Tuesday, December 12, 2006

Market Outlook as at December 12

The market appears to be entering into a more serious correction phase after having made a possible top, based on the bearish trading witnessed yesterday. Yesterday's trading pattern is known as a "Shooting Star" in Japanese candlestick charting method. A "Shooting Star" happens when the market "opens higher, trades much higher, then closes near its open."

CI may be testing its short-term uptrend line at 1087 & its 10- & 20-day SMAs at 1085 & 1066, respectively. At 3.00 p.m., the CI is at 1089.5.

Chart 1: CI's daily chart as at Dec 11

Second Board has broken below its short-term uptrend line at 91.5 & its 10- & 20-day SMAs at 92.3 & 91.2, respectively. At 3.00 p.m., the Second Board is at 90.9.

Chart 2: Second Board's daily chart as at Dec 11

Mesdaq has broken below its short-term uptrend line at 118.5 & its 10- & 20-day SMAs at 118.5 & 119.0, respectively. At 3.00 p.m., the Mesdaq is at 117.5.

Chart 2: Mesdaq's daily chart as at Dec 11

Based on the above, I would advise caution in the days ahead as the market may need more time to digest the excess of the past few weeks.

Note: Wait & see whether the CI can hold above the 1087 level. If it can do so, the chance of a rebounce is higher. Otherwise, the consolidation can drag on much longer... (updated at 4.20 p.m.)

3 comments:

StockTips888 said...

Hi Alex, what if the above 1087 level is maintained by artificial means? You know the last minute "magic" push up that we have seen so many times in the past.

Alex Lu said...

Yes, that may happen for a short while but on the long term, this force cannot maintain the market artificially. After seeing the break of the uptrend line in Second Board & Mesdaq, the breakdown of CI is likely to follow.

StockTips888 said...

Thanks. You're absolutely right judging from today's further retreat of KLCI.