Thursday, December 08, 2011

ToyoInk- rehashing an old story

A typical conversation in a kopitiam somewhere in PJ.

A: Aiyah... Our share price never goes up one ah.

B: How to go up?! The last time I checked, we're still in the same old bloody boring business of making ink!

A: But, we got a fierce power project in Vietnam. People don't care meh?

B: How many times do I have to tell you, that one may not take off.

A: Aiyah... Nobody knows!

B: They know and they don't care.

A: Maybe we tell those smart-alek analysts again. Who else... These guys need to write a new report everyday!

B: I don't think they will be interested. It is a dead end!

A: Never mind. Some people may buy the story & the share would zoom up lor. The newspapers people call it "Wealth Creation". Ha, ha, ha... More for me, less for others. Ha, ha, ha...

B: How to tell them about the Vietnam power project again? It is an old story. We need a new angle?

A: Just tell them we are starting R&D.

B: R&D? We don't know anything about power generation!

A: Some people don't know one. They're not smart enough. Even if they know, they think others would be dumb enough to buy the story. The newspapers people call it "the Greater Fool Theory". I like that! Ha, ha, ha...

B: Okay. Tomorrow I will call some analysts. If that doesn't work, I'll call a few newspapers. I'll tell them we are going to do R&D on power generation. I doubt they will take the bite.

A: Aiyah... You worried too much ah. When Tenaga read it, they will get scared! Ha, ha, ha...

The next day, this story- Toyo Ink to start R&D on Vietnam power plant - appears in the newspaper.


Chart: ToyoInk's weekly chart as at Dec 8, 2011_9.15am (Source: Quickcharts)

Technically speaking, ToyoInk has a strong resistance at RM1.95-2.00. If it can break above this resistance, it may revisit its all-time high of RM2.42 recorded in January 2010. And, IF it can break above that price, it may really, really fly. It's called the blue sky scenario. But, don't bet on it! I doubt ToyoInk can surpass the RM2.00 for now.

Have a nice day! And, stop reading nexttrade for a while. I don't have a story to write everyday. Go to the nearest kopitiam and have a cuppa java! You may learn a thing or two about people & life.

7 comments:

sham said...

Thank you for all your post, greatly appreciated.

David K said...

Hahaha! This is something refreshing to read! Good one.

Stanley said...

Hi Alex, thanks for all the great comments. Any comments on Puncak?

Jim said...

Hi Alex,

Can you kindly comment on MNRB after 1H net profit 37.027 million (decreased 21.89%)? Still good for long term investment?

Thanks.

Jim said...

Hi Alex,

Can you kindly comment on Hiapteck (HIAPTEK-OA - RIGHTS ISSUE)? Right time to enter?

Thanks.

Alex Lu said...

Hi Stanley

Puncak will be surrounded by negative news for the next few weeks or months. Just concentrate on the Book Value and the underlying assets or business of the group. The stock is worth more than RM2.00 & I think it will recover back to that level in a few months time.

Alex Lu said...

Hi Jimmy Yeoh

Hiapteck used to be a very promising company. Now, I am not sure.

What surprised me is that its previous major shareholder, Kua is prepared to welcome another shareholder, David Law into the company- one who will have more shares than him. I met Kua in my banking days & he doesn't strike me as the type of person who will take a back seat. Of course, David Law has more money than Kua & he may have connection to bring Hiaptek to the next level.

The company is getting into a new steel venture in East Coast, probably with David Law's connection. This should generate a bit of excitement for the stock. That did not happen! Why?

Hiaptek is a fairly profitable company. It reported a net profit of RM8 mil on turnover of RM296 mil for 1Q2012. For FY2011, it reported a net profit of RM27 mil on turnover of RM1 bil. Its financial position is alarming given the nature of its trade- pipe-making & hardware.

Technically, Hiaptek has a good horizontal support at RM0.58-0.60.

Based on this, I think the stock is alright. But the poor share price performance is a nagging concern & you may want to keep the exposure small.

(HIAPTEK-OA - RIGHTS ISSUE)