Market Outlook as at June 28, 2007

Many of you must have heard of the saying that investing is hard. Even harder than that is investment blogging. From Abnormal Returns, you have a recent post that deals with the same subject (go here). It seems that some bloggers are giving up & moving on. Sad, indeed.

This brings me to the subject at hand, i.e. where is our market heading to? You would recall my recent post on this subject (go here), where I have confidently predicted the start of the next bullish rally. After a short rally where the KLCI hit a high of 1392 on June 22, the market reversed. In the next 4 days, the KLCI dropped about 3% to close at 1351, yesterday (see the chart below).


Chart: KLCI's daily chart as at June 28 (courtesy of Tradesignum.com)

The drop has been so steep that the KLCI has broken below its 20- & 30-day SMA as well as closing marginally below the 50-day SMA. The sharp correction in our market, which is likely to be a reaction to the weakness in US equity market, has effectively put an end to my bullish rally call. Our market is likely to put in a throwback rally from the 1350 level, which is not likely to go very far. A break of the 1350 level may see the KLCI testing the strong horizontal support of 1335 or even the psychological support of 1300.