MNRB reported another quarter of good profit. The improved performance is due to the absence of big claims & additional claim provision in order to comply with BNM requirement.
Table: MNRB's last 10 quarterly results
Chart 1: MNRB's 15 quarterly results
Valuation
Based on the annualized EPS of 44 sen, MNRB (closed at RM2.78 yesterday) is now trading at a current PE of 6.3 times. However, MNRB's performance has been so erratic over the past 9-10 quarters, that one is hard pressed to accept this annualized figure. Assuming a 50% discount, MNRB would still be trading at 12.6 times. Even at the adjusted figure, MNRB is deemed inexpensive.
Technical Outlook
From the long-term monthly chart (plotted on log scale), MNRB seems to be resting on its "uptrend line" support of RM2.70-2.80.
Chart 2: MNRB's monthly chart as at Nov 1, 2010 (Source: Tradesignum)
Conclusion
Based on improved performance & good technical support at RM2.70-2.80, MNRB could be a good stock for long-term investment.
11 comments:
Dear Alex,
Hope to hear your view on PPB. I bought few hundreds shares so far @ 19+, 18+ but now on low trend,kindly give some insights. Thanks a lot. Cheers.
Hi Alex
MNRB used to be top dividend stock, paying regular dividend 3x pa. But somehow, after disposing MOX and record huge one off gain, MNRB luck factor seem deteriorating, record inconsistency earning due to claim/provision and since then opt not to pay dividend at all!? With increasing number of takaful and retakaful player, MNRB no longer command niche on its Takaful/retakaful ikhlas, unless there is consolidation in these industry.
MNRB really need to show investor its capabilities to content its risk in claim ratio to protect its profit margin and at least show more consistent earning in next few quarter result and should resumed its dividend policy to payout at least 50-70% of its earning
Hi Alex,
I m betting on mnrb to get back on good olden days. I had been average down my buying price since 1 year ago when i bought at RM3.2 and didnt give up till now. Anyway I just hope a better claiming ratio and have the management take note on the natural disaster risk. Achieving 0.15sen earning per share per quarter is not difficult and reasonable when compare to the revenue. Time will prove!
Lately u didn’t recommend any cheap and longterm stock, other than MNRB any other in ur sight?
Dear Alex,
Can you please comment is it now is the best time to buy Daya at RM0.21?
Thank you.
Hi Alex,
Your analysis on EAH ex-bonus is spot on with the ex-price now at RM0.54 thereabout. Would u think it will climb back to cum-price of about RM0.64?? If yes, then it's time to accumulate, right? Please advise.
Thanks.
Hi surewin1woh
I think EAH will slowly recover back 60-70% of the lost ground over the next few weeks.
Hi Ethan Lee
I think Daya could be a good buy at RM0.21. In addition, it has a strong horizontal support at RM0.20 & then at RM0.18. However, the breakout level for the recent play was RM0.21 & this should a crucial support level & thus a good entry level.
Hi ryan
You are right. Only time will tell whether we're right we about this stock.
Lately, I have been posting very little. The truth is I am expecting a significant correction in the market. It's hard to wear two hats at the same time. When unsure, post less is my policy.
Hi hng
Your take on MNRB is spot on. Its erratic performance makes MNRB a poor stock.
Hi Layman
PPB broke its medium-term uptrend line (stretching back to May 2010) at RM18.00 on Nov 30. Its next support is at the long-term uptrend line (stretching back to Oct 2008) at RM17.00. Thereafter, the stock has a strong horizontal support at RM15.00.
Unless the market has peaked & is entering into a 6-month cyclical bear phase, I think the RM17.00 support should hold.
What to do with your high priced stock? You either ride it out or do a trading SELL (i.e. sell now & buyback at RM17.00). That's your choice to make. It's a hard choice.
HI Alex,
Look at this USD versus MYR chart http://tinyurl.com/35jrfpl , what is your comment to glove stock ?
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