was the breakout above this level that had generated much excitement in the market just a few weeks back. However, if FBMKLCI were to violate the 1730 level, then the market will consolidate for a while.


Chart 2: FBMKLCI's weekly chart as at April 11, 2017 (Source: Shareinvestor.com)

For the past 4-5 months, our market was driven by buying from two sources: foreign funds and local retail players. The tentative breakdown of the intermediate uptrend line for FBMKLCI could signal a pause in the foreign buying of blue chip stocks. What about the buying from retail players?

From the composite chart below, we can see that the indices for the 2nd & 3rd liner stocks (FBM70 & FBMSCAP) as well as penny stocks (FBMACE & FBMFLG) continued to rise even as FBMKLCI had begun to lose some momentum over the past 2 weeks. In fact, FBMACE & FBMFLG picked up pace as reflected by the distance between the indices and the moving average lines.

However, volume has declined noticeably and this sign of divergence could be a warning that retail players are slowing down. If old & tired punters are not quickly replaced by new & energetic ones, a pause in the play is likely. And, a prolonged pause would bring forth a torrent of selling that could lead to a sharp drop for many penny stocks which had risen spectacularly on very little news or no news at all.


Chart 3: FBM70, FBMSCAP, FBMACE & FBMFLG's daily chart as at April 11, 2017 (Source: Shareinvestor.com)

Based on the above, I would advise retail players to exercise caution in the market. Better still, if you can take some chips off the table. Remember this: A bird in hand is better than two in the bush. Good luck!

Yinson: A Not-so-Painful Termination? (UPDATED)

This morning we have the news that Yinson Holdings Bhd’s associate firm PTSC Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (PTSC Asia Pacific) has received a notice of termination of a bareboat charter contract for a floating production storage and offloading system (known as FPSO PTSC Lam Son) valued up to US$737mil (RM3.3bil) awarded by Lam Son Joint Operating Company (LSJOC), which is a joint venture between Petroliam Nasional Bhd (Petronas) and PetroVietnam.

LSJOC is the operator of the Lam Son field offshore Vietnam while the PTSC Lam Son has been operating in Lam Son Field since June 2014. PTSC Asia Pacific is a 49:51 joint venture between Yinson and PetroVietnam Technical Services Corp (PTSC).

Yinson advised the following:

• The contract cancellation is scheduled to occur on June 30, 2017
• Despite the termination, PetroVietnam - the ultimate holding company of one of the shareholders of LSJOC – intends to continue the petroleum operations at Lam Son Field despite the liquidation of LSJOC and to continue to utilise FPSO PTSC Lam Son for this purpose (How??)
• PTSC Asia Pacific is entitled to an early termination payment (ETP) from PTSC

Because of the above, Yinson stated that “there is no material adverse financial impact to PTSC Asia Pacific”. For more, go to The Star report & Yinson’s announcement on Bursa Malaysia (here). I share this sentiment based on two grounds: 

• PetroVietnam owns 51% of PTSC Asia Pacific as well as 50% of LSJOC. This means that PetroVietnam has a pecuniary interest to find a solution for a redundant FPSO
• The charter contract is a bareboat charter, which means that the cost of reinstating the FPSO in its original condition will be borne by LSJOC

I still believe that we will see a few days of weakness in Yinson. The share price may drop to RM3.00-3.15. That could be a good entry to one of the more focused & well-managed O&G companies in Malaysia.


Chart: Yinson's daily chart as at Apr 3, 2017 (Source: Malaysiastock.biz)

Note:

I hereby confirm that I do not have any direct interest in the security or securities mentioned in this post. However, I could have an indirect interest in the security or securities mentioned as some of my clients may have an interest in the acquisition or disposal of the aforementioned security or securities. As investor, you should fully research any security before making an investment decision.