Market Outlook as at April 4, 2012

Our FBMKLCI dropped about about 9 points in the afternoon session. I have appended below the 180-minute chart of FBMKLCI. You can see the steady rise of this index since the end of November last year. Within this rally, the index would break above the recent high; consolidate for a few days; and moved to a new high. Of course, our index had also made a new all-time on April 2- a mixed development given the poor market breadth & unconvincing volume.

If we just focus on the current 4 months old rally, we can expect the index to consolidate its recent gain. This corrective move will bring the index to the 10-period SMA line support at 1599-1600 and then to the 20-period SMA line at 1594-1595. This initial correction would last for 1-2 days. Then the index will test the uptrend line (SS) support at 1590-1592 and the 50-period SMA line at 1586-1588. This latter stage correction would last for 3-5 days. If the index can break above the recent high of 1609, this rally will keep to its schedule. We must be prepared that the rally may finally change course, either accelerating (which is not very likely) or reset to a more gradual course (which is more likely in order to accommodate for the laggards). If you agree with my assessment of the probability of the direction of the index, then you should take some precautions in the market.

Chart: FBMKLCI's 180-min chart as at April 4, 2012_4.00pm (Source: Quickcharts)

Airasia broke the important RM3.50 mark

Background

When I posted on Airasia's results for QE30/9/2011 in November last year, I recommended that one should reduce or sell into strength if one has Airasia shares (here). Since then, the stock has been drifting. Last week, Airasia broke below the important RM3.50 support. This is the medium-term uptrend line support (see Chart 1) as well as being the 200-day SMA line support. A quick recovery above the RM3.50 level is critical but six days later, there is still no recovery insight. Can Airasia stage a belated recovery like what it did in September 2011? We will have to wait & see. However, with each passing day, the prospect of a recovery dimmed. The stock may continue to slide to the next support at RM3.00.


Chart 1: Airasia's daily chart as at April 3, 2012_11.00am (Source: Quickcharts)


Chart 2: Airasia's daily chart as at April 2, 2012_plotted on log scale (Source: Tradesignum)

Latest Financial Results

For QE31/12/2011, Airasia's pre-tax profit increased by 211% q-o-q but declined 13% y-o-y to RM338 million while turnover increased by 18% q-o-q or 7% y-o-y to RM1.272 billion. Net profit dropped by 11% q-o-p or 57% y-o-y to RM136 million. This is due to increase in income tax due mainly to higher deferred tax which is in turn due to increased in Deferred Tax Liabilities of RM15.5 million & reduction in Deferred Tax Assets of RM182.6 million.



Table: Airasia's last 8 quarterly results


Chart 3: Airasia's last 23 quarterly results

Other Comments

There are a few reports which are bullish on Airasia due to two main reasons: the unlocking on the value of its investment in Airasia Thailand & Airasia Indonesia which are due to be listed soon and increased consumer spending in South East Asia. I would agree with these two points. However, the stock is affected by two negatives, one of which- the fear that Airasia would suffer from the cross shareholding arrangement exercise involving Tune & Khazanah, the parent of MAS- has probably been priced in. The other is my personal fear that Tony Fernandes's increasing involvement in sporting activities such as his acquisition of a EPL team, QPR and also his participation in a Formula One racing team, Lotus. This level of sporting activities is a serious drain of Tony's precious time & energy which could affect the quality of his decision making in Airasia.

Conclusion

Based on the negative technical outlook, I would maintain my early rating which is to reduce one's position in this stock.

Axiata may be breaking out

Axiata has been testing its horizontal resistance at RM5.20 for more than 1 year. If it can break above this resistance convincingly, the stock may rally to RM6.00. The target is arrived at by at the distance of RM0.80 (between the recent reaction low of RM4.40 & the breakout level of RM5.20) to the breakout level at RM5.20. At 12.00 noon, Axiata was trading at RM5.21. Is this the beginning of the next upleg?

Chart: Axiata's daily chart as at April 2, 2012 (Source: Tradesignum)

For those which like a more aggressive play, you can consider the CWs. I have tabulated the terms & valuation below.

Table: Axiata CWs' main terms & valuation

Please exercise careful discretion in this trade because the market condition is pretty uncertain. We have an upside breakout of the all-time high on thin volume & unconvincing market breath.

Market Outlook as at April 2, 2012

FBMKLCI gained 7.45 points to close at a new all-high of 1603.78 today. Instead of generating euphoria in the market, the new benchmark causes more head scratching. The scoreboard shows gainers outnumbering losers by an unimpressive margin of 400 to 353 & volume traded was only 1.4 billion units.


Chart 1: FBMKLCI's daily chart as at April 2, 2012 (Source: Tradesignum)

From the monthly chart, we can draw a line connecting the peaks for the past 18 years. That line could act as a resistance at 1630.


Chart 2: FBMKLCI's monthly chart as at April 2, 2012 (Source: Tradesignum) 

If we tabulated the main indices of our exchange (FBMKLCI, FBM70, FBMSCAP, FBMACE & FBMFLG), we can see widespread weakness in the market with only strength noted among the blue chips and selected second liners.

 
Table: Main indices on our exchange as at April 2, 2012 (Note: Figures extracted from Quickcharts)

Based on the above, I would advise caution in the market. You may want to check out this interesting article from Clusterstocks about the confusing rally in equity market since September 2011 (here). I love this quote from Nomura's Ian Scott:

Putting things bluntly, either we have another very serious credit event with consequences at least as severe as the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy, or stocks are probably a buy.

If the professionals are at a lost, where would that leave us?

Haio's profit continued to rise

Results Update

Haio has just announced its results for QE31/1/2012. Its net profit increased by 15% q-o-q or 43% y-o-y to RM9.1 million while its turnover increased by 12% q-o-q or 9% y-o-y to RM63 million. The improved performance was attributed to better results from the MLM & wholesale divisions while the retail division suffered a decline in profit contribution due to higher A&P expenses- despite higher sales due to the CNY season.


Table: Haio's last 8 quarterly results


Chart 1: Haio's last 28 quarterly results

Valuation

Haio (at RM2.17) is trading at a current PE of 13 times (based on the last 4 quarters' EPS of 16.64 sen). At this PE multiple, Haio is deemed fully valued.

Technical Outlook

Haio reversed from its long downtrend in October last year. We can see that a higher 'high' and a higher 'low' has formed. Thus, we can say that a medium-term uptrend is in progress.


Chart 2: Haio's weekly chart as at Mar 30, 2012_4.00pm (Source: Quickcharts)

Conclusion

Based on favorable technical outlook, Haio could be a good stock for long-term investment. However, for the stock to rise significantly, its financial results needs to improve further. At its present earning, it is hard to justify a strong rally in the share price.

Genting poised to challenge its downtrend line

Many investors know about the amazing performance of Las Vegas Sand- a stock that declined from a high of USD140 in October 2008 to a low of USD2 in March 2009 but it recovered back to USD60 recently. For a 5-year chart of the movement of LVS, go here. I have presented below the 3-year chart of LVS where you will see that the stock traded in a mild downtrend from November 2010 to January 2012. The stock broke above the downtrend line at USD48 in January & hit the recent high of USD60.


Chart 1: LVS's daily chart as at March 26, 2012 (Source: Stockcharts)

If you look at the chart of Genting, you will see that this stock has also traded in a mild downtrend line since January 2011. Yesterday, Genting nearly tested its downtrend line at RM11.20. If Genting can break above this downtrend line, it may continue its prior uptrend in the same manner as LVS. As such, we should keep a close tab on Genting.


Chart 2: Genting's daily chart as at March 27, 2012_10.00am (Source: Quickcharts)

BIMB to follow in Takaful's footsteps?

BIMB's financial performance has improved considerably for FYE31/12/2011. It reported a net profit of RM235 million on a revenue of RM2.584 billion (here). This compared favorably to the results for its 18-month ended 31/12/2010 where its net profit was RM204 million while revenue was RM2.036 billion (here). BIMB Holdings's main subsidiaries are Bank Islam & Takaful Malaysia (which is listed on Bursa Malaysia).

Recently, the share price of Takaful Malaysia rose steadily after breaking above its horizontal resistance at RM2.40. It is now trading at RM2.70. Takaful is reported to be close to selling a stake in its Indonesian unit to a local partner to expand its distribution network in the republic (here). This could be the reason for the ra-rating of the stock, which was the pioneer in the field of Islamic insurance but alas it was overtaken by many newcomers.

I have lined up the chrats of BIMB & Takaful below. You may note the followings:

1) BIMB's immediate resistance is at the horizontal line at RM2.40; and
2) BIMB's most recent rally was in June 2011, which was preceded by a rally in Takaful in April.

Since Takaful has broken above its horizontal resistance at RM2.40, the question to ask is whether BIMB will follow suit & break above its resistance at RM2.40. As such, it is worth to track the price movement in BIMB closely & buy once it break above the RM2.40.


Chart: BIMB & Takaful's daily chart as at March 27, 2012-10.30am (source: Quickcharts)

MFlour implementing the Rights Issue & Special Dividend

In May 2011, MFlour proposed a wide-ranging corporate exercise involving a 1-to-2 share split and thereafter a 62-sen dividend (before tax of 25%) or 46.5 sen (after tax) for each subdivided share plus a Rights Issue ('RI') of 2 RI shares c/w 1 free warrant & 1 bonus share for every 2 sub-divided shares.I have commented on it in June 2011 (here).

The corporate exercise is being carried out in two stages; the Share Split completed in January (here) and we are now in the final leg which includes the Special Dividend & the Rights Issue (here & here). I have received a few comments & emails on this. these are my thoughts on MFlour:

1. Financial Performance

Due to the increase in raw material costs, MFlour's bottom-line has peaked in QE31/12/2010. Its pre-tax profit has dropped from RM46 million in QE31/12/2010 to the range of RM20 million for the past 3 quarters. Unless the profit margin rebounds back, I do not see a recovery in the share price.


Table: MFlour's last 8 quarterly results



Chart 1: MFlour's last 23 quarterly results

2. Share Price Performance

MFlour is still in a medium-term uptrend line with support at RM3.90-4.00. I believe this support will hold for the near term.


Chart 2: MFlour's daily chart as at Mar 26, 2012 (Source: Quickcharts)

3. Valuation

MFlour (closed at RM4.44 yesterday) is now trading at a PE of 12 times (based on last 4 quarters' EPS pf 38 sen). Based on this PE, MFlour is deemed fairly valued with limited upside.

Conclusion

Based on the above, I would rate MFlour a SELL ON STRENGTH if there is any rally prior to the ex-date of the above Rights Issue cum Special Dividend.

JTiasa proposed a 2-for-1 Bonus Issue

Results Update

JTiasa had just announced its results for QE31/1/2012. Its net profit increased by 11% q-o-q or 14% y-o-y to RM45.5 million while turnover was marginally lower at RM238 million. JTiasa benefited from lower effective tax rate due to no tax effect from the disposal of a subsidiary; thus boosting its profit after tax. It should be noted that its pre-tax profit actually declined by 13% q-o-q or 15% y-o-y to RM50.0 million.


Table: JTiasa's last 8 quarterly results



Chart 1: JTiasa's last 22 quarterly results

Valuation

JTiasa (RM8.39 as at 11.00am) is now trading at a PE of 11.4 times (based on its last 4 quarters ' EPS of 73.82 sen). At this PE multiple, JTiasa is deemed fully valued.

Proposed Capital Exercise

JTiasa has proposed a private placement up to 15% of its share capital and a bonus issue of 2-for-1 thereafter. It has also fixed the ex-date for a dividend-in-specie of 1 Treasury share for every 20 shares owned. These capital exercise is driving up the share price currently.

Technical Outlook

From the monthly chart below, we can see that JTiasa has broken above its long-term downtrend line at RM5.00 in early 2011. It has just broken above its horizontal resistance at RM7.80. It may attempt the next resistance at the horizontal line at RM10.00.


Chart 2: JTiasa's monthly chart as at March 1, 2012 (Source: Tradesignum)

Conclusion

Based on generous capital exercise & positive technical outlook, JTiasa could be a good trading BUY. However, this will be a medium to high risk trade since the stock has rallied quite substantially over the past 3 years. For those who are holding this stock for investment purpose, I would recommend to take profit on this stock.

Harison has just broken below its 40-week SMA line

Earlier, I have noted that Harison had received a letter of demand dated February 15, 2012 from the Custom demanding payment of RM91.75 million for purported unpaid:

1. Import Duty amounting to RM31,452,344.00
2. Excise Duty amounting to RM54,805,709.42
3. Sales Tax amounting to RM5,492,365.50

When it released its latest financial results for QE31/12/2011, Harison merely referred to the above demand & made the following comments:

i) It does not admit being liable to pay RM91,750,418.99.

ii) It is seeking legal advice on the demand.

iii) It has on 27 February 2012 written to the Custom to request for a two months extension to reply to their letter.

The above comment is a standard comment which is to be expected since the matter is still pending. If this claim is not successfully challenged by Harison, it could lead to two things:

a) A full payment would reduce its Shareholders' Funds from RM268.9 million to RM177.2 million or its NTA per share from RM3.93 to RM2.59 (based on its Balance Sheet as at 31/12/2011).

b) Its future sales volume & operating margin will be affected due to higher duties and/or sales tax payable.

In my opinion, it is probable that Harison will not succeed in disputing the claim by the Custom. As such, the prudent approach is to reduce one's position in this stock. From the chart below, we can see that Harison has broken its 40-week SMA line at RM3.22 (which you may consider its uptrend line).

Chart: Harison's daily chart as at March 22, 2012_12.15pm (source: Quickcharts)

Unico may have bullish breakout

Unico has just broken above its recent high of RM1.25. With this breakout, the stock may continue with its prior uptrend. The possible target for the current breakout is RM1.35.


Chart: Unico's daily chart as at March 22, 2012_12.30pm (Source: quickcharts)

Unico is a plantation stock. For 9-month ended 31/12/2011, Unico reported a net profit of RM59.8 million on a revenue of RM231 million. Its annualized EPS for FY2012 is about 9.21 sen. Based on the present price of RM1.28, Unico is trading at a PE of 14 times. At this PE, Unico is deemed fully valued.

Based on the technical breakout, Unico could be a good trading BUY.

Topglov's net profit jumped in QE29/2/2012

Results Update

Topglov had reported its results for QE29/02//2012 recently. Its net profit increased by 70% q-o-q or 110% y-o-y to RM53.5 million while turnover increased by 13% y-o-y but dropped marginally by 1% q-o-q to RM549 million. The improved bottom-line was attributed to due to 18% drop in latexx prices & strengthening of the USD.


Table: Topglov's last 8 quarterly results

Two Main Determining Factors examined

The financial performance of Topglov, like many rubber glove producers, is heavily dependent on favorable movement in Rubber latexx prices & USD. From the two charts - Chart 1 & Chart 2 - below, we can see that USD's near term outlook is mildly bearish but the medium-term outlook is still favorable. Rubber prices (used as a proxy to rubber latexx price) is in a downtrend after it peaked at February 2011. Is this downtrend over? It is hard to tell as both the 5 & 10-month SMA lines are still heading lower. If the USD & runner latexx prices remained at the present level, we can expect continued good results for Topglov. As you can see from Chart 3, Topglov's profit margin has recovered substantially in the last quarter.


Chart 1: USD daily chart as at March 20, 2012 9Source: Stockcharts)



Chart 2: Rubber Monthly Price Chart as at March 19, 2012 (Source: indexmundi.com)



Chart 3: Topglov's profit margin for last 27 quarterly results



Chart 4: Topglov's last 27 quarterly results

Valuation

Topglov (closed at RM4.82 yesterday) is now trading at a PE of 22 times (based on the last 4 quarters' EPS of 22.08 sen). At this PE multiple, Topglov is deemed fully valued.

Technical Outlook

Topglov had broken above its intermediate downtrend line (RR) at RM4.70 in December 2011. A medium-term uptrend line (SS) has also formed with support at RM4.70. For now, I believe the stock can stay above the 200-day SMA line at RM4.82.


Chart 5: Topglov's daily chart as at March 20, 2012 (Source: Tradesignum)

Conclusion

Despite the good financial performance & positive technical outlook, Topglov is rated a HOLD due to its high valuation. If the financial results improved further, Topglov could be rated a BUY.

ENG- privatization offer price lowered to RM2.00 a piece

On October 14, 2011, I recommended ENG as a good buyout play (here). The stock was heavily sold down due to the massive flood in Thailand that impact its two plants there. At the time of writing that post, the stock was trading at RM1.80 which was RM0.70 below the proposed privatization price of RM2.50.

Subsequently, the true impact of the flood became apparent. Even one of the major shareholder, Dato' Teh Eong Liang (the brother to ENG's CEO Dato' Teh Yong Khoon and the son of ENG's Chairperson, Datin Low Yeow Siang) sold down his stake in ENG (here). The stock traded at a low of RM1.50 but I felt that the selldown was overdone & I recommended a HOLD.

My faith in ENG took a further knock when I read its accounts for QE31/12/2011. In that statement, the company wrote off property, plant & equipment as well as inventories totaling RM45.8 million arising from the flood. I always felt that the management of ENG was very professional & conservative and they must have taken adequate insurance against many risks, including flood. The write-off seems to suggest otherwise.

Yesterday, ENG announced that the offeror has proposed a revision in the buyout price to RM2.00 (here). If this is acceptable to ENG, the deal may still go through. To those who have stayed with the stock, you may make a small profit from this investment. Of course, you could have done better by putting your money into other stocks which were heavily sold down during that period. My call on ENG reminds me of another earlier call to buy Courts; both have proven to be interesting journey. One day, we can talk about ENG- like Courts- with a slight tint of nostalgia because they won't be with us any more. However, as a blogger, I wish all my calls would be straight forward, with no wild swing.

Chartwise, you can see that ENG is now pressing against the horizontal resistance at RM1.80. This coincides with the line connecting the recent highs after the flood. If it can break above this level, it may go to RM1.90 - a 5% discount to the revised buyout price at RM2.00. The current price of RM1.80 incorporates the risk that the deal may still falter & the share price may drop back to the 50 & 100-day SMA line at RM1.72. There is very little profit to be made from a trade on this stock now. For those who are still holding into the stock, you can wait for the buyout & take home a further 20-sen profit (or a return of 11%) for a holding period of 3-4 months.


Chart: ENG's daily chart as at Mar 20, 2012 (Source: Quickcharts)

TGuan- the uptrend continued

Results Update

For QE31/12/2011, TGuan's net profit increased by 41% q-o-q or 8% y-o-y to RM7.7 million while turnover inched up marginally by 1% q-o-q or 3% y-oy- to RM144 million. The improved bottom-line was attributable to higher sales & better margin.


Table: TGuan's last 8 quarterly results



Chart 1: TGuan's last 27 quarterly results

Valuation

TGuan (closed at RM1.46 today) is now trading at a PE of 5.7 times (based on last 4 quarters' EPS of 25.85 sen). At this PE, TGuan is deemed fairly attractive.

Technical Outlook

TGuan is in a slow & steady uptrend. Over the past 2 months, the stock appeared to be trapped in a flag formation, with breakout at RM1.40. Today, the stock has broken above this flag formation and this could signal the continuation of its prior uptrend. The next resistance would be at RM1.60.


Chart 2: TGuan's daily chart as at Mar 20, 2012 (Source: Quickcharts)



Chart 3: TGuan's weekly chart as at Mar 19, 2012 (Source: Quickcharts)

Conclusion

Based on good financial performance, attractive valuation & positive technical outlook, TGuan could be a good stock for a medium-term investment.

A Brief Hiatus

I will be on leave next week. I won't be posting anything during that period.

FBM70- the first index to break its uptrend line!

If you visit Bursa Malaysia's website and look under FTSE BM Indices, you will find the various indices in our exchange. Lately, we have been exposed to the second & third liners which are represented by FBMACE or FBMSCAP or FBMFLG. Of course, we are all familiar with FBMKLCI which is made up of the top 30 stocks on our exchange. We may not be familiar with FBMEMAS, FBM100 & FBM70.

From the table below, we can see that the Main Board is divided firstly into the healthier stocks that made up the FBMEMAS & the not-so-healthy stocks that made up the FBMFLG. The FBMEMAS can then be divided further into the top 100 stocks, which are grouped under FBM100 & the smaller stocks that are grouped under FBMSCAP. Finally, FBM100 can be divided into FBMKLCI & FBM70.


Table: FTSE Bursa Malaysia Indices

If you look through the few charts below, you will find that FBMEMAS is barely hanging onto its uptrend line. It is slightly below the uptrend line, SS but marginally above the uptrend line, S1-S1.


Chart 1: FBMEMAS's daily chart as at Mar 8, 2012 (Source: Quickcharts)

On the other hand, we can see that FBMKLCI & FBMSCAP are above their respective uptrend line. The same cannot be said above FBM70, which has broken below its uptrend line (be it uptrend line, SS or uptrend line, S1-S1).

Unlike FBMKLCI, which has benefited from steady buying support from the fund managers, or FBMSCAP, which has benefited from enthusiastic buying by retail players, FBM70 must find its way into investors' radar. In that sense, FBM70- like a canary in a coal mine- may give a better picture of the true state of our market. If so, you can expect the broad market to eventually follow suit & consolidate some of its recent gain. As such, we may be better served by reducing our exposure to the market in the near term.


Chart 2: FBMKLCI's daily chart as at Mar 8, 2012 (Source: Quickcharts)



Chart 3: FBMSCAP's daily chart as at Mar 8, 2012 (Source: Quickcharts)



Chart 4: FBM70's daily chart as at Mar 8, 2012 (Source: Quickcharts)

AMedia dropped 8 sen or 19% today

Another stock which has plummeted sharply is AMedia. This stock lost 8 sen to close at RM0.34. It is a profitable company, which reported a net profit of RM15.2 million on turnover of RM36.5 million for FYE31/12/2011 (here). It was doing so well that it was reported to be planning a transfer to the Main Board (here). There was no report anywhere to explain the sudden drop in this stock.

I studied the financial statement for QE31/12/2011 & QE30/9/2011 and discovered a sudden increase in its Property, Plant & Equipment from RM36.7 million to RM70.0 million, which was financed by an increase in Other Payables & Accrued Expenses from RM0.8 million to RM30.9 million. These changes caused the company's Total Assets to jump from RM58.6 million to RM94.5 million while its Total Liabilities increased from RM2.6 million to RM34.6 million. While gearing ratio was negligible, its current ratio plummeted from 8 times to 0.6 times. However, AMedia was sitting on Cash & Bank Balances of RM12.6 million as at 31/12/2011 and this probably gave investors a high degree of comfort that the company was in a good financial position. It will be interesting to learn what caused the sudden drop in AMedia. I hope that it is not some skeletons in the closet like Silver.

Meanwhile, we can see that the stock should find support at the horizontal line at RM0.34 and thereafter at the intermediate uptrend line at RM0.32.


Chart: AMedia's daily chart as at March 7, 2012 (Source: Quickcharts)

Dijacor marked down by Related Parties Transactions

Dijacor announced that it will be acquiring 73 properties from its major shareholder, Danny Tan for RM948.7 million or at a discount of 16% to the market valuation of RM1.1 billion (for more, go here). Despite the hefty discount, the market showed its displeasure to this type of related parties transaction by selling off the stock. Dijacor dropped 18 sen to RM1.49 today. This means that the stock has broken below its horizontal support at RM1.55. It may find support at the psychological RM1.50 level or at the next horizontal line at RM1.44.


Chart: Dijacor's daily chart as at March 7, 2012 (Source: Quickcharts)

Market Outlook as at March 5, 2012

Over the past few days, the global equity markets went on a tear. Our FBMKLCI was no exception when it broke above the horizontal resistance at 1565-1566 on February 29 & hit an intra-day high of 1594 today- 3 point shy of the all-time intra-day high of 1597 recorded on July 11, 2011. See Chart 1 below.

After the sharp rally over the past few days & the failure to surpass the all-time high today, our market is likely to enter into a short correction over the next few days.You may use this correction to gain entry into the market.


Chart 1: FBMKLCI's daily chart as at March 2, 2012 (Source: Tradesignum)

As the FBMKLCI approaches the all-time high, we can expect the same for many of the sector indices. A quick look at the major sectors revealed the following:

- Consumer Products has been making new high ever since it surpassed the previous all-time high in December last year;
- Industrial Products, Plantation and Trading Services are at or near their respective all-time high; and
- Finance, Construction & Properties have not come near the all-time high but they have broken above their respective downtrend line.

Of these three laggard sectors, finance sector may be the first to test its all-time high. From Chart 2 below, we can see that Finance index has just broken to the upside of the wedge formation at 14100. It could rally to test its immediate resistance is at 14500 & then the psychological 15000 mark.


Chart 2: Finance's weekly chart as at March 2, 2012 (Source: Quickcharts)

The properties index broke above its intermediate downtrend line at 1040 in early February. It nearly tested its horizontal resistance at 1070 before it entered into a correction. This brought the index down to its medium-term uptrend line support at 1032. Today, it tested the horizontal resistance of 1070 but it failed to stay above it. An upside breakout above this horizontal resistance could send the index to the next horizontal resistance at 1130 & then the psychological 1150 mark.


Chart 3: Properties's weekly chart as at March 2, 2012 (Source: Quickcharts)

Finally, the construction sector corrected back to its medium-term uptrend line support at 260. It has earlier broken above its intermediate downtrend line resistance at 264 in early February. Can it recruit enough support to continue its upleg?


Chart 4: Construction's weekly chart as at March 2, 2012 (Source: Quickcharts)

If you are looking at some laggards to play catch-up, you can consider these three sectors. My personal preference is for the finance & construction sectors. Some finance stocks to consider are AMMB, CIMB, RHBCap & Maybank, and some construction stocks to look at are MMC, Gamuda, WCT & IJM.

Litrak- ready for take-off?

Litrak broke above its horizontal resistance at RM3.80 in January. Last week, The Edge newsletter reported that PLUS is keen to buy over Litrak. This report gave an impetus for the stock to rally above the psychological RM4.00 mark on Monday (see Chart 1).

CIMB has issued a research report on this surprising 'news' and it has valued Litrak at RM4.45 (here). CIMB prefers Gamuda, the major shareholder of Litrak, to Litrak if one wants to play the news on the sale of Litrak.

From the Chart 2, we can see that Litrak has risen substantially over the past 3 years. The breakout above an important psychological level; the setting of a new all-time high; and, rumor of a buyout could propel the stock into an exponential rise, known as the blowout stage. While the volume traded has not been impressive, that may not be a critical criteria for a blowout in the share price. If you look at how much some blue chips such as GAB, Carlsbg & DLady - or even second-tier stocks such as Kassets or AEONCR- have risen over the past few weeks or months on relatively thin volume, then one can make a case that the same could happen to Litrak.

Based on the above, Litrak could be a good trading BUY.


Chart 1: Litrak's daily chart as at Mar 2, 2012 (Source: quickcharts)



Chart 2: Litrak's monthly chart as at Feb 27 2012 (Source: Tradesignum)