MYR: Strengthening against USD

Looking at Chart 1, we can see that USD/MYR has just broken its uptrend line, SS support at 3.65. At the same time, USD/MYR has broken below the line connecting the recent peaks in 2005 & 2008, which is the resistance-turned-support at 3.65 (see Chart 2). This means that USD/MYR is likely drift down to 3.50 or 3.35 over the next 3-6 months.


Chart 1: USD/MYR's weekly chart as at April 22, 2015 (Source: XE.com)


Chart 1: USD/MYR's monthly chart as at April 22, 2015 (Source: XE.com)

The drop in USD/MYR may not be attributable to the strengthening of our Ringgit. It is likely to be the weakening of the US Dollar, which has a fine rally over the past 12-15 months. If we look at Chart 3, we can see that SGD/MYR is still in the uptrend with support at 2.68. Then again, SGD/MYR has been in an upward channel for the past 10 years (see Chart 4). The immediate support & resistance at 2.50 & 2.75, respectively.


Chart 3: SGD/MYR's weekly chart as at April 22, 2015 (Source: XE.com)


Chart 4: SGD/MYR's monthly chart as at April 22, 2015 (Source: XE.com)

Meanwhile we can see that the downtrend for JPY/MYR may be over while EUR/MYR may find support at 3.80.


Chart 5: JPY/MYR's monthly chart as at April 22, 2015 (Source: XE.com)


Chart 6: EUR/MYR's monthly chart as at April 22, 2015 (Source: XE.com)

Going forward, I believe our Ringgit is likely to strengthen in line with the improvement in the prices of crude oil, which is a very important export commodity for Malaysia.