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Thursday, August 17, 2017

PMetal: Earnings Stayed Strong

Results Update

For QE30/6/2017, PMetal's net profit increased by 1% q-o-q or 3% y-o-y to RM150 million while revenue rose 3% q-o-q or 31% y-o-y to RM2.079 billion.  Higher profit was mainly due to the strengthening of metal price during the current year quarter under review and continuous improvement in reducing the production costs


Table: PMetal's last 8 quarterly results


Graph: PMetal's 39 quarterly results

Aluminium Outlook


Contrary to my earlier post on aluminium outlook, prices shot up in the past 2 weeks from USD1985 a tonne to USD2100 a tonne today. Its immediate resistance is at the horizontal lines at USD2100 and USD2200.


Chart 1: Aluminium's monthly chart from 2009 to Aug 2017 (Source: Investing.com)

Prospect

PMetal is fairly confident that its financial performance this year will be satisfactory. This is based on the following:
Aluminium price continues to increase as more and more production cuts are being announced in China according to the government supply reform policy. As a result, the China smelting production is expected to slow down and the world’s supply and demand will tilt towards a deficit situation which will support long term aluminium price performance.
 Our smelting operations will continue to run at full capacity for the remaining of the year with demand continues to be well supported. We will remain focused on expanding our value-added products and improving the overall operation efficiency.


Valuation

PMetal (closed at RM3.34 at end of morning session today) is now trading at a PER of 21 times (based on last 4 quarters' EPS of 16.25 sen). Based on this PER, PMetal is deemed fairly valued.

Technical Outlook

PMetal broke above its recent high of RM3.00. This leads to the continuation of its prior uptrend.


Chart 2: PMetal's weekly chart as at Aug 16, 2017 (Source: ShareInvestor.com)

PMetal was rising in a long-term upward channel up until January this year. At the start of the year, PMetal broke above the upper line at RM1.70 and shot up.


Chart 3: PMetal's monthly chart as at Aug 17, 2017 (Source: ShareInvestor.com)

Conclusion

Based on strong financial performance, fair valuation and bullish technical outlook, PMetal is a good stock for long-term investment.

Note:

I hereby confirm that I do not have any direct interest in the security or securities mentioned in this post. However, I could have an indirect interest in the security or securities mentioned as some of my clients may have an interest in the acquisition or disposal of the aforementioned security or securities. As investor, you should fully research any security before making an investment decision.

Thursday, August 10, 2017

CEPAT: Too Slow For Comfort

Result Update

For QE30/6/2017, Cepat's net profit increased by 56% q-o-q or 91% y-o-y to RM9.7 million while turnover rose 19% q-o-q or 37% y-o-y to RM70 million. Profits rose q-o-q due mainly to an increase in FFB production and export of electricity by 27% and 21% respectively while the oil mill also contributed by giving a higher milling margin. CPO and PK selling price decreased by 14% and 39% respectively.

 
Table: Cepat's last 8 quarterly results

Graph: Cepat's last 43 quarterly results

Valuation

Cepat (at RM0.84 yesterday) is trading at a PE of 8 times (based on adjusted last 4 quarters' EPS of 10.48 sen) as well as trading at only 0.5x its book value (based on NTA of RM1.57 per share as at 30/6/2017).At these multiples, Cepat is deemed fairly attractive.

Technical Outlook

Cepat is still in an intermediate downtrend line. If it can break above this downtrend line at RM0.94, Cepat may begin its next upleg.

Chart: Cepat's monthy chart as at November 16, 2016 (Source: Malaysiastock.biz)

Conclusion

Based on improving financial performance & attractive valuation, Cepat could be a good stock for long-term investment.

Note:

I hereby confirm that I do not have any direct interest in the security or securities mentioned in this post. However, I could have an indirect interest in the security or securities mentioned as some of my clients may have an interest in the acquisition or disposal of the aforementioned security or securities. As investor, you should fully research any security before making an investment decision.

Wednesday, August 09, 2017

Harta: Earning Growth Continued

Result Update

For QE30/6/2017, Harta's net profit rose 8% q-o-q or 72% y-o-y to RM96 million while revenue rose 14% q-o-q or 50% y-o-y to RM601 million. Revenue rose q-o-q due to increase in sales volume and average selling price. Profit before tax dropped 2.3% q-o-q mainly due to higher upkeep cost, depreciation expense, packaging material cost, chemical cost and term loan interest expense.


 Table: Harta's last 8 quarterly results


Graph: Harta's last 39 quarterly results

Valuation

Harta (closed at RM7.15 yesterday) is trading at a trailing PER of 36 times (based on last 4 quarters' EPS of 19.68 sen). At this PER, Harta is overvalued.

Technical Outlook

Harta is in a long-term uptrend line, with strong support at the 20-month EMA line at RM5.00. Harta needs to consolidate its recent gain and/or wait for its profit to grow further before the uptrend can continue.


Chart: Harta's monthly chart as at Aug 8, 2017 (Source: shareinvestor.com)

Conclusion

Based on improved operating performance, strong leadership in the rubber glove sector & capable management team, Harta is considered a good stock for long-term investment. Its rating is kept at HOLD due to its demanding valuation.

Note:
I hereby confirm that I do not have any direct interest in the security or securities mentioned in this post. However, I could have an indirect interest in the security or securities mentioned as some of my clients may have an interest in the acquisition or disposal of the aforementioned security or securities. As investor, you should fully research any security before making an investment decision.

Tuesday, August 08, 2017

Market Outlook as at August 8, 2017

With each passing day, our main index is becoming more and more like a Potemkin village- a beautiful facade that hides the carnage unseen by the general public. Today is no different: The index - by that I mean FBMKLCI - was up 3.7 points while the scoreboard was showing losers outnumbering gainers by 602 to 269! Who can we believe- the index or the scoreboard?! 


Chart 1: FBMKLCI's daily chart as at Aug 8, 2017_12.30 (Source: Shareinvestor.com) 

After you've glanced at FBM70, FBMSCAP & FBMFLG, the true state of the market revealed itself. Our market has weakened steadily over the past few weeks. The sudden selldown for some high-flyers is a warning sign of more selling to come.


Chart 2: FBM70's daily chart as at Aug 8, 2017_12.30 (Source: Shareinvestor.com) 


Chart 3: FBMFLG's daily chart as at Aug 8, 2017_12.30 (Source: Shareinvestor.com) 


Chart 4: FBMSCAP's daily chart as at Aug 8, 2017_12.30 (Source: Shareinvestor.com) 

Even the brave FBMACE may be waving the white flag. It could have broken below its uptrend line. This is supported by the -DMI trending above the +DMI. Fortunately, MACD is still above the zero line, which means that the downtrend has not started for FBMACE.


Chart 5: FBMACE's daily chart as at Aug 8, 2017_12.30 (Source: Shareinvestor.com) 

Two months ago I wrote about the weakness in the market and the possible correction that will come which will present better opportunity to buy stocks at more attractive prices. Our market has been correcting ever since and prices are definitely more attractive now than in June. In times like this, you must avoid the urge to trade for small gain. Instead you must stiffen your resolve to invest for the long-term and to weather the short-term pain that will inevitably come as some of your stocks will sustain short-term losses before the market comes back. Good luck!

AEONCR: Rights Issue Selling

AEONCR's share price has risen substantially from a low of RM2.00 in 2011 to RM13.00 today. The price rally was due to the company's impressive profit track record (see the chart below).


Chart 1: AEONCR's monthly chart as at Aug 7, 2017 & quarterly profit during that period

A cursory glance at the above chart will reveal the fact that the share price from 2013 till today has been rather disappointing compared to the profit increase. The main reason for the lag in the share price performance is because of the sharp increase in gearing ratio as the company borrowed to fund its advances. See the next graph and table below.


Graph: AEONCR's gearing ratio over the past 10 years


Table: AEONCR's Financial Position over the past 10 years

The above table actually masked the acute increase in borrowing as part of the borrowing took the form of Perpetual Private Debt Securities, which has been classified under Total Equity. This PDS - amounted to RM276 million as at May 31, 2017 - is due for settlement in 2018. The interest rate of this debt instrument is rather high at 6.5%.

AEONCR is now carrying out a Rights Issue of ICULS in order to retire the PDS. The ex date of this Rights Issue is August 11. The ICULS is convertible to share at an exercise price of RM10.99. The mode of conversion is by surrendering 10990 ICULS in exchange for 1000 ordinary shares. The theoretical ex rights price should be about RM12.50 (assuming the share price is at RM12.80 on the last cum date).


Note on the mode of exercising the conversion of ICULS to shares

Due to poor market sentiment, AEONCR is now under heavy selling as investors are trying their best to avoid owning a stock where they will have to cough out money to subscribe for its Rights Issue.


Chart 2: AEONCR's daily chart as at Aug 8, 2017_12.30 (Source: Shareinvestor.com)

Before you join this charge of the Light Brigade, there are 2 things that you need to consider:

1) The Rights Issue is extremely small. 

If you own 1000 AEONCR now, you are entitled to subscribe for 2000 ICULS at RM1.00 each (or, total amount of the subscription money of RM2000 only). If you don't want to subscribe for the rights, you can sell it off but the price will be very minimal (about RM0.13 per unit). If you choose to just ignore it, it also fine as the opportunity loss is about RM260 for 2000 rights (though it's a sin to throw good money away).

2) The Rights Issue will rectify the gearing position somewhat

As mentioned above, the concerned about AEONCR's gearing ratio - the irony of paying a stiff  price being too successful - will be somewhat addressed. I say "somewhat addressed" because AEONCR is growing at such rapid pace, it will soon need to raise more fund. Thus investors have to ask them this question: Are you investing in good companies that's growing at rapid pace or companies that's good at financial engineering initiatives like bonus issue & share splits. The sad fact is that Bursa Malaysia today is rewarding companies in the latter categories and that will not make us a world class exchange.

Instead of charging in to sell your AEONCR, you may want to consider getting into this stock which has grown steadily over the past 6-7 years while paying out good dividend (at a yield of 4.9%).
Note:

I hereby confirm that I do not have any direct interest in the security or securities mentioned in this post. However, I could have an indirect interest in the security or securities mentioned as some of my clients may have an interest in the acquisition or disposal of the aforementioned security or securities. As investor, you should fully research any security before making an investment decision.

Tuesday, August 01, 2017

UTDPLT: Earning Soared

Background

Unoted Plantation Bhd ("UTDPLT") is involved in the cultivation and processing of palm oil, coconut and other plantation crops in a sustainable manner. Its estates are located in Malaysia and Indonesia, covering a total area of 50,855 hectares. For more, go here.

Historical Financial Performance

UTDPLT's top-line and bottom-line are both approaching the high recorded in FY2011. If profits can surpass the level achieved in FY2011, UTDPLT's share price may break to new high- similar to the 2010 upside breakout of the RM12.00 mark which led to the rally to RM27 by 2015. This is the basis for a call to track UTDPLT financial performance fro the next 1-2 quarters in anticipation of profit & price breakout.


Graph: UTDPLT's last 52 quarters' P&L
 
Recent Financial Results

For QE30/6/2017, UTDPLT's net profit rose 41% q-o-q or 52% y-o-y to RM110 million while revenue was mixed - down 6% q-o-q but up 28% y-o-y - to RM355 million. Profits rose q-o-q due to better financial results from its plantation & refinery divisions. The plantation division registered a 41.8% increase in the profit before tax in the current quarter from the previous quarter mainly due to a combination of higher production of CPO and PK, lower cost of production of CPO and a higher average CPO price achieved. The refinery recorded a 36.3% increase in profit before tax mainly due to more favorable hedging and trading positions.


Table: UTDPLT's last 8 quarterly P&L

Prospects For FY2017

Like other plantation companies, UTDPLT enjoyed recovery in palm oil production after the passing of El Nino in 2015-2016. To cap it off, crude palm oil prices had rallied due to concern that the recovery in overall palm oil production for the full year 2017, may not be as large as initially expected. Higher prices and output are likely to lead to a satisfactory year for FY2017.

Valuation

UTDPLT (closed at RM28.20 in the morning session) is now trading at a PER of 15.2x based on last 4 quarters' EPS of RM1.85. Its dividend yield is quite decent at 4.1%.

Technical Outlook

UTDPLT is in an uptrend with support from its 10-month SMA line at RM27.00. That support also coincides with the support from the horizontal line.


Chart 1: UTDPLT's monthly chart as at July 31, 2017 (Source: ShareInvestor.com)
 


Chart 1: UTDPLT's monthly chart as at July 31, 2017 (Source: ShareInvestor.com)

Conclusion

Based on good financial performance, fair valuation & positive technical outlook, UTDPLT could be a good stock for long-term investment.

Note:

I hereby confirm that I do not have any direct interest in the security or securities mentioned in this post. However, I could have an indirect interest in the security or securities mentioned as some of my clients may have an interest in the acquisition or disposal of the aforementioned security or securities. As investor, you should fully research any security before making an investment decision.

Perstim: Earnings Dropped Sharply


Results Update

For QE30/6/2017, Pertima's net profit dropped 82% q-o-q or 76% y-o-y to RM2.8 million while revenue rose 2% q-o-q or 35% y-o-y to RM237 million. Revenue rose q-o-q due to higher selling price despite lower sales volume. Profit dropped q-o-q due to lower profit margin coupled with lower sales volume. Profit margin declined as the Group was not able to pass through the production cost hike to customer in order to maintain price competitiveness for the period under review.


Table: Perstim's last 8 quarterly P&L


Graph: Perstim's last 52 quarters' P&L
 
Future Prospects

The comment in the accounts highlighted the "operating environment to remain challenging and competitive due to greater presence of imports from overseas, in addition to the volatility of Ringgit Malaysia against the United States Dollar". This coupled with the heightened competition - where it is unable to pass through the production cost hike to customer - means that the Group may go thru a period of lower profit.

Tin Prices Trend

Tin prices are at 18-month high. If this price regime persists, Perstim's profit may remain weak going forward.

Chart 1: Tin's monthy chart as at July 25, 2017 (Source: Infomine)

Valuation

Perstim (closed at RM8.10 yesterday) is now trading at a trailing PER of 17 times (based on last 4 quarters' EPS of 46.5 sen). With a dividend payout of 40 sen, Perstim's DY is at an attractive 4.9%. However the dividend payout may not be sustainable if the Group's profit doesn't rebound back quickly.

Technical Outlook

Perstim is in a long-term uptrend line with support at the 10-month SMA line of RM7.50. 


Chart 2: Perstim's monthly chart as at July 31, 2017 (Source: ShareInvestor.com)  

Conclusion

Based on challenging operating environment, weaker financial performance & demanding valuation, I believe it is a good idea to take some profit on Perstim.

Note:

I hereby confirm that I do not have any direct interest in the security or securities mentioned in this post. However, I could have an indirect interest in the security or securities mentioned as some of my clients may have an interest in the acquisition or disposal of the aforementioned security or securities. As investor, you should fully research any security before making an investment decision.

Thursday, July 27, 2017

Pantech: Earning Imrpoved Further


Result Update

For QE31//5/2017, Pantech's net profit rose 24% q-o-q or 73% y-o-y to RM14 million while its revenue was mixed - down 1% q-o-q but up 22% y-o-y - to RM152 million. Net profit rose due to higher profit margin as a result of better product mix achieved.


Table: Pantech's last 8 quarterly results


Graph: Pantech's last 41 quarterly results

Valuation

Pantech (closed at RM0.635 yesterday) is now trading at a PE of 13 times (based on last 4 quarters' EPS of 4.99 sen). Dividend yield is decent at 3.4%. At these multiples, Pantech is priced fairly for a stock in the O&G sector where recovery is still a work in progress.

Technical Outlook

Pantech's monthly chart shows that the stock is on a recovery path.


Chart 1: Pantech's monthly chart as at July 26, 2017 (Source: Shareinvestor.com)

Its immediate resistance is the May high of RM0.66 & immediate support is its uptrend line at RM0.61.

 
Chart 2: Pantech's daily chart as at July 26, 2017 (Source: Shareinvestor.com)
 
Conclusion

Based satisfactory financial performance, fair valuation & positive technical outlook, Pantech is a good stock for long-term investment.

Note:

I hereby confirm that I do not have any direct interest in the security or securities mentioned in this post. However, I could have an indirect interest in the security or securities mentioned as some of my clients may have an interest in the acquisition or disposal of the aforementioned security or securities. As investor, you should fully research any security before making an investment decision.

Wednesday, July 26, 2017

Kenanga To Host A Workshop On Art Trading Methodolgy

Kenanga has organized a workshop entitled "Art Trading Methodology: Bottom Fishing Techniques at Right Timing".


In ART Trading Methodology, traders are taught to look for specific trade setups, and to trade them regardless of the market conditions. That means traders can trade every single day whether the market is volatile or quiet, or the market is trending or ranging.

Agenda



Course Outline

C1. Identify Resistance
C2. Identify Support
C3. Bottom Fishing@ Right Timing: Buy on Dips Strategies
C4. Profit Taking@ Right Timing: Sell on Rally Strategies

Trainer Profile

Dr Thiti Tharasuk
Founder of "ART Trading Methodology"

Date & Time

Aug 12, 2017 (Saturday), 9:30am to 12:30pm

Venue

Kenanga Training Centre,
Level 17, Kenanga Tower,
237, Jalan Tun Razak
50 400 Kuala Lumpur

Restriction & Fee Payable

The workshop is free for clients of Kenanga with 6 months or more trading history. Clients who do not meet the requirement can still attend on payment of a small fee of RM120. Registration is compulsory.

For more detail, go here.

Gtronic: Earnings Continued To Rise

Result Update

For QE30/6/2017, Gtronic's net profit rose 51% q-o-q or 8% y-o-y to RM7.1 million while revenue rose 26% q-o-q or 10% y-o-y to RM63 million. Revenue & profits rose q-o-q due to higher volume loadings and commencement of mass production of new products from certain customers in the Group.


Table: Gtronic's last 8 quarterly results


Chart: Gtronic's last 46 quarterly results

Valuation 

Gtronic (closed at RM6.17 yesterday) is now trading at a PE of 64 times (based on last 4 quarters' EPS of 9.66 sen). At this elevated PER, Gtronic is priced to perfection. Any slightest shortfall in earnings will lead to huge disappointment and punishing price adjustment.

Technical Outlook

Who would have thought Gtronic could have such a strong rally over the past 12 months. From the low of RM2.60 in August 2016, Gtronic is ast approaching the January 2016 high of RM6.50.


Chart 1: Gtronic's monthly chart as at July 25, 2017 (Source: Shareinvestor.com)

A closer look at the daily chart reveals bearish divergence in the MACD as well as weakening of the uptrend momentum (with a drop-off in ADX). While indicators can alert us to be careful, there is still no breakdown in term of price action.


Chart 2: Gtronic's daily chart as at July 25, 2017 (Source: Shareinvestor.com)

However, when you compared the price chart with the earnings track record, you will see that there is a huge difference in Gtronic's profits recorded in 2016 & that's recorded today. That's why I am very wary of the super-bullish report for this stock.


Chart 3: Gtronic's monthly chart as at July 25, 2017 & its quarterly profits track record

Conclusion

Based on improving financial performance, Gtronic can be a good stock for long-term investment. However, its demanding valuation & the sharp rebound may lead to a correction in the near-term. Thus I am maintaining my rating of SELLING INTO STRENGTH to take profit if you have gotten into the stock in 2016 as I had recommended (here).

Note:

I hereby confirm that I do not have any direct interest in the security or securities mentioned in this post. However, I could have an indirect interest in the security or securities mentioned as some of my clients may have an interest in the acquisition or disposal of the aforementioned security or securities. As investor, you should fully research any security before making an investment decision.

Tuesday, July 25, 2017

Kenanga To Hold KenTrade Trading Challenge III

Kenanga will be hosting the third iteration of its popular trading game known as KenTrade Trading Challenge. The first game was held in 2015, and it drew in 15,000 participants. This year, Kenanga expects higher number of participants as investors become more tech-savvy, and are eager to use the opportunity to put into practice the investment techniques and lessons that they have learned. For more detail, go here.



I urge everyone who are keen in investing, to try out the game. You do not have to be a trader to know that there are many disciplines in trading that are equally applicable to investing. In fact, the adoption of these disciplines - money management, timing entry & exit and position sizing - could make for more successful medium-term investing. And, if you do well in the game, the rewards are very attractive.



Nexttrade will support gamers with trading ideas based on trend following, pattern breakout and range breakout. The challenge will begin on July 31. If you want to know how to take part, go here.

Presbhd: Game Changer Can Wait

In August last year, I posted a trading BUY call for Presbhd. At that point of time, Presbhd has tendered for a contract to upgrade our immigration system. Last week, Presbhd has announced that its 70%-owned subsidiary, Prestariang Services Sdn Bhd has finally secured the contract (here). The cost of developing the system is about RM1 billion and the work will take about 3 years. After that, it's entitled to collect RM294.7 million per annum for the next 12 years.

Market reaction to this game-changer for Presbhd was a big disappointment. Instead of a sharp price rally, we have a price drop! This obviously shows that investors are lukewarm about any project that involves large sum of investment and long gestation period. Then again, one should not be too surprised by the price drop if you look at the occasional bouts of selling over the past 2 years. However, if you draw a line connecting the recent bottoms, the stock should have support at RM1.85-1.90. If Presbhd can rebound back and stay above its long-term uptrend line at RM2.00, the technical outlook would still be positive. (As at 2.45pm, Presbhd was trading at RM1.95.)

Based on the project secured, I believe Presbhd is a good stock to consider for long-term investment.


Chart 1: Presbhd's weekly chart as at July 24, 2017 (Source: ShareInvestor.com)


Chart 2: Presbhd's monthly chart as at July 24, 2017 (Source: ShareInvestor.com)

Note:

I hereby confirm that I do not have any direct interest in the security or securities mentioned in this post. However, I could have an indirect interest in the security or securities mentioned as some of my clients may have an interest in the acquisition or disposal of the aforementioned security or securities. As investor, you should fully research any security before making an investment decision.

Tuesday, July 18, 2017

Padini: Possible Bullish Breakout

Padini may have a bullish breakout at RM3.65. Its immediate target could be RM4.00. For those who are keen to trade this breakout, I would suggest that you stagger your entry by buying in 2-4 tranches between RM3.70-3.80. A pullback to RM3.70 is possible but a drop below the breakout level of RM3.65 should be a warning that the play is over. (Note: Padini is at RM3.75 as ta 4.40pm.)


Chart: Padini's daily chart as at July 18, 2017_4.30pm (Source: Shareinvestor.com)

IBhd: Earnings Maintained But Unbilled Sales Dropped Further

Result Update

For QE30/6/2017, IBhd's net profit rose 6% q-o-q or 34% y-o-y to RM19.6 million while revenue rose 24% q-o-q or 47% y-o-y to RM128 million. IBhd's revenue and profit before tax rose q-o-q due to "the continuous growth of the Property Development segment".


Table: IBhd's last 8 quarterly P&L


Graph 1: IBhd's last 20 quarterly P&L

The company was upbeat about its future prospects due to the success of the Hill10 Residence @ i-City (previously named Converse @ i-City), a 204 exclusive luxury residences located above the DoubleTree by Hilton @ i-City Shah Alam, which has attained a current take-up rate of 70% after its launch in April. Nevertheless we can see that unbilled sales has been on the decline since June 2016. In term of quarters of sales, unbilled sales peaked in September 2015 at 12 quarters of sales and it has since declined to less than 3 quarters of sales in June 2017.
 

Graph 2: IBhd's unbilled Sales for last 20 quarters
 
Valuation

I-Bhd (traded at RM0.615 this morning) has a trailing PER of 8.7x (based on last 4 quarters' EPS of 7.04 sen). At this PER, I-Bhd is deemed fairly valued.

Technical Outlook

IBhd's gradual uptrend seems to have ended with the decline last week. For now, IBhd is likely to move sideways between RM0.56 & RM0.60.


Chart 1: I-Bhd's weekly chart as at Jul 17, 2017 (Source: Shareinvestor.com)


Chart 2: I-Bhd's monthly chart as at Jul 17, 2017 (Source: Shareinvestor.com)

Conclusion

Based on good financial performance and fair valuation, I assign a rating of HOLD for IBhd. Its share price performance is likely to be unexciting for the next few quarters due to mildly negative technical outlook and weaker revenue.

Note:

I hereby confirm that I do not have any direct interest in the security or securities mentioned in this post. However, I could have an indirect interest in the security or securities mentioned as some of my clients may have an interest in the acquisition or disposal of the aforementioned security or securities. As investor, you should fully research any security before making an investment decision.