Happy Chinese New Year

I like to wish all my Chinese readers a HAPPY & PROSPEROUS NEW YEAR.


 


Source:  www.123rf.com

MNCs- time to take some profit?

You will see below a few charts for blue chip MNC stocks that had done very well in the past few years. The charts are ranged according to their technical outlook; from bullish to bearish. These are my observations:

1. The first 3 charts (DKSH, Nestle & Carlsbg) don't tell us much. They are still in an uptrend.
2. The 3rd chart (Carlsbg) shows a stock that is still in an uptrend line but it had declined quite a lot from the recent high. Notice how the drop accelerated after it broke the 50-w EMA line.
3. The same thing happened to GAB after it broke the 50-w EMA line. GAB has broken below its uptrend line.
4. The following 2 charts (JTinter & Harison) broke the 50-w EMA line and dropped sharply before recovering.
5. Dlady (the next chart) did not break the 50-w EMA line and enters into a mild consolidation phase.
6. The last 2 charts (PPB & Shell) shows that not all breakdown would be followed by swift recovery.

So, watch out for the breaking of the 50-w EMA line. However, since the market has gone up so much in the past few years, a better approach would be to take some profit. Why give away your profit by waiting for a drop that would trigger a sell?!


Chart 1: DKSH's weekly chart as at Jan 29, 2014 (Source: Tradesignum)


Chart 2: Nestle's weekly chart as at Jan 29, 2014 (Source: Tradesignum)


Chart 3: Carlsbg's weekly chart as at Jan 29, 2014 (Source: Tradesignum)



Chart 4: GAB's weekly chart as at Jan 29, 2014 (Source: Tradesignum)





Chart 5: JTinter's weekly chart as at Jan 29, 2014 (Source: Tradesignum)


Chart 6: Harison's weekly chart as at Jan 29, 2014 (Source: Tradesignum)


Chart 6: DLady's weekly chart as at Jan 29, 2014 (Source: Tradesignum)


Chart 7: PPB's weekly chart as at Jan 29, 2014 (Source: Tradesignum)


Chart 8: Shell's weekly chart as at Jan 29, 2014 (Source: Tradesignum)

Note: 
In addition to the disclaimer in the preamble to my blog, I hereby confirm that I do not have any relevant interest in, or any interest in the acquisition or disposal of, DKSH, Nestle, Carlsbg, GAB, JTinter, Harison, PPB & Shell.

PWRoot- dragged lower by impairment loss

Results Update

For QE30/11/2013, PWRoot's net profit dropped 9.5% q-o-q to RM8.7 million on the back of a 7%-increase in revenue to RM76 million. Compared to the same quarter last year, net profit was 2% higher while revenue was 8% higher. Revenue increased q-o-q due to increased local demand. The bottom-line dropped q-o-q due to impairment loss on trade receivables of RM2.9 mil from Egypt. Excluding the impairment loss (and adjusted for tax), PWRoot's net profit could be higher by 13% q-o-q or 28% y-o-y to RM10.8 million.


Table: PWRoot's last 8 quarterly results


Chart 1: PWRoot's last 27 quarterly results

Valuation

PWRoot (closed at RM2.15 yesterday) is now trading at a PE of 17 times (based on last 4 quarters' EPS of  12.40 sen). At this PE multiple, PWRoot is deemed fully valued.

Technical outlook

PWRoot has broken above its medium-term downtrend line, RR at RM2.10 in early part of this month. Presently, PWRoot has drifted lower and may find support at the same downtrend line (now acting as a support). Below that, it may also find support at the psychological RM2.00 mark. However, if the stock had corrected sufficiently, it may renew its upleg and test the Jun 2013 high at RM2.33.


 
Chart 2: PWRoot's daily chart as at Jan 29, 2014 (Source: Tradesignum)


Chart 3: PWRoot's weekly chart as at Jan 29, 2014 (Source: Tradesignum)

Conclusion

Based on good financial performance (albeit a significant impairment loss) & mildly positive technical outlook, PWRoot remains a good stock for long-term investment. However, its valuation is no longer cheap and it deserves a rating of a HOLD only.

Note: 
In addition to the disclaimer in the preamble to my blog, I hereby confirm that I do not have any relevant interest in, or any interest in the acquisition or disposal of, PWRoot.

KNM- a reversal may be on the card!

On January 27, KNM announced a Par Value Reduction for its ordinary shares (here). The rationale given for the proposed exercise is that "the closing price of KNM Share was RM0.565, which is at a discount of 43.5% to the existing par value of RM1.00 each in KNM share. The current market price of KNM shares is therefore not conducive for KNM to embark on any fund raising exercise and/or corporate exercises involving issuance of new shares. Accordingly, the Proposed Par Value Reduction will provide the Company with greater flexibility to raise funds and to implement future corporate proposals which entail the issuance of new shares."

Thus, the proposal could be a prelude to a share Rights Issue. This may have excited the market as any potential acquisition in the Oil & Gas sector has led to sharp rise in the share price. Alternatively, the market expects the share price to rise to a level that would facilitate the issuance of the new shares.

Looking at the weekly chart, it looks like KNM is poised for a rally. The trigger for the rally would be an upside breakout above the RM0.58. [Note: KNM is now trading at RM0.61 as at 10:00am.]


Chart 1: KNM's weekly chart as at Jan 26, 2014 (Source: Tradesignum)

An angle would be given by the daily chart below.


Chart 2: KNM's daily chart as at Jan 26, 2014 (Source: Tradesignum)

Based on technical consideration only, KNM could be a possible trading BUY. Possible target for the immediate rally is RM0.80. Given the current market uncertainty, you have to exercise careful discretion in all your trading.

Note:
In addition to the disclaimer in the preamble to my blog, I hereby confirm that I do not have any relevant interest in, or any interest in the acquisition or disposal of, KNM.

Market Outlook as at January 27, 2014

A report in The Globe & Mail read:

The selloff (in the emerging market) underscores fears that the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision to taper its bond purchases may take a heavy toll on the developing world, as U.S. interest rates begin the long climb back to normal levels. With emerging nations looking more risky by the day, higher U.S. rates will act as a magnet for global capital. (here)

So, are we seeing another round of emerging market selloff due to Fed's tapering?

If there is something we learned from the Euro crisis of 2011 is that when the crisis comes around again, the reactions of the players tend to be more subdued. Yes, they would run for cover but they would quickly jump back into the market because they expect the market to come back and the authority to step in to stop the downward spiral. So if we are another "tapering" selloff, then we can expect the selloff to be well-absorbed and a recovery to kick in after a week or two. Similarly, if the selloff is part & parcel of the risk-off trades, then we can take comfort that they are self-correcting in nature and the markets will come back.

If we look at the US markets, we can see that the current rally dates back to 2009. This rally is 5 years old. The previous rally that lasted 5 years was the 2003-2007 rally. We may not be at the verge of a 2008 selloff but we are sitting on plenty of profit. More than that, the market is too one-sided. We learned that if the last bull has gotten into the market, then the bears will have their days. Thus, the sharp 318-point drop in DJIA last Friday shouldn't be a surprise.

 
Chart 1: DJIA's monthly chart from 1900-November 2013 (Source: Stockcharts.com)

 
Chart 2: DJIA's weekly chart as at Jan 24, 2014 (Source: Stockcharts.com)

Meanwhile, in Malaysia we are seeing weakness in our RM. The USD-RM is pressing against the 3.35 mark. Can this level hold up? A breakout above this level would add to the inflationary pressure that is taking a life of its own.


Chart 3: USD-RM's weekly chart as at Jan 24, 2014 (Source: Yahoo Finance)

The FBMKLCI broke below the psychological 1800 mark this morning. All is not lost. The long-term uptrend line support is 1770. However, it is hard to be bullish when global equities are in turmoil.


Chart 4; FBMKLCI's weekly chart as at Jan 24, 2014 (Source:Interachart,com)

I hope some stability will return to the equity & currency market soon. It is hard to welcome the lunar new year when the news is blanketed by negative reports.

Spritzr- poorer results due to higher costs

Result Update

For QE30/11/2013, Spritzr's net profit dropped 36% q-o-q & 34% y-o-y to RM3.4 million while revenue dropped 1% q-o-q but rose 18% y-o-y to RM55 million. The drop in the bottom-line was "attributed mainly to the higher operating costs especially on transportation, salary and payroll related expenses, advertising and promotional expenses. The weak Malaysian Currency had caused an increase in the prices of PET resin consumed".


Table: Spritzr's last 8 quarterly results


Chart 1: Spritzr's last 30 quarterly results

Valuation

Spritzr (closed at RM1.70 last Friday) is now trading at a PE of 11.4 times (based on last 4 quarters' EPS of 14.85 sen). At this PE multiple, Spritzr is still deemed relatively attractive for a consumer stock.

Technical Outlook

Spritzr's uptrend line may have run up against a possible double top at RM1.90. With indicators hooking down, Spritzr is set to go into a consolidation. I see its immediate support at RM1.50.


Chart 2: Spritzr's weekly chart as at Jan 24, 2014 (Source: Tradesignum)
 
Conclusion

Despite fairly attractive valuation for a consumer stock, Spritzr is likely to underperform for the next few months due to poorer financial performance & mildly bearish technical outlook. The stock is either a HOLD (ride out the near-term weakness) or a TRADING SELL (sell and buy back later). The choice is yours.

Note: 
In addition to the disclaimer in the preamble to my blog, I hereby confirm that I do not have any relevant interest in, or any interest in the acquisition or disposal of, Spritzr.

XDL - A costly free lunch!

XDL has just completed a Rights Issue that comes with free warrant and bonus issue. To wit:

Renounceable rights issue of up to 322,665,266 new ordinary shares of USD0.10 each in XDL (“XDL shares”) (“rights shares”) at an issue price of RM0.35 per rights share, together with up to 241,998,950 free detachable warrants in XDL (“warrants 2014”) and an attached bonus issue of up to 241,998,950 new XDL shares (“bonus shares”) to be credited as fully paid-up at par, on the basis of four (4) rights shares together with three (3) free warrants 2014 and three (3) bonus shares for every twelve (12) existing XDL shares held at 5p.m. on 23 December 2013 (Ex Date: 19 December 2013).

On the last cum date, XDL closed at RM0.385. The calculation of the theoretical ex-right value is as follows:

(initial shares held x closing price) + (RI shares x subscription price) + (warrants x exercise price)

initial shares held + RI shares subscribed + bonus shares granted + warrants

Based on this formula, the theoretical ex-right value would be RM0.3213. Instead of trading at that price, the stock rallied to an intraday high of RM0.665 on January 21, 2014.

Yesterday, the stock tumbled. Today it falls further. At the time of writing this post, XDL is trading at RM0.305. The reason for the drop: New shares will be quoted on January 27 and increasing the number of shares issued by 58%. Would the share price stabilize at the theoretical ex-right value would be RM0.3213? It is highly unlikely as a falling stock tends to overshoot on the downside. This proves that there is no such thing as a free lunch.


Chart 1: XDL's daily chart as at Jan 22, 2014 (Source: Tradesignum)
 

Chart 2: XDL's weekly chart as at Jan 22, 2014 (Source: Tradesignum)

Note:
In addition to the disclaimer in the preamble to my blog, I hereby confirm that I do not have any relevant interest in, or any interest in the acquisition or disposal of, HIL.

HIL- getting ready for next upleg?

On its website, you will see this bold statement:

With over 30 years experience in the plastic injection industry, Hil Industries Berhad (HIL) enjoys the reputation of being a leading custom injection moulder of engineering plastics in South East Asia. 

A check on its financials would immediately give you a different impression. For FY2012, HIL reported a net loss after tax of RM3.1 million on a revenue of RM80 million. The previous year, it made a small net profit of RM483k on a revenue of RM106 million. For 9-month ended 30/9/2013, HIL reported a net profit of RM676k on a revenue of RM58 million.

Notwithstanding the unimpressive financial performance, HIL's technical outlook - which has turned mildly bullish in June last year after the upside breakout of the long-term downtrend line (RR) - may be poised to be even more bullish. The stock has broken above the horizontal line at RM0.50 today. This could be the start of it next upleg. The next resistance will be at RM0.62.

Based on technical breakout only, the stock looks like a trading BUY.


Chart: HIL's weekly chart as at Jan 22, 2014 (Source: Tradesignum)
Note:
In addition to the disclaimer in the preamble to my blog, I hereby confirm that I do not have any relevant interest in, or any interest in the acquisition or disposal of, HIL.

Huayang- demand for affordable homes is still strong!

Results Update

For QE31/12/2013, Huayang's net profit increased 60% q-o-q but dropped marginally by 1% y-o-y to RM19.7 million while revenue increased by 28% q-o-q & 24% y-o-y to RM130 million. Net profit dropped marginally y-o-y due to higher sales & marketing expenses- as a result of more launches. Revenue increased due to more launches. The rebound in revenue shows that Huayang is not affected by recent slowdown in sales as its products are aimed at the mass market where demand is still strong. Despite the speculative curbs imposed by government, genuine buyers will not be deterred.


Table: Huayang's last 8 quarterly results


Chart 1: Huayang's last 22 quarterly results 

Valuation

Huayang (at RM1.99 yesterday) is trading at a PE of 8.6 times (based on last 4 quarters' EPS of 23.3 sen). At this PE, Huayang is still deemed fairly valued.

Technical Outlook

Huayang is still in an uptrend. If we used the 50-week EMA line as the uptrend line, then the support is at RM1.92.


Chart 2: Huayang's weekly chart as at Jan 22, 2014 (Source: Tradesignum)
 
Conclusion

Based on recovery in financial performance, attractive valuation & positive technical outlook, the rating for this stock is revised from SELL INTO STRENGTH to BUY.

Note: 
In addition to the disclaimer in the preamble to my blog, I hereby confirm that I do not have any relevant interest in, or any interest in the acquisition or disposal of, Huayang.

Zhulian- when the roof collapsed!

Result Update

For QE30/11/2013, Zhulian's net profit plunged by 65% q-o-q & 56% y-o-y to RM13.7 million while revenue dropped by 37% q-o-q & 33% y-o-y to RM78 million. The drop in the top-line was attributed to lower overseas market demand during the fourth quarter. This and the drop in the share of profit of equity accounted investee led to an even greater q-o-q drop in the bottom-line.

There was no comment in the notes to the accounts whether this drop was exceptional or one-off in nature. A report in the Star newspaper was equally uninformative (here). Instead there was a comment that gave me a double-take, where the company attributed "the fall in full year earnings, lower by RM33.37mil, to weak local demand". So the poorer financial result was due to lower demand in the domestic market as well as overseas markets???

This reminds me of the drop in the financial performance of Haio in 2010 (here). I doubt Zhulian will return to its heyday any time soon.


Table: Zhulian's last 8 quarterly results


Chart 1: Zhulian's last 29 quarterly results 

Valuation

Zhulian (closed at RM4.61 today) is now trading a PE of 17.5 times (based on last 4 quarters of 26.3 sen). After the sharp plunge in bottom-line, this stock's PE multiple would collapse to 10-12 times. If the EPS for the 4Q2013 of 2.99 sen (say 3 sen) would be the 'normal' earning going forward, then its annualized EPS would be 12 sen. If we valued the stock at PE of 12 times, the stock would be worth RM1.44.

Technical Outlook

Zhulian is still in an uptrend but not for long.


Chart 2: Zhulian's weekly chart as at Jan 22, 2014 (Source: quickcharts)

Conclusion

Based on the terrible results, Zhulian is rated a STRONG SELL.

Note: 
In addition to the disclaimer in the preamble to my blog, I hereby confirm that I do not have any relevant interest in, or any interest in the acquisition or disposal of, Zhulian.

SILKHLD- poised for breakout?

There was a report that SILKHLD has been invited by Petronas to tender for the supply of medium & large offshore supply vessels (OSVs). The business, if materialized, will be undertaken by Jasa Merin (M) Sdn Bhd, the second largest OSVs owner in Malaysia. Petronas is reported to require 20 vessels in the upcoming tender.

In addition, SILKHLD is the owner of the 37-km Kajang SILK Highway, which is a loss-making due to financial charges and amortization. The company reported a net profit of RM4.4 million for FY2013 due to pre-tax profit contribution from the O&G segment of RM41.7 million.

If SILKHLD can surpass the horizontal line RM0.55, the stock could launch into an uptrend which could hit the resistance at RM0.80. Failure to break above this resistance will lead to correction back to RM0.50 & below that, RM0.45. As at 4:15pm, the stock was trading at RM0.545. Let's wait & see.


Chart 1: SILKHLD's weekly chart as at Jan 21, 2014 (Source: Tradesignum)


Chart 2: SILKHLD's monthly chart as at Jan 21, 2014 (Source: Yahoo Finance)

Note:
In addition to the disclaimer in the preamble to my blog, I hereby confirm that I do not have any relevant interest in, or any interest in the acquisition or disposal of, SILKHLD.

SAB- just broke above a strong resistance

Southern Acids Bhd ('SAB') is involved in oleo-chemicals, healthcare, plantations & milling, drybulk warehousing & conveyor. It is a profitable company with rising top-line & bottom-line.



Yesterday, SAB broke above its strong horizontal resistance at RM3.00. As the breakout is on thin volume, sustainability is an issue. Is this a real deal or is it a bull trap? If the rally can sustain, a rough projection would put the target at RM4.00.

Based on technical breakout, this stock may be a trading BUY.


Chart: SAB's weekly chart as at Jan 21, 2014 (Source: Tradesignum) 

Note:
In addition to the disclaimer in the preamble to my blog, I hereby confirm that I do not have any relevant interest in, or any interest in the acquisition or disposal of, SAB.

TAS- the results starting to come in

Background
TAS Offshore Bhd ('TAS') is a small company involved in shipbuilding & ship repair. Its main markets are Malaysia, Singapore & United Arab Emirates.


Source: Company's website

Recent Financial Result

For QE30/11/2013, TAS's revenue increased 65% q-o-q or 60% y-o-y to RM49 million while net profit was mixed; down 15% q-o-q but rose 200% y-o-y to RM7.3 million. The q-o-q increase in revenue was due to sale of 1 unit of tug boat while net profit was lower as the immediate preceding quarter's results had been bumped higher by a reversal of impairment loss of RM3.3 million.


Table 1: TAS's last 8 quarterly results

From the chart below, we can see that TAS's bottom-line & top-line have been rising over the past 2 years. The same goes for its profit margin.


Chart 1: TAS's last 31 quarterly results 

Financial Position


TAS's financial position as at 30/11/2013 is deemed satisfactory with current ratio at 2.4 times and gearing ratio at 0.15 time only.

Valuation

TAS (closed at RM1.24 yesterday) is now trading at a current PE of 9 times (based on annualized EPS of 13.7 sen). At this PER multiple, the stock is deemed fully valued.

Technical Outlook

TAS broke above its downtrend line at RM0.40 in late 2012 (here). It has surpassed its 2009 high of RM0.85.


Chart 2: TAS's weekly chart as at Jan 20, 2014 (Source: Tradesignum)

Conclusion

Based on improving financial performance and positive technical outlook, TAS could be a good stock for long-term investment. I would rate it a HOLD for now after its strong price run-up.

Note:
In addition to the disclaimer in the preamble to my blog, I hereby confirm that I do not have any relevant interest in, or any interest in the acquisition or disposal of, TAS.

Wellcal- time for profit-taking

Technical Outlook

Wellcal has risen about 100% over the past 10 months. While it is still in an uptrend, we have to be a bit careful with this stock. Its MACD, RSI & ADX indicators have started to hook down. These are signs that the stock is likely to consolidate in the near term.


Chart 1: Wellcal's weekly chart as at Jan 16, 2014 (Source: Tradesignum)

Results Update

For QE30/9/2013, Wellcal's net profit increased by14% q-o- & 31% y-o-y to RM7.7 million while revenue dropped by 5% q-o-q & 11% y-o-y to RM33.7 million. Bottom-line improved due to lower cost of raw material, favorable exchange rate & higher sales of more profitable products.


Table: Wellcal's last 8 quarterly results


Chart 1: Wellcal's last 25 quarterly results

Valuation

Wellcal (closed at RM3.53 on Jan 16, 2014) is trading at a PE of 19 times (based on last 4 quarters' EPS of 18.6 sen). The stock is trading near its fully value.

Conclusion

Despite good financial performance and still-positive technical outlook, Wellcal is trading at demanding valuation. Based on this, I think it is time to take profit on the stock.

Note:
In addition to the disclaimer in the preamble to my blog, I hereby confirm that I do not have any relevant interest in, or any interest in the acquisition or disposal of, Wellcal.

Gamuda- dropped to strong support

Gamuda took a dive this morning. It hit an intra-day low of RM4.10. In August, Gamuda also had a sharp dive in August to an intra-day low of RM4.12. This level at RM4.10-4.20 is a support level. If it is not violated, the stock should rebound from here.


Chart 1: Gamuda's daily chart as at Jan 15, 2014 (Source: Tradesignum)

From the weekly chart, we can see that Gamuda is in a long-term uptrend line with support at RM4.00.


Chart 2: Gamuda's weekly chart as at Jan 15, 2014 (Source: Tradesignum)

From my observation, Gamuda is a leading barometer of our market. If Gamuda recovers after a long sell-off, then the market is ready for recovery. But, if Gamuda falters, you can expect the market to follow suit. Let's see how well Gamuda can stay above the RM4.10-4.20 market. If not, let's hope it can stay above the long-term uptrend line at RM4.00.

I have been posting sporadically because I am cautious about the market outlook. The various measures announced by the government to curb property speculation; to withdraw various subsidies; plus the implementation of GST in 2015 have significant impact consumer sentiment. Once the sentiment is affected, consumer spending would decline and stock market would follow suit. I think the market is at an inflection point and could correct for the next few weeks. FBMKLCI may test the 1800 psychological support. The next support would be at 1760-1770. Let's hope we can stay above the 1800 mark.


Chart 3: FBMKLCI's daily chart as at Jan 15, 2014 (Source: Tradesignum)

Note:
In addition to the disclaimer in the preamble to my blog, I hereby confirm that I do not have any relevant interest in, or any interest in the acquisition or disposal of, Gamuda.

Luxchem may have a bullish breakout

Luxchem has surpassed it intermediate downtrend line at RM1.35-1.38. It has even surpassed the intraday high of RM1.44 recorded on August 1, 2012 before retreating back to RM1.40. If it can recruit further buying support, its next upleg may begin.At this juncture, it is important that it stays above the RM1.40 mark.

For 9-month ended 30//9/2013, Luxchem reported a lower net profit was RM14 million (cf RM16 million previously) while its revenue increased from RM375 million to RM396 million. Its annualized EPS for FY2013 is about 14 sen. Thus the stock is fully valued with its PER at about 10x.

Based on technical breakout only, Luxchem could be a trading BUY. Potential target is RM1.60.


Chart: Luxchem's weekly chart as at Jan 10, 2014 (Source: Tradesignum)

Note:
In addition to the disclaimer in the preamble to my blog, I hereby confirm that I do not have any relevant interest in, or any interest in the acquisition or disposal of, Luxchem.

SBCCCorp may have a bullish breakout

SBCCorp has just surpassed its July 2013 high of RM1.40. As at 9:30am, SBCCorp was trading at RM1.41-1.42. If this stock can recruit further buying support, its next upleg may begin. the last 2 breakouts led to 60-70% gain. If the same were to happen now, the stock may hit a high of RM2.24-2.38.

As at 30//9/2013, SBCCorp's NTA stood at RM3.69 p.s. Its 1H2014 net profit was RM15 million while its revenue was RM61 million. Its annualized EPS was 36 sen. For more, go here. Thus its current PER & PBV is about 4x and 0.4x respectively. As such, SBBCorp is deemed fairly attractive, albeit being a thinly traded stock.

Based on attractive valuation & technical breakout, SBCCorp could be a trading BUY.


Chart: SBCCorp's weekly chart as at Jan 10, 2014 (Source: Tradesignum)

Note:
In addition to the disclaimer in the preamble to my blog, I hereby confirm that I do not have any relevant interest in, or any interest in the acquisition or disposal of, SBCCorp.

MMC- upleg should pick up pace!

MMC broke above its strong horizontal cum psychological  resistance at RM3.00 today. With this, the stock could potentially retest its 2010 high at RM3.20 (or RM3.35). The breakout may be prompted by fundamental development as mentioned earlier. (Note: As at 12.25pm, MMC is trading at 3.12-3.13.)

Based on technical breakout, MMC continued to be a good trading BUY.


Chart 1: MMC's daily chart as at Jan 3, 2014 (Source: Tradesignum)


Chart 2: MMC's weekly chart as at Jan 3, 2014 (Source: Tradesignum)

Note:
In addition to the disclaimer in the preamble to my blog, I hereby confirm that I do not have any relevant interest in, or any interest in the acquisition or disposal of, MMC.