Tuesday, August 30, 2016

CIMB: Earnings Continued to Rise

Results Update

For QE30/6/2016, CIMB's net profit rose 7% q-o-q or 36% y-o-y to RM873 million.

Table: CIMB's last 8 quarterly results

From Chart 1 & 2 below, we can see that CIMB's financial performance is on the mend.

Chart 1: CIMB's last 16 quarterly results

Chart 2: CIMB's last 11 half-years' results 


CIMB (closed at RM4.77 yesterday) is now trading at a trailing PER of 12.6x (based on last 4 quarters' EPS of 38 sen). At this PER, CIMB is deemed fairly valued.

Technical Outlook

The weekly chart shows CIMB has yet to reverse from its downtrend. The positive sign is that the recent low is higher than the January low of less than RM4.00 but the stock has yet to surplus its April high of RM5.00. In addition, MACD is still in the negative territory.

Chart 3: CIMB's weekly chart as at Aug 29, 2016 (Source:

The monthly chart shows the MACD has crossed above the MACD signal line. In addition, ADXR has peaked and dropping. The last 2 times we saw a peak in ADXR was in 2007 & 2011 when the stock peaked. This round the peak in the ADXR could well signal the trough in the stock.

Chart 4: CIMB's monthly chart as at Aug 29, 2016 (Source:

Finally, we can see that share price downtrend could have overshot as the financial performance has already started to recover in the past 6 quarters.

Chart 5: CIMB's weekly chart as at Aug 29, 2016 plus 16-quarterly P&L (Source:


Based on improving financial performance & tentative technical signals, CIMB could be a good stock for a recovery play.

I hereby confirm that I do not have any direct interest in the security or securities mentioned in this post. However, I could have an indirect interest in the security or securities mentioned as some of my clients may have an interest in the acquisition or disposal of the aforementioned security or securities. As investor, you should fully research any security before making an investment decision.


Heng said...

hi Alex,
Good day!

Can you comment on MSC colsing at price RM3.07 30 Aug 2016.
Pls advice.


Alex Lu said...

Hi heng,

MSC has broken above its long-term downtrend line at RM2.70-2.80. It even managed to climb above the horizontal line at RM3.00.

MSC price chart move less in line with its own financial performance than the movement of tin prices. If tin prices can break above the USD20k a ton, we may see another upleg for MSC to RM3.50 or even RM4.00. Currently tin is trading USD19145 a ton.

The link to view tin price chart: