Friday, February 03, 2012

Market Outlook as at February 3, 2012

From the chart below, FBMKLCI tested its medium-term uptrend line (SS) at 1510 and rebounded strongly. It broke above the 3rd fan uptrend line (R-R3) at 1525. With this bullish breakout, I expect the market rally to pick up its pace. Its next resistance is at the horizontal line at 1550 & 1565.


Chart: FBMKLCI's daily chart as at February 2, 2012 9Source: quickhcarts)

5 comments:

JY said...

Hi Alex

Agree with you KLCI is picking up strength. But I am concern with US especially DJI is testing its triple top, and M'sia will be closed for 2 days next week.

Technically what's the chance you reckon that US Dji can break the resistance?

Ho Lee Man said...

Hi Alex,

I have been reading your blog.
What is your view and advice for the Oil and Gas sector?
How do you read counters like PERISAI and HIBISCUS?

Alex Lu said...

Hi Ho Lee Man

Oil and Gas sector is likely to attract interest given Petronas's big capex program for the next few years. The recent oil find off Sabah is another source of growth for this sector.

My views for PERISAI and HIBISCUS are mixed. Technically, Perisai is pressing against its line connecting its peaks for the past 7-8 years, If it can break above the RM1.00 level, the technical outlook for this stock could turn bullish. IF it can achieve a breakout above the RM1.00 mark, it may go as high as RM1.80-2.00 over many months.

Hibiscus is a tricky stock. It has risen so high by riding on the coattail of LIME, which is involved in oil exploration in the Middle East. In Hibiscus, you have a newcomer investing in another newcomer who is trying to find oil in a new oil field. It is a house of cards which can disappoint investors in so many ways. My advice is to avoid Hibiscus.

Alex Lu said...

Hi JY

You are right to be concerned about the US market in the short-term. The 13000 mark is a very strong resistance for DJIA. I feel that DJIA may not be able to break above this level on the first attempt. If DJIA failed to take out this level, it could set the stage for a consolidation for the market. The market could pull back to 12700 or 12500 level.

Barring an immediate default in Greece or another bout of hysteria in the Eurozone, equity markets would likely to continue to go higher after a brief correction.

Ho Lee Man said...

Hi Alex,
I agree with you on the buoyancy ahead of the Oil and Gas sector.
Besides new discoveries ,those counters providing services ,fabrications and oil pipes will also generate investors' interest ,as they piggy back along.
It caught my notice ,when I took profit from Coastal and even KNM.
KNM was bought at 97sen and sold at 116sen after 2 weeks.
Hibiscus is not only tricky but suspicious to me.
Will watch Perisai closely.
Thanks for your sharing.
I appreciate your advice.