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Thursday, March 29, 2018

PMetal: Downtrend Has Begun

Today PMetal finally succumbed to the selling pressure and crashed thru the recent low of RM4.73. It came within a hair's breadth of touching its 200-day SMA line at RM4.23. its intr-day low was RM4.29. Despite the rebound, PMetal is likely to commence on its downtrend. Thus, this stock is likely to under-perform the market.


Chart 1: PMETAL's daily chart as at Mar 29, 2018_4.15pm (Source: Malaysiastock.biz)

The likely reason for the technical breakdown in the share price is the weakness in the prices of aluminium. From the chart below, we can see that aluminium has broken its accelearted uptrend line at USD2100/mt.


Chart 2: Aluminium's weekly chart as at Mar 28, 2018 (Source: investing.com)

VS: Earnings Stayed Strong

Result Update

For QE31/1/2018, VS's profit before tax rose 26% q-o-q or 13% y-o-y to RM69 million while revenue rose 3% q-o-q or 46%  y-o-y to RM1.113 billion.


Table 1: VS's last 8 quarterly results

The Group recorded higher revenue y-o-y from its Malaysia & Indonesia segments which more than offset the decline in the China segment. Revenue for Malaysia segment rose due to higher orders from key customers while Indonesia segment benefited from a change in an existing customer's purchasing arrangement (from consignment to turnkey manufacturing). The China segment's revenue dropped due to change in sales mix and contribution from new customers.

Meanwhile, profit before tax increased to RM68.5 million from RM60.6 million in the previous quarter. The higher-than-proportionate improvement in profit before tax was mainly due to profit contribution from China as a result of better sales mix. Despite Malaysia segment's profit before tax was comparable to previous quarter due 


Table 2: VS's quarterly results contribution by geographical segments

From the graph below, we can see that VS's earning growth lagged behind its revenue growth, due to lower profit margin. If profit margin suffered in the past few quarters when USD-MYR exchange rate was favorable, how will VS perform when USD-MYR exchange rate turned unfavorable?


Graph: VS's last 52 quarterly results

Valuation

VS (closed at RM2.52 yesterday) is trading at a trailing PE of 17.5 times (based on last 4 quarters' EPS of 14.38 sen). At this PER, VS is deemed fairly valued.

Technical Outlook

VS had a strong rally after it broke above the horizontal line at 14 sen in 2014. However the monthly MACD is poised to do a negative crossover, which could lead to a period of price consolidation between the 20 & 30-month EMA lines at RM2.40-2.50.


Chart: VS's monthly chart as at Mar 28, 2018 (Source: Shareinvestor.com)

Conclusion

Based on satisfactory financial performance, reasonable valuation & still-positive technical outlook, VS is still a good stock for long-term investment.

Note:

I hereby confirm that I do not have any direct interest in the security or securities mentioned in this post. However, I could have an indirect interest in the security or securities mentioned as some of my clients may have an interest in the acquisition or disposal of the aforementioned security or securities. As investor, you should fully research any security before making an investment decision.

Astro: Earnings Continued To Rise

Results Update

For QE31/1/2018, Astro's net profit rose 24% q-o-q or 25% y-o-y to RM182 million while revenue dropped 0.6% q-o-q or 0.7% y-o-y to RM1.39 billion.

Revenue dropped y-o-y mainly due to a decrease in subscription revenue, offset by higher merchandise sales, advertising and production revenue. The decrease in subscription revenue was mainly due to lower package takeup. The increase in merchandise sales was due to increase in number of products sold which was mainly driven by the tactical campaigns executed for the current quarter. The increase in advertising revenue was due to higher spending for year-end festive celebration.

Net profit increased by RM37.6m or 26.3% compared with the corresponding quarter due to lower net finance costs. Lower net finance cost was due to favorable unrealised forex gain arising from unhedged non-current balance sheet liabilities comprising, finance lease liabilities and vendor financing. The increase was offset with decrease in EBITDA and higher tax expenses.


Table 1: Astro's last 8 quarterly results


Graph: Astro's last 26 quarterly results

Valuation

Astro (closed at RM2.02 yesterday) is now trading at a trailing PE of 13.7 times (based on last 4 quarters' EPS of 14.79 sen). In addition, Astro paid out dividend quarterly which amounted to 12.50 sen for the last 4 quarters; giving the stock an attractive DY of 6.2%. Based on these PER and DY, Astro is deemed fairly attractive.

Technical Outlook

Astro dropped from RM2.90 in October last year to a low of RM2.02 yesterday. It is now revisiting the low when the stock was re-quoted in October 2012.


 Chart: Astro's weekly chart as at Mar 28, 2018 (Source: Malaysiastock.biz)

Conclusion

Based on satisfactory financial performance & attractive valuation, I believe Astro is a good stock for long-term investment.

Note:

I hereby confirm that I do not have any direct interest in the security or securities mentioned in this post. However, I could have an indirect interest in the security or securities mentioned as some of my clients may have an interest in the acquisition or disposal of the aforementioned security or securities. As investor, you should fully research any security before making an investment decision.

Tuesday, March 27, 2018

Gtronic: Life Is Full Of Surprises

Result Update

For QE31/12/2017, Gtronic's net profit rose 74% q-o-q or 293% y-o-y to RM25 million while revenue rose 20% q-o-q or 124% y-o-y to RM105 million. Revenue rose q-o-q  due to the higher volume loadings and mass production of new products from certain customers in the Group. This led to a huge jump in net profit profit  to RM25.0 million from RM14.4 million in QE30/9/2017.

(Note: Gtronic's latest result for QE31/12/2017 was released on February 27.)


Table: Gtronic's last 8 quarterly results


Chart: Gtronic's last 48 quarterly results

Financial Position

Gtroni's financial position is healthy with current ratio at 2.5 times and gearing ratio at 0.4 time.

Valuation 

Gtronic (closed at RM4.52 yesterday) is now trading at a PE of 25 times (based on last 4 quarters' EPS of 18.04 sen). At this elevated PER, Gtronic is deemed fully valued.

Technical Outlook

Gtronic broke the strong horizontal support of RM5.80 on March 1. Then it broke below the intermediate uptrend line, SS at RM5.30 on March 21. Thereafter it quickly broke the next 2 horizontal lines at RM5.15 & RM4.80. It is now resting at the horizontal line of RM4.30. The selldown is likely due to overall poor market sentiment which has dragged down many stocks, including 2 other semiconductor stocks- MPI & Unisem. Life is full of surprises; just when Gtronic starts to deliver the goods, the share price took a plunge!!


Chart 1: Gtronic's weekly chart as at March 26, 2018 (Source: Malaysiastock.biz)

My technical studies below shows the stock has a tendency to go one-up before topping off. Despite the sharp drop, the stock is still trading above its long-term uptrend line with support at RM4.00.


Chart 2: Gtronic's weekly chart as at March 26, 2018 (Source: Malaysiastock.biz)

Conclusion

Based on satisfactory financial performance & position, Gtronic can be a good stock for long-term investment. Since the stock is still trading above its long-term uptrend line, I think it is fairly attractive after the recent selldown. 

Note:

I hereby confirm that I do not have any direct interest in the security or securities mentioned in this post. However, I could have an indirect interest in the security or securities mentioned as some of my clients may have an interest in the acquisition or disposal of the aforementioned security or securities. As investor, you should fully research any security before making an investment decision.

Monday, March 26, 2018

Haio: Cloudy Outlook Ahead

Result Update

For QE31/1/2018, Haio's net profit dropped 10% q-o-q but rose 25% y-o-y to RM19 million while revenue dropped 17% q-o-q or 4% y-o-y to RM103 million. Overall revenue dropped q-o-q mainly due to lower revenue generated from the MLM and Retail divisions which dropped 20.9% & 10.5% respectively. This has more than offset the increase in revenue for Wholesale of 4.0%.

Revenue for the MLM division was lower because of higher revenue in the immediate preceding quarter due to higher sales generated as a result of incentive trip promotion campaign and 25th year anniversary grand sales promotion. The revenue for the Retail division dropped because of higher revenue in the immediate preceding quarter was mainly derived from its half yearly members’ sales promotion campaign.

These led to lower PBT for MLM and Retail divisions of 27.1% & 80% respectively which more than offset the increase in PBT for Wholesale of 42.9%.


Table: Haio's last 8 quarterly results 


Graph: Haio's last 52 quarterly results

Financial Position 

Haio's financial position as at 31/1/2018 is deemed healthy with current ratio at 3.1 times and total liabilities to total equity at 0.3 times.

Valuation

Haio (closed at RM4.70 last Friday) is trading at a trailing PE of 17.7 times (based on last 4 quarters' EPS of 26.51 sen). Based on earning CAGR of 31% over the past 2 years, Haio's PEG ratio is about 0.6x. Thus, Haio is considered attractive as a growth stock.

Technical Outlook

Haio has risen sharply from RM1.50 in 2016 to recent high of RM5.60. However it has dropped below the horizontal line of RM5.10 as well as its 30-week EMA line at RM5.00. This could signal te end of the uptrend for the stock.


Chart 1: Haio's weekly chart as at Mar 23, 2018  (Source: Shareinvestor.com)


Chart 2: Haio's monthly chart as at Mar 23, 2018  (Source: Shareinvestor.com)

Conclusion

Based on good financial performance & fairly attractive valuation, Haio is a good stock for long-term investment. However I would rate Haio as Under-perform as its technical outlook has turned mildly bearish.

Note:

I hereby confirm that I do not have any direct interest in the security or securities mentioned in this post. However, I could have an indirect interest in the security or securities mentioned as some of my clients may have an interest in the acquisition or disposal of the aforementioned security or securities. As investor, you should fully research any security before making an investment decision.

Market Outlook as at March 26, 2018

Since early January, our market has been behaving like a person with mental disorder. Blue chip stocks represented by FBMKLCI have gone higher while most other stocks have dropped sharply. This is borne out by the 5 charts below.


Chart 1: FBMKLCI's daily chart as at Mar 23, 2018 (Source: Shareinvestor.com)


Chart 2: FBM70 & FBMSCAP's daily chart as at Mar 23, 2018 (Source: Shareinvestor.com)


Chart 3: FBMACE & FBMFLG's daily chart as at Mar 23, 2018 (Source: Shareinvestor.com)

If you go thru the individual sector indices, you will notice that Finance and Consumer indices have gone up steadily or sharply, while Technology, Construction & Property indices have dropped substantially. It is quite possible that the gainers in our market have benefited from buying from local funds for political reason. Otherwise the stock market truly reflects the state of our economy; where retail players are just as tapped out as the man in the street. Until our economic growth expands widely and begins to fill the coffers of the man in the street, we probably will have to wait for a long time for the bulls to come back in our market.

US Market Outlook as at March 23, 2018

Dow Jones Industrial Average ('DJIA') has been swinging wildly for the past 2 months. The latest concern for Wall Street is the threat of a trade war started by Washington. Chartwise, DJIA is sitting right on the uptrend line as well as the 40-week EMA line (equivalent to the 200-day SMA line). If DJIA were to break below 23500 next week, the uptrend could be over. 


Chart 1: DJIA's weekly chart as at Mar 23, 2018 (Source: Stockchart.com)

The daily charts of DJIA and S&P500 show these indices are at their 200-day SMA line.


Chart 2: DJIA's daily chart as at Mar 23, 2018 (Source: Stockchart.com)


Chart 3: S&P500's daily chart as at Mar 23, 2018 (Source: Stockchart.com)

3 selected indices from France, Germany & Japan (3 largest OECD countries) show that their main market barometer have broken their uptrend lines.


Chart 4: CAC, DAX & NIKK's weekly chart as at Mar 23, 2018 (Source: Stockchart.com)

Fortunately, 3 selected indices from Asian markets (HSI, STI & BSE) show their main market barometers are still in an uptrend.


Chart 5: HSI, STI & BSE's weekly chart as at Mar 23, 2018 (Source: Stockchart.com)

Will Bursa Malaysia follow the Asian markets and stay afloat or will we tumble down if US markets go into a downtrend? We will have to wait and see.

Thursday, March 22, 2018

MREITs: Looking Attractive Again

This morning we saw Bursa instituting sizable buy-ins for 3 REITs that had dropped substantially over the past few days or weeks. This means that some fund(s) have been so aggressively selling down that the fund(s) had oversold the REITs. Does this mean the selling will end soon?

Note: For the benefit of those who are new to the stock market, a buy-in is instituted by the exchange if the seller of a security failed to deliver because of he doesn't have the security. Buy-in is normally carried out on T+4 and sellers who wish to sell to a buy-in must have ready security to deliver. The exchange will penalize the "short-seller" by levying a penalty equivalent to 10 bids on the security's last closing price. This penalty is then passed onto the successful seller to the buy-in. Thus, selling to buy-ins is a fairly popular sport among remisiers but the chance of success is no better than striking Magnum 4Ds.


Picture: Buy-in on Bursa (Source: BTX)

The charts of the above oversold REITs are given below. IGBREIT is at the uptrend line at RM1.47; PAVREIT broke the uptrend line at RM1.70 in November 2017; and SUNREIT just broke the uptrend line at RM1.65 two days ago.


Chart 1: IGBREIT's weekly chart as at Mar 21, 2018 (Source: Malaysiastock.biz)


Chart 2: PAVREIT's weekly chart as at Mar 21, 2018 (Source: Malaysiastock.biz)


Chart 3: SUNREIT's weekly chart as at Mar 21, 2018 (Source: Malaysiastock.biz)

The size of this morning buy-ins and the fact that 3 of them were REITs are pretty interesting. As you might have read, Feb has raised its benchmark fund rate from 1.5% to 1.75% yesterday. The interest rate hike is being carried out for many reasons, such as stronger economic growth and increased inflation rate. But what lie behind the plethora of reasons to raise interest rate is the equally important need to conserve bullets to fight the next recession or financial crisis. If interest rate remains zero-bound, Fed will have limited room to maneuver in the event of any economic slowdown or crisis.

If you look at the long term charts for 10 and 30-year Treasury yield, they are still in a downtrend, albeit risen fairly substantial off the low.


Chart 4:  10-year Treasury Yield as at Mar 21, 2018 (Source: Yahoo Finance) 

 
Chart 5: 30-year Treasury Yield as at Mar 21, 2018 (Source: Yahoo Finance) 

What does Treasury yield have to do with MREITs? Well, REITs are viewed as fixed income instruments, which move in an inverse correlation to the interest rate movement. If interest rate rises, the income produced by REITs will be worth less. Thus this will lead to a drop in the value of the REITs. This article from Forbes magazine makes the case for active management of our investment in REITs, taking advantage of period of selldown of REITs due to interest rate volatility in order to maximize our return from our investment. To wit, it concludes:

When thinking about the asset allocation implications of this phenomena, two things stand out:  First, interest-rate increases in and of themselves are not necessarily bad for REITs, and in fact, when measured over longer periods of time, They have generally been associated with periods of REIT out-performance. Second, REIT sell-offs associated with spikes in interest-rate volatility have often provided active REIT managers with opportunities to add exposure at attractive levels just as fundamentals were improving. The relationship between REITs and Interest rates is volatile and unstable, but this complex relationship leads to both short-term risk and long-term opportunity.

Based on the above, I think it may be a good time to slowly nibble into the beaten down REITs. I have posted above REITs when they were fairly attractive (here). This time I will sunstitute IGBREIT for CMMT while retaining SUNREIT and PAVREIT. The valuation table is given below:


Table: Selected REITs' valuation

Note:
I hereby confirm that I do not have any direct interest in the security or securities mentioned in this post. However, I could have an indirect interest in the security or securities mentioned as some of my clients may have an interest in the acquisition or disposal of the aforementioned security or securities. As investor, you should fully research any security before making an investment decision.

Tuesday, March 20, 2018

Astro: Looking Even More Attractive

Astro has been dropping over the past 4 months, from a high of RM2.90 to a low of RM2.14 now. If you look at the chart below, we can see that Astro share prices have been moving in a steep downward channel, ABCD which flattened out slightly into WXYZ. Occasionally it would go below the lower line before rebounding back into the downward channel (see C"D" and Y"Z"). Assuming this pattern persists, Astro may test the second lower, Y"Z" possibly at RM2.10 before recovery.

Astro (currently at RM2.16) is now trading at a trailing PER of 15.3 times (based on last 4 quarters' EPS of 14.1 sen) and has a dividend yield of 5.8% (based last 4 quarters' dividend totaling 12.5 sen). At these ratios, Astro is deemed fairly attractive.


Chart: Astro's weekly chart as at Mar 20, 2018_4.06pm  (Source: Malaysiastock.biz)

Conclusion

Based on satisfacoiry financial performance & attractive valuation, Astro is considered a good stock for long-term investment.

Note:
I hereby confirm that I do not have any direct interest in the security or securities mentioned in this post. However, I could have an indirect interest in the security or securities mentioned as some of my clients may have an interest in the acquisition or disposal of the aforementioned security or securities. As investor, you should fully research any security before making an investment decision.

Hevea: Trading at Attractive Valuation

Results Update

For QE31/12/2017, Hevea's pre-tax profit rose 27% q-o-q but dropped 66% y-o-y to RM10 million while revenue rose 12% q-o-q but dropped 9% y-o-y to RM133 million. PBT rose q-o-q due mainly to the better performance at the particleboard sector as the planned annual preventive maintenance was done in the previous quarter. Profit after tax rose sharply due to a tax credit as the company recognized RM4.34 million of deferred tax assets arising principally from unabsorbed allowances on investment tax allowances available to the company less temporary differences in respect of excess of capital allowance over book depreciation.
(Note: Hevea's latest quarterly result was announced on 27 February.)


Table: Hevea's last 8 quarterly results


Graph: Hevea's last 41 quarterly results

Financial Position

Hevea's financial position is deemed healthy with current ratio at 3.7 times and total liabilities to total equity of 0.2 times.

Valuation

Hevea (closed at RM0.93 yesterday) is now trading at a PE of 7.8 times (based on last 4 quarters' EPS of 12.03 sen). At this PER, Hevea is still deemed fairly valued. In addition, Hevea pays a decent dividend, with yield of 5.2%.

Technical Outlook

Hevea could be resting on its long-term uptrend line, SS at RM0.90.


 Chart: Hevea's weekly chart as at Mar 20, 2018_12.30pm  (Source: Malaysiastock.biz)

Conclusion

Based on improving financial performance, healthy financial position and mildly positive technical outlook, Hevea is deemed to be a good stock for long-term investment.

Note:
I hereby confirm that I do not have any direct interest in the security or securities mentioned in this post. However, I could have an indirect interest in the security or securities mentioned as some of my clients may have an interest in the acquisition or disposal of the aforementioned security or securities. As investor, you should fully research any security before making an investment decision.

Monday, March 19, 2018

MKH: Exciting Prospect Ahead

Result Update

For QE31/12/2017, MKH's net profit rose 171% q-o-q but dropped 59% y-o-y to RM16 million while revenue dropped 26% q-o-q & 26% y-o-y to RM194 million. Despite the drop in revenue by RM66.7 million, the profit before tax for the current quarter of RM27.4 million was higher compared to the immediate preceding quarter of RM17.0 million mainly due to improvement in loss before tax to RM0.4 million in the current quarter as compared to immediate preceding quarter loss before tax of RM12.8 million from the plantation division with lower average production cost and absence of biological assets written off of RM4.8 million. The lower revenue was mainly due to lower revenue from the property and construction division as the new development phases namely, Pinang and The Palm in Hill Park Shah Alam still at the preliminary stage of development.

Note: MKH's latest result was released on February 28, 2018.


Table: MKH's last 8 quarterly results


Graph: MKH's last 20 quarterly results

Future Prospect

In a recent article in The Edge Daily entitled"A Year of Harvest for MKH", MKH's Executive Chairman Tan Sri Alex Chen spoke about its palm oil estate achieving bumper harvest for current financial year as the palm oil trees reach their productive age, with projected output of 28 tonnes per hectare. In addition, its property development segment is expected to do well as it will be launching more projects with total GDV of RM1.15 billion. This will add to its total unbilled sales of RM903.5 million as at 31/12/2017.

Financial Position

MKH's financial position as at 31/12/2017 is deemed adequate with current ratio at 1.66 times and total liabilities to total equity at 1.07 times.

Valuation

MKH (closed at RM1.53 last Friday) is now trading at a trailing PER of 6.9x (based on last 4 quarters' EPS of 22.16 sen). Dividend yield of 3.3% is still respectable despite heavy investment in the plantation segment.

Technical Outlook 

MKH has declined substantially from its peak at RM3.50 in June 2014. Currently it seems to have found good support at the horizontal line at RM1.50. If this strong support failed, its next strong support is at RM1.00.


Chart: MKH's monthly chart as at Mar 16, 2018 (Source: Shareinvestor.com)

Conclusion

Based on satisfactory financial performance, attractive valuation and positive technical outlook, MKH is a good stock to consider for long-term investment.

Note:
I hereby confirm that I do not have any direct interest in the security or securities mentioned in this post. However, I could have an indirect interest in the security or securities mentioned as some of my clients may have an interest in the acquisition or disposal of the aforementioned security or securities. As investor, you should fully research any security before making an investment decision.

APM: Earnings Remained Weak

Result Update

For QE31/12/2017, APM's net profit increased by 1% q-o-q but dropped 15% y-o-y to RM13 million while revenue increased by 12% q-o-q but dropped 4% y-o-y to RM328 million.  Revenue rose  q-o-q due to higher sale of OEMs parts in the Interior & Plastic Division, primarily driven by the new model launches in 3rd quarter of 2017. PBT rose 7.6% q-o-q due to improved performance recorded mainly in the Interior & Plastics Division, augmented by recognition of fair value gain on investment properties of RM4.7 million.

Profit after tax rose 23% q-o-q due to prior year deferred tax credit recognized in QE31/12/2017 while net profit rose marginally by 1% as non-controlling interests' share of net profit rose to RM5.959 million from RM3.159 million in QE30/9/2017.

Note: The latest result was released on February 28, 2018.


Table: APM's last 8 quarterly results


Chart: APM's last 39 quarterly results

Financial Position

APM's financial position as at 31/12/2017 is deemed healthy with current ratio at 2.94 times and total equity to total liabilities at 0.28 times. Its net cash is substantial at RM196 million or equivalent to RM0.84 per share.

Valuation

APM (closed at RM3.45 last Friday) is now trading at a PE of 17.3 times (based on last 4 quarters' EPS of 19.99 sen). If the net cash of 84 sen were deducted, APM would have a PER of 13.0 times. As the company is beginning to recover from weak automotive sales, there is good prospect of higher earning and improved PER.

Technical Outlook

APM is in a downtrend for the past 4 years. It is now resting on the strong horizontal line at RM3.50.


Chart: APM's monthly chart as at Mar 16, 2018 (Source: Shareinvestor.com)

Conclusion

Based on improved financial performance, healthy financial position & reasonably attractive valuation, APM is deemed a good stock for long-term investment.

Note:
I hereby confirm that I do not have any direct interest in the security or securities mentioned in this post. However, I could have an indirect interest in the security or securities mentioned as some of my clients may have an interest in the acquisition or disposal of the aforementioned security or securities. As investor, you should fully research any security before making an investment decision.

Tuesday, March 13, 2018

BAUTO: Earning's Rising Again


Results Update

For QE31/1/2018, BAuto's net profit increased 82% q-o-q or 61% y-o-y to RM40 million while revenue rose 19% q-o-q or 65% y-o-y to RM559 million.

Group revenue rose q-o-q mainly due to higher sales volume arising from the launch of the new CX-5 model in both the domestic and the Philippines market. In line with higher revenue, Group pre-tax profit soared primarily due to improved sales volume in the domestic operations arising from the new CX-5 model and higher share of profit contribution from its associate company, MMSB. The higher share of profit contribution from MMSB was mainly due to increase in production volume for the new CX-5 model to cater for both the domestic market and export to the ASEAN market (such as Thailand, Indonesia, the Philippines and Cambodia).


Table: BAuto's last 8 quarters' financial performance

From the graph below, we can see that BAuto's profits are curving up and revenue has surpassed the high recorded in QE31/10/2015.


Graph: BAuto's last 23 quarters' financial performance  

Valuation

BAuto (closed at RM2.02 yesterday) has a fair PER of 22 times (based on last 4 quarters' EPS of 9.1 sen). At this PER, BAuto is deemed fully valued. However if its earning continue to grow, the PER will drop and the stock will be more attractive.

Technical Outlook

BAuto has been moving in a sideways for the 2 &1/2 years. The range is between RM1.80 & RM2.40.


Chart: BAuto's weekly chart as at Mar 12, 2018 (Source: Shareinvestor.com)

Conclusion

Based on improved financial performance, I revise the rating for BAuto from a HOLD to a BUY.

Note:

I hereby confirm that I do not have any direct interest in the security or securities mentioned in this post. However, I could have an indirect interest in the security or securities mentioned as some of my clients may have an interest in the acquisition or disposal of the aforementioned security or securities. As investor, you should fully research any security before making an investment decision.

Thursday, March 08, 2018

Market Outlook as at March 8, 2018

Yesterday FBMKLCI broke below its uptrend line at 1848. This breakdown of the heavily managed index, with hard to decipher pattern or trend may be cast aside for a while if not for a more serious breakdown of FBM70 index. Let's take a closer look at both indices which are appended below.

1) FBMKLCI rallied from December last year after it broke above the downtrend line, RR at 1725. It made a high at 1880 in late January. Subsequent attempt at that high failed, setting the stage for a possible double top reversal of this short rally. Yesterday it broke the uptrend line, SS at 1848. If it cannot recover back above this level, it may continue to slide to the next support at around 1820 & below that, at 1800.


Chart 1: FBMKLCI daily chart as at Mar 7, 2018 (Source: Shareinvestor.com)

2) FBM70 broke to the upside of a Cup-with-handle formation in December last year. Like FBMKLCI, this index made a high (of 16850) in late January. Subsequent attempt at that high failed, setting the stage for a possible double top reversal of this short rally. The subsequent sharp pullback tested the extension of the line connecting the top of the Cup (AB) at 15700. A rebound ensued until it was cut short by the selldown in US two weeks. This brought the index down to the same line again. Yesterday FBM70 convincingly broke below this line.


Chart 2: FBM70I daily chart as at Mar 7, 2018 (Source: Shareinvestor.com)

 Based on the double breakdown noted above, I expect our market to be very weak. If there is no sharp rebound to correct the above breakdown, we could well be going into a period of correction in the next few weeks.

Tuesday, March 06, 2018

Semiconductor Stocks: Down For Now

A few months ago, I mentioned about the change in forex outlook (more favorable for MYR) and its impact on share prices. I have recommended that you should shift from exporters to importers. 

If you have read thru some of the notes to the accounts of exporters that had suffered sharp drop in profits, you would have seen the similar commentary on the impact of this unfavorable forex movement. For instance, this is the explanation given by Thong Guan for its sharp drop in profits: "Lower profit before tax for the current quarter was mainly due to the reduction in gross profit margin in plastic products mainly due to lower selling prices of USD sales when translated to MYR as a result of the depreciation of the USD against MYR especially during the fourth quarter."

I can imagine a situation where exporters who had been enjoying super profit due to favorable forex movement in 2016 and early part of 2017, were pressured by their customers to "share" the profit in the form of lower prices. Naturally the recent drop in profits would lead to these exporters raising their prices again but the price increase will not be immediate nor will they match the swing in forex movement. This laggard effect would mean that exporters will have 2-3 quarters of lower profit. t

That's why we have seen a selldown for some exporters, like MPI and Unisem even though the Semicoductor Index in Philadelphia (SOX) is still trending higher. I believe that MPI and Unisem share price will likely to stabilize at the current level for a while before continuing they return to the prior uptrend. Thus these stocks could be good stocks to consider for long-term investment in the current weak market.


Chart 1: SOX's daily chart as at mar 5, 2018 (Source: Stockcharts.com)

Below are the charts for MPI and Unisem. They are now resting at their respective uptrend line support at RM8.70 for MPI and RM2.55 for Unisem.


Chart 2: MPI's weekly chart as at Mar 5, 2018 (Source: Malaysiastock.biz)


Chart 3; Unisem's weekly chart as at Mar 5, 2018 (Source: Malaysiastock.biz)

Note:

I hereby confirm that I do not have any direct interest in the security or securities mentioned in this post. However, I could have an indirect interest in the security or securities mentioned as some of my clients may have an interest in the acquisition or disposal of the aforementioned security or securities. As investor, you should fully research any security before making an investment decision.