Wednesday, January 09, 2013

Market Outlook as at January 9, 2013

Last week, FBMKLCI made a new all-time high of 1699.68 (on January 4), eclipsing the previous all-time high of 1679.37 recorded on October 29, 2012. It nearly tested the psychological level of 1700 as well as the line connecting the 'peaks' for the past 9 months. The first attempt of the 1700 mark failed, not surprisingly. That the market had rallied slightly more than 100 points from the low of 1590 in late November 2012 could mean that the stage is now set for a correction. The market could pullback to the 20-day EMA of 1670 before staging another attempt at the 1700 mark. The same technical picture can be seen in the chart for FBMEmas.

Based on this, I expect the market to be tricky & our trading posture should be cautious. You may consider adding to your position if FBMKLCI were to weaken to 1670 as three of the major market worries- Eurozone problem, US fiscal cliff & Chinese hard lading- have now been banished to the sideline. However, we in Malaysia would have to contend with the General Election jittery around the corner. I personally doubt the ruling government will lose the election and in any event, I believe that any upset has been fully priced in by the market.

Chart: FBMKLCI's daily chart as at Jan 8, 2013 (Source: Quickcharts)

Chart: FBMEmas's daily chart as at Jan 8, 2013 (Source: Quickcharts)


Mat Cendana said...

The GE factor does affect BSKL as can be seen from counters like MRCB especially. Based on its record, MRCB is usually above 2.00 most of the time. But it has not been above this level for almost a year now. Every time there's an upswing, traders would remember the GE and start taking profits.

I think it might suffer a drop in reaction to imminent news of parliament about to be dissolved, paving the way for the GE. But I see that as an opportunity - if the price becomes attractive enough, MRCB might be worth the risk. If BN puts in a better performance, there will be a knee-jerk response where this counter will most likely go up... and break past the 2.00 level again.

Sofiya Lim said...

Nice and brief overview of KLSE Malaysia stock market, represented as the market outlook for the tarders.