Thursday, August 05, 2010

Weida may have a bullish breakout

Weida has broken above its strong horizontal line at RM0.82 today. This was preceding by an upside breakout above its long-term downtrend line at RM0.80 at the end of July. With this breakout, Weida could potentially rally to test the psychological level of RM1.00 & then the horizontal line at RM1.07-1.10.


Chart: Weida's weekly chart as at August 2, 2010 (Source: Tradesignum)

I have appended the recent financial results for Weida. A quick glance will show that Weida's performance is very erratic due to the sharp swing in its Work division. In the last 4 quarters, it achieved an EPS of 13 sen as compared to 11 sen in the preceding 4 quarters. Based on its current price of RM0.845 & an average EPS of 12 sen, Weida is trading at PER of 7 times. For a small-cap, Weida is deemed fairly priced. It may trade up to a PER of 8 times; thus giving the stock an upside of 14-15%.


Table: Weida's last 8 quarterly results.

Based on technical breakout, Weida could be a good trading BUY.

21 comments:

NGU said...

Hi Alex,

Help and Haio seems to have come down quite a bit.What would be a good entry points for these two stocks ?

Alex Lu said...

HI NGU,

I would strongly recommend everybody to avoid HELP. The stock has run up too much (from RM1.40 to RM4.80 over a i-year period!).

I have just posted this comment on Haio to another read:

Haio's technical outlook is bearish, It broke below its 200-day SMA line at RM3.60. It may see a death cross soon. The immediate support is at RM3.40-50 and thereafter at RM3.15 & RM2.50.

Haio's recent poor financial performance did not help the stock. If its performance improved, the stock will stand a better prospect of a turnaround.

Eric Sim said...

It's a very informative blog.

Eric Sim said...

Hi Alex,

Is it a buy call for Mudajaya now?

ronnie said...

Dear Alex,

Looking at Notion. Could you explain why half the days volume done in ten minutes starting 4.50 second session. Total vol of 3.6 m.

pharmacyproduct2u said...

I think probably due to Nikon profits leap.
http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/business/article/nikon-profits-leap-stepper-sales-seen-up/

cheer said...

Hi Alex,

Don't mind to share a bit of the Financial Analysis for Perisai, Muhibbah n FajarBaru.

TQ

Avatar said...

Cheer,

Me too love to see the FBG's financial year end results but its not out yet.

MaxWealth88 said...

hi Alex,

is it safe to touch mudajaya now?

thanks
maxwealth88

Alex Lu said...

Hi Eric

Thank you for your nice assessment of the blog.

I don't know what's going on in Mudajaya. The sellers are pretty determined. The analysts are standing firm with their BUY calls. The only guide we have is technical analysis and it is not a pretty picture.

The 'poison letter' made serious allegation of tax avoidance, which could haunt the company even after the current problem has been resolved. I rather give this stock a miss.

Alex Lu said...

Hi ronnie

You are right about the transaction in Notion yesterday, where half the day's volume was done in the last ten minutes. Total volume for the day was 3.6 million.

I don't know why it happened. It could be share buyback executed by the company. We will know about this when the company made its filing with Bursa.

I will post an update on Notion shortly.

Alex Lu said...

Hi MaxWealth88

No matter how you look at it, Mudajaya is a risky trade at this moment. A few weeks later when the dust had settled & the worst fear was proven to be unfounded, we would look back & say we've missed a buying opportunity. But that won't make any buying decision taken today to be any less risky. If you choose to go into this stock, be sure to have protective stop.

Alex Lu said...

Hi cheer

I will look into the financial aspects of Perisai, Muhibbah and Fajar when I have the time. For now, I will give you my technical take:

1. Muhibah has broken above its medium-term downtrend line at RM0.93. Good entry at RM0.93-95.

2. Fajar is still in a medium-term downtrend, with resistance at RM1.10. If it can cross above the 200-day SMA line at RM1.00, the recovery may then begin.

3. Perisai is still in a long-term downtrend with resistance at RM0.56.

Layman said...

Dear Alex,

Good day.

Next week heavy knock down cos of US poor reports coming tonite?

How do you find the oil price/oil counters as at current price?

Thanks.

Mr.Ling said...

Hi Alex,
What happen to the TOPGLOV recently after it bonus issue?

It's good to buy at this moment?

thank you.

Alex Lu said...

Hi Layman

From some pundits' reports, I believe US employment numbers will not be good.

How would that impact oil price? I don't know. I think commodity prices may take a knock soon when USD stages a rebound. USD is now resting on its 200-day SMA line.

Alex Lu said...

Hi Mr.Ling

I am not positive on TOPGLOV. I was looking at this stock from every angle this morning, with the idea of calling a top on this stock. I have put it off until it breaks below RM6.00.

Some indicators (such as MACD & RSI) have already shown bearish divergence. However, the deciding factor is always the share price. We will have to wait & see whether the price would move in that direction in the weeks ahead.

HK Jun said...

Hi Alex,

What's your thought on MAMEE and YEELEE? Is it a good time for entry now?

TQ.

Just_Play said...

Just join ur blog. Hi there Alex.

Wan to ask ur opinion on SINOTOP and TIGER....

Buy, Hold or sell?

Tq very much. Hv a nice weekend.

Cheers!!

Alex Lu said...

Hi HK Jun

There is a saying "Nothing succeeds quite as well as success!" That saying certainly applies to MAMEE and YEELEE. If you have the benefit of looking at the chart, you will see that these relatively quiet stocks had moved up a lot. MAMEE is now testing its all-time high at RM3.70-80 which was recorded in 1994. YEELEE is still quite far awat from its all-time high of RM6.20 recorded in 1994. Its immediate resistance is at RM4.00.

If you want to buy on dips, the level to try maybe RM3.10-20 for both stocks. Alternatively, you can try Lonbisc which is substantially lower & has begun to show signs of buying interest.

Remember also the saying "Nothing recedes quite as fast as success!"

Alex Lu said...

Hi Just_Play

TIGER dropped sharply after it announced the proposed capital reduction. With the proposal in place, I doubt TIGER will roar.

SINOTOP has completed a very large Rights Issue on the basis of 10 RI shares for every 1 share owned at the price of RM0.20 each. For the share price to drop below the issue price is a bit surprising and very negative. Would you sell your shares at RM0.16 now when you paid RM0.20 for it. The fact that there are sellers out there selling at that price is sending out a bearish signal. Something is not right with this stock. Beware!