Market Outlook as at October 31, 2019

Our market ended with a bang today. FBMKLCI went up 18 points to close at 1598. We have 539 gainers to 308 losers and 385 unchanged. Looking at the chart 1 below, FBMKLCI is poised to continue to rise to test the downtrend line, RR at 1640. If we can break above this downtrend line, we will have more than a year-end rally or CNY rally. Keeping my fingers crossed!! 

Chart 1: FBMKLCI's daily chart as at October 31, 2019 (Source: Malaysiastock.biz)

One of the sectors that I have been monitoring closely is the Financial Services sector. The FinServ index monthly chart is given below. This is my observation:

1. When the 10-month SMA line has crossed below the 20 & 30-month EMA lines, the worst of the decline is over. The current one is denoted as D and the earlier ones are denoted as A, B and C.
2. In the first 3 cross-under, the index took 6 months to form the bottom. 

Chart 2: FinServ's monthly chart as at October 31, 2019 (Source: Shareinvestor.com)

We can see that FBMKLCI moves in tandem with the FinServ index. If the FinServ index can make a bottom in the next 6 months and thereafter begin to recover, then FBMKLCI and our broad market will also begin to recover.


Chart 3: FinServ and FBMKLCI's monthly chart as at October 31, 2019 (Source: Shareinvestor.com)

US Market Outlook as at October 31, 2019

In the past 3 days, S&P500 has been trading at all-time high after it surpassed the high recorded in late July this year. Despite breaking to a new high, S&P500 seems to be reluctant to go higher. DJIA and Nasdaq have yet to surpass their respective July highs. Until DJIA and Nasdaq have joined in this breakout party, I think we should be cautious and not be overly bullish.

Chart 1: S&P500's daily chart as at Oct 30, 2019 (Stockcharts.com)

Chart 2: DJIA's daily chart as at Oct 30, 2019 (Stockcharts.com)

Chart 3: Nasdaq's daily chart as at Oct 30, 2019 (Stockcharts.com)

Looking at the 3-year chart for S&P500, DJIA and Nasdaq, we can see that none of these indices have surpassed the line connecting their recent high. The appearance of bearish divergence in the MACD indicators for all the charts could be a warning of the internal weakness of the indices. 

Chart 4: DJIA's daily chart as at Oct 30, 2019 (Stockcharts.com)


Chart 5: S&P500's daily chart as at Oct 30, 2019 (Stockcharts.com)


Chart 6: Nasdaq's daily chart as at Oct 30, 2019 (Stockcharts.com)

I am not bullish about the US markets. Yesterday, Fed's decision to cut interest rate could be taken as a sign of weakness in the US economy. As the action of the Fed contradicts the trend of the main stock market barometers, such as DJIA, S&P500 and Nasdaq, we should take a cautious stance, especially since the stock markets have rallied almost 200% from its low in 2009.

Gtronic: Earnings Dropped

Result Update

For QE30/9/2019, Gtronic's net profit rose 133% q-o-q but dropped 20% y-o-y to RM18.9 million while revenue rose 41% q-o-q but dropped 24% y-o-y to RM66 million. Net profit rose q-o-q due to higher revenue as a result of higher volume loadings and better economies of scale achieved from certain of the Group’s customers as well as better utilization of operational resources and facilities.


Table: Gtronic's last 8 quarterly results


Graph: Gtronic's last 51 quarterly results

Financial Position

Gtronic's financial position is still very healthy with current ratio at 4.4 times and gearing ratio at 0.16 time.

Valuation 

Gtronic (closed at RM2.20 yesterday) is now trading at a PE of 28 times (based on last 4 quarters' EPS of 7.80 sen). At this elevated PER, Gtronic is deemed overvalued.

Technical Outlook

Gtronic broke above its downtrend line at RM1.75 in September. The share price should find support at the 10-week moving average line at around RM2.00.


Chart 1: Gtronic's weekly chart as at Oct 29, 2019 (Source: Malaysiastock.biz)

Gtronic monthly MACD is poised to cross above its signal line. When that happens, the uptrend will pick up pace.

Chart 2: Gtronic's monthly chart as at Oct 29, 2019 (Source: Malaysiastock.biz)

Conclusion

Despite weaker financial performance and demanding valuation, I am keeping my rating for Gtronic to a HOLD. 

Note:

I hereby confirm that I do not have any direct interest in the security or securities mentioned in this post. However, I could have an indirect interest in the security or securities mentioned as some of my clients may have an interest in the acquisition or disposal of the aforementioned security or securities. As investor, you should fully research any security before making an investment decision.

Market Outlook as at October 29, 2019

After a study of the various indices in our market, I can see that FBMMSCAP (for mid-cap) has broken above its downtrend line while FBMACE has just tested the horizontal line at 4900. 

Chart 1: FBMMSCAP's weekly chart as at Oct 25, 2019 (Source: Shareinvestor.com)


Chart 2: FBMACE's weekly chart as at Oct 25, 2019 (Source: Shareinvestor.com)

What have propelled the above 2 indices to the point of breaking out or nearly breaking out? I think the following sectors provide the answer- energy, technology and construction.


Chart 3: ENERGY's weekly chart as at Oct 25, 2019 (Source: Shareinvestor.com)


Chart 4: TECHNOLOGY's weekly chart as at Oct 25, 2019 (Source: Shareinvestor.com)


Chart 5: CONSTRUCTION's weekly chart as at Oct 25, 2019 (Source: Shareinvestor.com)

Meanwhile our main market barometers- FBMKLCI and FBMEMAS are slowly shaping up for a recovery play. You can see the stochastic indicators are both oversold and about to turn upward while the ADXs in the DMI are at their highs and poised to dip. When both of these go in the direction we anticipated, we may see a broad market rebound at the year end, which may lead to a CNY rally.


Chart 6; FBMKLCI's weekly chart as at Oct 25, 2019 (Source: Shareinvestor.com)


Chart 7: FBMEMAS weekly chart as at Oct 25, 2019 (Source: Shareinvestor.com)

UNISEM: Earnings Plummeted Again

Results Update

For QE30/9/2019, Unisem's pre-tax profit dropped 50% q-o-q or 75% y-o-y to RM10 million  while revenue was mix- rose 1.4% q-o-q but dropped 10.8% y-o-y to RM316 million. The lower pre-tax profit was primarily attributable to net expenses incurred on severance against reversal of retirement benefits in PT Unisem.

Unisem reported a loss after tax due to higher effective tax rate arising from the reversal of retirement benefits in PT Unisem amounting to RM6.53 million as well as the losses of a subsidiary company which cannot be used to offset against profits of other companies in the Group.

Table: Unisem's last 8 quarterly results


Graph: Unisem's last 60 quarterly results

Financial Position

As at 30/9/2019, Unisem's financial position is deemed satisfactory with current ratio at 2.6 times while gearing ratio at 0.3 time.

Valuation

Unisem (closed at RM2.56 yesterday) is now trading at a PE of 45 times (based on last 4 quarters' EPS of 5.61 sen). At this PER, Unisem is deemed overvalued.

Technical Outlook

Recently, Unisem rebounded to test its downtrend line at RM2.60. While it went above the downtrend line, the breakout could have sustained.


Chart: Unisem's monthly chart as at Oct 25, 2019 (Source: Malaysiastock.biz)

Conclusion

Based on weaker financial performance and bearish technical outlook, I rate Unisem as a SELL.

Note:

I hereby confirm that I do not have any direct interest in the security or securities mentioned in this post. However, I could have an indirect interest in the security or securities mentioned as some of my clients may have an interest in the acquisition or disposal of the aforementioned security or securities. As investor, you should fully research any security before making an investment decision.

Happy Diwali

I like to wish all my readers of the Hindu faith a HAPPY DIWALI.

From Hotel Boss

Vitrox: Earnings Continued to Slide

 Result Update

For QE30/9/2019, Vitrox's net profit dropped by 43% q-o-q or 51% y-o-y to RM14 million while revenue dropped by 25% q-o-q or 35% y-o-y to RM67 million. Revenue dropped y-o-y mainly because of decline in customer demand by 39% and 24% from Automated Board Inspection (ABI) and Machine Vision System (MVS) respectively. The profit before tax declined by 52% due to decline in sales volume coupled with product mix apart from continuous investment in R&D activities.


Table: Vitrox's last 8 quarterly results


Graph: Vitrox's last 42 quarterly results

Valuation

Vitrox (closed at RM8.07 yesterday) is now trading at a PE of 42 times (based on last 4 quarters' EPS of 19.40 sen). At this PER, Vitrox is deemed fully valued.

Technical Outlook

Vitrox is still in an uptrend line with support at RM7.00-7.10. Its immediate support is at the horizontal line at RM7.30.

 
Chart: Vitrox's weekly chart as at Oct 24, 2019 (Source: Malaysiastock.biz)

Conclusion

Based on weaker financial performance and demanding valuation, I think it is advisable to take profit on Vitrox after a strong run-up since August 2017 (here).

Note:

I hereby confirm that I do not have any direct interest in the security or securities mentioned in this post. However, I could have an indirect interest in the security or securities mentioned as some of my clients may have an interest in the acquisition or disposal of the aforementioned security or securities. As investor, you should fully research any security before making an investment decision.

TAKAFUL: Earnings Continued to Rise

Results Update

For QE30/9/2019, Takaful's net profit rose 39% q-o-q or 34% y-o-y to RM112 million while revenue rose 12% q-o-q or 16% y-o-y to RM753 million. Revenue rose q-o-q mainly attributable to higher sales generated from Family and General Takaful business. Profit before zakat and taxation rose 25% q-o-q mainly attributable to higher net wakalah fee income.. Family Takaful business generated higher gross earned contributions of RM543.7 million, increased by 17%, as compared to RM464.6 million in the immediate preceding quarter. The increase was mainly attributable to higher sales from credit related products. General Takaful business generated gross earned contributions of RM171.9 million, increased by 3%, as compared to RM166.2 million in the immediate preceding quarter. The rise was mainly due to fire and commercial classes.


Table: Takaful's last 8 quarters' results


Graph: Takaful's last 54 quarters' results

Valuation

Takaful (at RM6.20 yesterday) is now trading at a PE of 13.5 times (based on the last 4 quarters' EPS of 46.07 sen). For a growth stock with 3-year CAGR of 30%, Takaful's PEG ratio is about 0.45 time. As such, Takaful is deemed attractive.

Technical Outlook

Takaful has consolidated for about 3 months after it peaked at RM7.18 in June. Its support level are at RM6.00 & RM5.75 while its resistance levels are at RM7.00 & RM7.15.


Chart: Takaful's weekly chart as at Oct 24, 2019 (Source: Malaysiastock.biz)

Conclusion

Based on satisfactory financial performance, attractive valuation and bullish technical outlook, Takaful is a very good stock for long-term investment.

Note:

I hereby confirm that I do not have any direct interest in the security or securities mentioned in this post. However, I could have an indirect interest in the security or securities mentioned as some of my clients may have an interest in the acquisition or disposal of the aforementioned security or securities. As investor, you should fully research any security before making an investment decision.

Property Sector: New Budget Measures May Boost Recovery

The 2020 Budget includes a few measures to boost the property sector, such as:

• Lowering of the threshold of high-rise property prices in urban areas from RM1 million to RM600,000 for foreign buyers
• Shifting the real property gain tax base year from 2000 to 2013
• A new Rent-to-own scheme for first-time homebuyers
• Extension of BSN's Youth Housing Scheme

Hopefully these measures will put a floor on the property prices and even boost activity in that sector, which has good multiplier effect for the rest of the economy.

Looking at the chart below, we can see that Property Index (at 770) is fast approaching the support at the horizontal line at 750. After a drop of nearly 50% from the peak at 1500, property stocks are fairly attractive.


Chart: Property Index as at Oct 11, 2019

The Starbiz has an article on the depth of the slump in share price for property counters. It is entitled Beaten-down property stocks at bargain levels. The hard copy of the article has the table and the chart below.


Table: Property developers' financials


Chart 2: Property developers' price-to-book ratios vs. their gearing ratios

The stocks that are close to the bottom left-hand corner of the above chart are relatively attractive than those that are close to top right-hand corner.

I like the following Kenanga's picks for property sector- ECOWLD, IOIPG, MAHSING, SIMEPROP, SPSETIA and UOADEV.

LHI: Rally Starting

Leong Hup International Bhd ('LHI') was listed with much fanfare in May at an IPO price of RM1.10. Unfortunately the share price dropped over the next 3 months after its listing to make a low of RM0.72 in August. Since then, it has risen and broken above its downtrend line. 

Today, it has just broken above the high recorded in the August rally of RM0.865. At this moment, LHI is trading at RM0.88. If this rally can recruit enough support, the share price may go to RM0.95-1.00. 

The set-up and bullish breakout look tradable. It takes a tough mind to trade in this challenging market, but if you have what it takes to do it, and you're going in, I wish you all the best of luck! 

Chart: LHI's daily chart as at Oct 3, 2019 (Source: Malaysiastock.biz)

PRLEXUS: Earnings Rebounded Strongly

Results Update

Prlexus returned to the black in the QE31/7/2019. It reported a net profit pf RM7 million as compared to a net loss of RM2.9 million in QE30/4/2019 on the back of a 72%-jump in revenue to RM112 million. As compared to the same quarter last year, net profit rose 5-fold while revenue was up 36%.

Improved revenue was due to higher sales orders received from the apparels division. This led to higher capacity utilization from the apparels division, which in turn led to a profit of RM 9,218,000 in the current quarter mainly as compared to a loss of RM 2,714,000 in the preceding quarter. Despite the jump in bottom-line, the company did not appear to be overly optimistic about its next quarter performance. Instead it merely stated that the performance is likely to be stable.

Table: Prlexus's last 8 quarterly results


Graph: Prlexus's last 44 quarterly results

Financial Position

As at 31/7/2019, Prlexus's financial position is deemed satisfactory with current ratio at 2.2 times and gearing ratio at 0.6 time.

Valuation

Prlexus (closed at RM0.69 yesterday) is now trading at a PE of 20 times (based on last 4 quarters' EPS of 3.46 sen). At this PER, Prlexus is deemed fully valued.

Technical Outlook

After it peaked at RM2.12 in November 2015, Prlexus dropped continuously to a low of RM0.41 in July this year. Since September 10, Prlexus has risen about 30 sen to RM0.70 now. Its immediate resistance is at the horizontal line at RM0.77.


Chart: Prlexus's weekly chart as at Sep 30, 2019 (Source: Malaysiastock.biz)

Conclusion

Based on the improved financial performance and satisfactory financial position, I revised Prlexus' rating from a SELL to a HOLD. If the next quarter result shows further improvement, then its rating can be upgraded to a BUY.

Note:

I hereby confirm that I do not have any direct interest in the security or securities mentioned in this post. However, I could have an indirect interest in the security or securities mentioned as some of my clients may have an interest in the acquisition or disposal of the aforementioned security or securities. As investor, you should fully research any security before making an investment decision.

LBALUM: Improved Earnings Not Reflected in Share Prices

Results Update

For QE31/7/2019, LBAlum's net profit rose 72% q-o-q & y-o-y to RM4.6 million while revenue was mixed-  up 12% q-o-q but down 7% y-o-y to RM127 million. Revenue rose 12% q-o-q mainly due to higher sales volume. Profit from operations increased by 126.6% q-o-q in line with the increase in revenue. After accounting for a drop in the share of results from an associate which decreased from RM1.80 million to RM0.95 million and a net other operating expenses of RM37,000 as compared to net other operating income of RM235,000 in the preceding quarter, the Group’s profit before taxation and profit after taxation for the current quarter both increased by 72% q-o-q. (Note: My first post on this stock is here.)


Table: LBAlum's last 8 quarterly results


Graph: LBAlum's last 47 quarterly results

Financial position

LBAlum's financial position as at 31/7/2019 is deemed satisfactory with current ratio at 1.4x and gearing ratio at 0.7x.

Valuation

LBAlum (closed at RM0.51 yesterday) is now trading at a trailing PE of 9 times (based on last 4 quarters' EPS of 5.7 sen). At this PE, LBAlum is fairly valued.

Technical Outlook

Over the past 18 years, LBAlum seems to be range-bound with an upward bias. The current range would be between RM0.45 & RM0.90. Since the prices are nearer the bottom of the range and the earnings have improved over the past 5 quarters, there is a good chance that the share price has bottomed.


Chart: LBAlum's monthly chart as at Sep 30, 2019 (Source: Malaysiastock.biz)

Conclusion

Based on improved financial performance & fair valuation, LBAlum could be a good stock for a recovery play. 

Note:

I hereby confirm that I do not have any direct interest in the security or securities mentioned in this post. However, I could have an indirect interest in the security or securities mentioned as some of my clients may have an interest in the acquisition or disposal of the aforementioned security or securities. As investor, you should fully research any security before making an investment decision.