Recovery in second half 2009 predicted

The US Conference Board Leading Economic Index ('LEI') is predicting recovery in the US in the second half of 2009 (here). LEI is an American economic index intended to forecast future economic activity. It is calculated by The Conference Board, a non-governmental organization, which determines the value of the index from the values of ten key variables. These variables have historically turned downward before a recession and upward before an expansion. The single index value composed from these ten variables has generally proved capable of predicting recessions over the past 50 years. This index correctly forecast each of the eight recessions during the 1959-2009 period, but it has also forecast recessions that did not occur.

IMF has earlier revised its forecast for global economic growth in 2010 to 2.5% from its earlier estimate of 1.9%, with the increase expected to be led by India and China. Nevertheless, IMF still expects the global economy to contract by 1.4% this year. For more, go here.