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Monday, May 28, 2018

Crude Oil Poised to Correct

Last Friday, crude oil price tumbled 4% last Friday on reports that Opec and Russia may consier easing oil cap (here). The price continued to weaken this morning, with Brent trading at USD75.63 as at 3.07 a.m. (EDT). This means Brent is now marginally below its uptrend line, SS. In February, Brent broke the uptrend line, S1-S1, when it dropped from the high ofUSD71 to USD62. The current breakdown of the uptrend line, if not quickly reversed, could send the price to USD70.


Chart 1: Brent's daily chart as at May 28, 2018_3.00pm (Source: stockchart.com)

At the same time, the continued strengthening of the USD has led to a slow but steady rise in USD-MYR. A break above the 4.00 mark could easily send USD-MYR to 4.10-4.15.


Chart 2: USD-MYR's daily chart as at May 28, 2018_3.00pm (Source: Investing.com)

The weakness of the crude oil price coupled with the rise in USD-MYR may weaken investors' resolve in our stock market. With so many projects and policies up in the air, investors may feel that it is wiser to take their money off the table. I would agree with that if the share prices were not trading at such a low level. In fact some stocks are trading at such attractive prices that a case can be made that this may be a good time to slowly buy into the market. Looking at the chart below, I believe the FBMKLCI support at 1750-1760 may still hold up our market in the near term. However, if this support is violated, we will have to refer to the long-term uptrend line support at 1700.     


Chart 3; FBMKLCI's daily chart as at May 28, 2018_3.00pm (Source: Shareinvestor.com)

If you choose to invest in the market today, please do so slowly and always pick attractively-priced stocks that have good earnings, decent dividend payout and healthy financial position. Good luck!

1 comment:

wan khairuzzaman said...

Can you advise which stock is good to buy now.