Wednesday, November 06, 2019

F&N: Hit by a Double Whammy


Result Update

For QE30/9/2019, F&N's net profit dropped 41% q-o-q or 16% y-o-y to RM68 million while revenue dropped 8.6% q-o-q or 2.2% y-o-y to RM975 million. Both F&B Malaysia and F&B Thailand  revenue declined by 12.8% to RM498.3 million and 3.7% (-6.6% in local currency) to RM475.5 million, respectively. F&B Malaysia revenue dropped mainly due to slower off-take in current quarter post Hari Raya Puasa festive season and pre-loading effect ahead of sugar tax implementation.

F&B Malaysia operating profit declined by 47.5% to RM27.7 million due to lower trade and marketing spending in the preceding quarter. At the same time, F&B Thailand operating profit declined by 38.9% (-42.1% in local currency) to RM60.6 million mainly due to higher investment in brand spending and new product launches and re-launches in the current quarter.


Table: F&N's last 8 quarterly results


Graph: F&N's last 52 quarterly results

Financial Position

As at 30/9/2019, F&N's financial position is deemed healthy with current ratio at 2.21 times and gearing ratio at 0.39 time.

Valuation

F&N (closed at RM35.06 yesterday) is now trading at a PER of 31 times (based on last 4 quarters' EPS of 111.9 sen). At this PER, F&N is deemed fully valued.

Technical Outlook

F&N is in an uptrend line, with support at RM32.50.


Chart 1: F&N's weekly chart as at Nov 5, 2019 (Source: Malaysiastock.biz)


Chart 2F&N's monthly chart as at Nov 5, 2019 (Source: Malaysiastock.biz)

Conclusion

Despite weaker financial performance & high valuation, I rate F&N as a HOLD. The poorer result is a temporary and the technical outlook is still positive.

Note:
I hereby confirm that I do not have any direct interest in the security or securities mentioned in this post.
 However, I could have an indirect interest in the security or securities mentioned as some of my clients may have an interest in the acquisition or disposal of the aforementioned security or securities. As investor, you should fully research any security before making an investment decision.

Tuesday, November 05, 2019

US Market Outlook as at November 4, 2019

DJIA made new high yesterday- joining Nasdaq which made new high last Friday (November 1). As noted in my previous post, S&P500 made new high last Monday (October 28). With all 3 main market barometers having achieved new high, it is now confirmed that US markets' uptrend will continue.


Chart 1: DJIA's daily chart as at Nov 4, 2019 (Source: Stockcharts.com)


 Chart 2: Nasdaq's daily chart as at Nov 4, 2019 (Source: Stockcharts.com)


Chart 3: S&P500's daily chart as at Nov 4, 2019 (Source: Stockcharts.com)

Friday, November 01, 2019

WCEHB-PR: Is It Worth Investing? [Updated]

WCE Holdings Bhd ("WCEHB") is carrying out its rights issue of Redeemable Convertible Preference Shares ('RCPS') on the basis of 2 RCPS @RM0.24 each for every 1 ordinary share held, plus 1 free warrant for every 4 RCPS subscribed for.

WCEHB-PR is the rights to subscribe for the RCPS. It has been traded since October 25 and will cease trading on November 4. This means today is the last day of trading of WCEHB-PR. 

Note: WCEHB-PR is not for speculation. After today, there will be no more trading of this rights, WCEHB-PR. You have no option but to apply for the RCPS at RM0.24 each. The deadline to submit your application is 11 November 2019. You can download the prospectus here and the application form here.

There are 2 options for the RCPS to be converted into ordinary shares. They are:
Option 1:
To convert 1 RCPS plus RM0.04 each to 1 ordinary share

Option 2:
To convert 4 RCPS to 3 ordinary shares

The exercise price for the warrant depends on the time of conversion:
First Exercise Period 
1-5 years: RM0.39

Second Exercise Period 
5-10 years: RM0.45

Why WCEHB rights issue is worth considering?
1. WCEHB owns 80% of the highway concession known as the West Coast Expressway (see the map below). This RM6 billion highway is still under construction but 3 sections (Section 8, 9 and 10) are now open (here). 

Map of West Coast Expressway

2. WCEHB is a marginally profitable company, not a loss-making concern.

3. WCEHB share price has dropped sharply since the announcement of this rights issue. From the chart below, we can trace the decline from around RM0.95 to RM0.40 since the announcement was made on 26 March 2018 (here) to the sending out of the circular to shareholders on 25 July 2019 and finally to the fixing of the ex-date on 10 Oct 2019. These 3 dates are denoted on the chart as A, B and C. 


Chart: WCEHB's daily chart as at Nov 1, 2019_12.15pm (Source: Malaysiastock.biz)

4. After the share has gone ex the entitlement, the theoretical ex-rights price was computed to be about RM0.36. And, the share price continued to drop until it reached RM0.305 yesterday. At the time of writing, WCEHB has recovered somewhat to about RM0.33 while WCEHB-PR was trading at RM0.025.

*****

It is fair to assume that the share price will slowly recover after the rights issue. Let's imagine WCEHB were to go back up to RM0.60 after 1 year. What would be the value of the RCPS & the warrant?

Once If the share price touched RM0.60, the preferred option to use for conversion would be Option 2. Why?

Under Option 2 (1 RCPS + 4 sen = 1 ordinary share), WCEHB RCPS will be worth RM (0.60-0.04) = RM0.56.

Under Option 1 (4 RCPS = 3 ordinary shares), the RCPS would be worth RM0.45.

The market will automatically value the RCPS using Option 2. To do otherwise would lead to value destruction. Markets everywhere abhors value destruction.

Next, what would be the value of the warrant with exercise price of RM0.39?

We are using the exercise price for the First Exercise period and we shall assume that the warrant will be trading with no premium nor at a discount.

The warrant would be worth RM (0.60-0.39) = RM0.21.

Potential profit for investing in 4 RCPS (in RM)
= [Total value of 4 RCPS and 1 warrant] 
                                less 
   [Total cost of buying the rights and subscription cost]
= [(0.56 x 4) + (0.21 x 1)] – [(0.025 x 4) + (0.24 x 4)]
= 2.45 – 1.06
= 1.39

This means you will get a return of 131% for a 1-year investment period.

Based on the above, I think you can consider applying for WCEHB's rights issue of RCPS or to buy the WCEHB shares in the market now. However the return for investing in WCEHB RCPS (of 131%) would exceed that of investing in WCEHB shares (of about 81%).

Thursday, October 31, 2019

Market Outlook as at October 31, 2019

Our market ended with a bang today. FBMKLCI went up 18 points to close at 1598. We have 539 gainers to 308 losers and 385 unchanged. Looking at the chart 1 below, FBMKLCI is poised to continue to rise to test the downtrend line, RR at 1640. If we can break above this downtrend line, we will have more than a year-end rally or CNY rally. Keeping my fingers crossed!! 


Chart 1: FBMKLCI's daily chart as at October 31, 2019 (Source: Malaysiastock.biz)

One of the sectors that I have been monitoring closely is the Financial Services sector. The FinServ index monthly chart is given below. This is my observation:
1. When the 10-month SMA line has crossed below the 20 & 30-month EMA lines, the worst of the decline is over. The current one is denoted as D and the earlier ones are denoted as A, B and C.
2. In the first 3 cross-under, the index took 6 months to form the bottom. 

Chart 2: FinServ's monthly chart as at October 31, 2019 (Source: Shareinvestor.com)

We can see that FBMKLCI moves in tandem with the FinServ index. If the FinServ index can make a bottom in the next 6 months and thereafter begin to recover, then FBMKLCI and our broad market will also begin to recover.


Chart 3: FinServ and FBMKLCI's monthly chart as at October 31, 2019 (Source: Shareinvestor.com)

US Market Outlook as at October 31, 2019

In the past 3 days, S&P500 has been trading at all-time high after it surpassed the high recorded in late July this year. Despite breaking to a new high, S&P500 seems to be reluctant to go higher. DJIA and Nasdaq have yet to surpass their respective July highs. Until DJIA and Nasdaq have joined in this breakout party, I think we should be cautious and not be overly bullish.

Chart 1: S&P500's daily chart as at Oct 30, 2019 (Stockcharts.com)

Chart 2: DJIA's daily chart as at Oct 30, 2019 (Stockcharts.com)

Chart 3: Nasdaq's daily chart as at Oct 30, 2019 (Stockcharts.com)

Looking at the 3-year chart for S&P500, DJIA and Nasdaq, we can see that none of these indices have surpassed the line connecting their recent high. The appearance of bearish divergence in the MACD indicators for all the charts could be a warning of the internal weakness of the indices. 


Chart 4: DJIA's daily chart as at Oct 30, 2019 (Stockcharts.com)


Chart 5: S&P500's daily chart as at Oct 30, 2019 (Stockcharts.com)


Chart 6: Nasdaq's daily chart as at Oct 30, 2019 (Stockcharts.com)

I am not bullish about the US markets. Yesterday, Fed's decision to cut interest rate could be taken as a sign of weakness in the US economy. As the action of the Fed contradicts the trend of the main stock market barometers, such as DJIA, S&P500 and Nasdaq, we should take a cautious stance, especially since the stock markets have rallied almost 200% from its low in 2009.

Wednesday, October 30, 2019

Gtronic: Earnings Dropped

Result Update

For QE30/9/2019, Gtronic's net profit rose 133% q-o-q but dropped 20% y-o-y to RM18.9 million while revenue rose 41% q-o-q but dropped 24% y-o-y to RM66 million. Net profit rose q-o-q due to higher revenue as a result of higher volume loadings and better economies of scale achieved from certain of the Group’s customers as well as better utilization of operational resources and facilities.


Table: Gtronic's last 8 quarterly results


Graph: Gtronic's last 51 quarterly results

Financial Position

Gtronic's financial position is still very healthy with current ratio at 4.4 times and gearing ratio at 0.16 time.

Valuation 

Gtronic (closed at RM2.20 yesterday) is now trading at a PE of 28 times (based on last 4 quarters' EPS of 7.80 sen). At this elevated PER, Gtronic is deemed overvalued.

Technical Outlook

Gtronic broke above its downtrend line at RM1.75 in September. The share price should find support at the 10-week moving average line at around RM2.00.


Chart 1: Gtronic's weekly chart as at Oct 29, 2019 (Source: Malaysiastock.biz)

Gtronic monthly MACD is poised to cross above its signal line. When that happens, the uptrend will pick up pace.


Chart 2: Gtronic's monthly chart as at Oct 29, 2019 (Source: Malaysiastock.biz)

Conclusion

Despite weaker financial performance and demanding valuation, I am keeping my rating for Gtronic to a HOLD. 

Note:

I hereby confirm that I do not have any direct interest in the security or securities mentioned in this post. However, I could have an indirect interest in the security or securities mentioned as some of my clients may have an interest in the acquisition or disposal of the aforementioned security or securities. As investor, you should fully research any security before making an investment decision.

Tuesday, October 29, 2019

Market Outlook as at October 29, 2019

After a study of the various indices in our market, I can see that FBMMSCAP (for mid-cap) has broken above its downtrend line while FBMACE has just tested the horizontal line at 4900. 


Chart 1: FBMMSCAP's weekly chart as at Oct 25, 2019 (Source: Shareinvestor.com)


Chart 2: FBMACE's weekly chart as at Oct 25, 2019 (Source: Shareinvestor.com)

What have propelled the above 2 indices to the point of breaking out or nearly breaking out? I think the following sectors provide the answer- energy, technology and construction.


Chart 3: ENERGY's weekly chart as at Oct 25, 2019 (Source: Shareinvestor.com)


Chart 4: TECHNOLOGY's weekly chart as at Oct 25, 2019 (Source: Shareinvestor.com)


Chart 5: CONSTRUCTION's weekly chart as at Oct 25, 2019 (Source: Shareinvestor.com)

Meanwhile our main market barometers- FBMKLCI and FBMEMAS are slowly shaping up for a recovery play. You can see the stochastic indicators are both oversold and about to turn upward while the ADXs in the DMI are at their highs and poised to dip. When both of these go in the direction we anticipated, we may see a broad market rebound at the year end, which may lead to a CNY rally.


Chart 6; FBMKLCI's weekly chart as at Oct 25, 2019 (Source: Shareinvestor.com)


Chart 7: FBMEMAS weekly chart as at Oct 25, 2019 (Source: Shareinvestor.com)

Monday, October 28, 2019

UNISEM: Earnings Plummeted Again

Results Update

For QE30/9/2019, Unisem's pre-tax profit dropped 50% q-o-q or 75% y-o-y to RM10 million  while revenue was mix- rose 1.4% q-o-q but dropped 10.8% y-o-y to RM316 million. The lower pre-tax profit was primarily attributable to net expenses incurred on severance against reversal of retirement benefits in PT Unisem.

Unisem reported a loss after tax due to higher effective tax rate arising from the reversal of retirement benefits in PT Unisem amounting to RM6.53 million as well as the losses of a subsidiary company which cannot be used to offset against profits of other companies in the Group.


Table: Unisem's last 8 quarterly results


Graph: Unisem's last 60 quarterly results

Financial Position

As at 30/9/2019, Unisem's financial position is deemed satisfactory with current ratio at 2.6 times while gearing ratio at 0.3 time.

Valuation

Unisem (closed at RM2.56 yesterday) is now trading at a PE of 45 times (based on last 4 quarters' EPS of 5.61 sen). At this PER, Unisem is deemed overvalued.

Technical Outlook

Recently, Unisem rebounded to test its downtrend line at RM2.60. While it went above the downtrend line, the breakout could have sustained.


Chart: Unisem's monthly chart as at Oct 25, 2019 (Source: Malaysiastock.biz)

Conclusion

Based on weaker financial performance and bearish technical outlook, I rate Unisem as a SELL.

Note:

I hereby confirm that I do not have any direct interest in the security or securities mentioned in this post. However, I could have an indirect interest in the security or securities mentioned as some of my clients may have an interest in the acquisition or disposal of the aforementioned security or securities. As investor, you should fully research any security before making an investment decision.