The question of whether the market has now satisfied the conditions laid down in my earlier post (here) to call the beginning of a market's next upleg must be examined again. To wit:
The set-up for both market uptrends in November 1998 (the numbers are in blue) and March 2009 (see the numbers in green) are:
- Index rose above both 10 & 20-week SMA lines
- MACD crossed above the MACD signal line
- Stochastic RSI was above 80 (or, in oversold territory)
- +DMI crossed above -DMI and continued to diverge
Chart 4: FBMKLCI's daily chart for 1997-1999, 2007-2009 and 2018-2020 (Jun 3)
Based on the above, I believe the next upleg in the market has begun. Some may still want the main indices (FBMKLCI and FBMEMAS) to break above their respective immediate downtrend lines before pulling the trigger. It is still good to play it safe and by buying into the laggards (say, Maybank over PBBank) and doing so progressively. Good luck.