Wednesday, October 05, 2011

Supermx & Topglov- time for some profit-taking

The rubber glove stocks went on a tear yesterday and early this morning. The top gainers- Topglov & Supermx- hit their respective strong horizontal line. I do not expect this horizontal resistance to be test so soon. I think this is a very good level for some profit-taking. For Supermx, the level to trading sell is RM3.60-3.70 while for Topglov, it is at RM4.70-4.80.


Chart 1: Supermx's daily chart as at Oct 5, 2011_9.08am (Source: Quickcharts)



Chart 2: Topglov's daily chart as at Oct 5, 2011_9.08am (Source: Quickcharts)

8 comments:

newbie said...

Hi,Alex,
Good morning.What's your take on the weakening Malaysian Ringgit against the US Dollar?Is it going to hold amidst the uncertainty?If it is,do you think sectors like timber and technology should benefit?
Thank you in advance.In my opinion, your analysis are not only good,they are timely as well.That's the reason why I agree with your call to use fundamental as well as technical analysis.It's easy to ask people to adopt the buy and hold strategy,but how many people can afford to do so?Your method to combine TA and FA in analysing a stock allows one to benefit form the price movement in a shorter period of time.
Thanks again.

Remnant 888 said...

You're best person to ask on this.

I earlier read a report that EPIC only offer cash compensation for price difference betw. 3.10 and price sold before a certain date in Dec 2010. So I told a friend he's no entitled to this as he sold his EPIC shares in June 2011..

Today I read in EDGE Financial Daily dated Tues 4th Oct 2011 this conflicting news;

"EPIC shareholders who sold their shares between 9am on Dec 10, 2010 and 5pm on Aug 23, 2011 are entitled to a cash compensation equivalent to the difference in the amount they sold their shares and the RM3.10 mandatory general offer (MGO) price."

Now I'm confused. Is this a revised offer or did I read wrong the initial report..?
Thanks for yr thoughts on this..

Anonymous said...

Hi Alex

Faber share continue slide ahead of its due expire concessionaire by end of these month. Renewal risk still remain major concern. Please advice whether or not to buy at current weakness level in a bid that Faber will be grant extension or wait for news confirmation?

cheer said...

Hi Alex,

MBSB today show big vol. Do you think the rally is temporary ?

Regards

Remnant 888 said...

Hi Alex, This was the pre-qualification I read from an earlier report: claimants must be holder/owner of shares as at 10 Dec 2010.

"The offerers will offer the Claimants, cash compensation equivalent to the differential amount between the offer price of RM3.10 and the price at which their EPIC shares were sold. Claimants must be an owner of EPIC shares as at 10 Dec 2010 and who has sold his/her shares during the compensation period at a price lower than RM3.10. The documents regarding this compensation will be sent out to Claimants within 21 days from 24th August."

But EDGE made no mention of such..
Thanks you for yr view on this..

Alex Lu said...

Hi Remnant 888

I am not sure how the EPIC's "compensation" work? When I first read it, I ask myself the question of whether this could lead to double or triple compensation. Example: What if I owned 1000 EPIC in Dec 2010 and I sold it at a profit in Feb 2011 for RM2.40. Then I bought back 1000 EPIC at RM2.25 in Mar 2011. Let consider two scenarios:
1) I sold the stock at a profit in August at RM2.80. How do you compute the compensation? Is it RM3.10 less RM2.80 or is it RM3.10 less RM2.40.
2) I am still holding onto 1000 EPIC. I should be entitled to accept the GO now. Can I ask for compensation for the earlier 1000 EPIC that I sold in February?

I think the answer to the first scenario is (RM3.10 less RM2.40) and to the 2nd scenario is (yes, I can accept the GO as well as claim for the compensation).

This is a bad mistake on the part of the offeror. Terengganu state government is having too much money. As much as this buyout was badly executed & raised serious doubt on the investment programme of the state "wealth fund", there are other questionable welfare programmes caried by the state government. Second honeymoon for unhappy couples? If you want to go for holiday, move to Terengganu & pretend to be an unhappy couple. This reminds me of the practice of Buddhists who set birds free on auspicious days. The traders, who sell the birds to these Buddhists, would pay someone to catch the birds. For every bird set free, 3 birds must be caught from the wild. Of these 3 birds, 2 would die in captivity. All this goes to show that good intention can lead us astray.

Alex Lu said...

Hi hng

I have no idea what is Faber's chances of getting an extension of the concession. I expect good support at RM1.00-1.20.

Alex Lu said...

Hi cheer

MBSB is testing its medium-term downtrend line at RM1.35-1.37. The stock also has very strong resistance at RM1.35-1.40. If it can break above RM1.40, the stock's downtrend is over & it could then be a safer BUY. Until then, you should treat the current rebound as a technical rebound off a temporary bottom. But you are right about the volume. It's HUGE! Wonder why?