Monday, July 12, 2010

Axiata may have a bullish breakout at RM4.00

Axiata broke above its downtrend line (R2-R2) in June. This morning, it broke above its horizontal line, H2 at RM4.00. With this later breakout, Axiata may put in a decent rally similar to January-February this year when it charged up from RM3.25 to RM4.00.


Chart : Axiata's daily chart as at July 12, 2010_10.00am (Source: Quickchart)

Based on the above, Axiata may be a good trading BUY.

29 comments:

aro said...

What would be the resistance value?

Alex Lu said...

Hi Ahmad Rozian,

I think that resistance would be at RM4.50 & thereafter at RM4.70-75.

Layman said...

Dear Alex,

What is your view on Timedotcomean? Some Securities com had labelled it as potential threat for TM to take control of wireless broad band/ mobil industry.

Does it has good fundamentals, etc?

Hope for your views. Thanks alot.

Regards

Alex Lu said...

Hi Layman,

I am not familiar with the various mobile broadband technology. My feeling for Time.com is colored by years of disappointment from this stock. Recently I read that there is a newer technology which may threaten operators using WIMAX. This new technology is LTE. Read about it in the link below.

http://www.ciol.com/Networking/News-Reports/TD-LTE%27s-success-might-prove-fatal-to-WiMAX/138575/0/

Sumin said...

Hi Alex
Can you pls comment on IRCB?
Thanks

Alex Lu said...

Hi Sumin,

IRCB is involved in the manufacturing and trading of latex gloves. Its annual production capacity is about 2.2 billion gloves. However, IRCB is a marginal player. For FY2010, it reported a net profit of RM5.2 million on turnover of RM147 million. That's a turnaround from a loss of RM5.0 million on turnover of RM136 million recorded in FY2009. For 1Q2011, its net profit dropped by 91% to RM326 despite a 57%-jump in turnover to RM42 million.

Chartwise, IRCB has been declining in a downtrend line, with resistance at RM0.75-77. However, it has strong horizontal support at RM0.53-57, which could the level where a rebound may kick in.

Layman said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Layman said...

Dear Alex,

Thanks for your earlier reply.

What do you think of the plantation stocks in Bursa now. ANy potentioal stocks that we can lay fingers on it. It seems our neighbour Jim Roger is quite insterested in our natural resources stock.

Is the IOI Corp at comfortable price range for a buy now?

Thanks for your time again.
Regards.

Anonymous said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
CK said...

Dear Alex, what is your view on titan chemicals ? is there an overbought indicator at this moment?
thanks

Alex Lu said...

Hi Layman,

Recently, I have posted that Plantation stocks may drop further as CPO has just broken below its uptrend line that dated back to Oct 2008. I have noted that the Plantation index has a death cross (where the 50-day SMA line has crossed below the 200-day SMA line). On closer examination, the death cross has yet to flash out.

Based on the negative technical outlook on CPO, I believe that the earlier call may still be valid despite the error regarding the sighting of the death cross on the Plantation index.

If I maintain my outlook on Plantation sector, the same should apply to IOI. In fact, IOI looks poised for a death cross (with the 50-day SMA & 200-day SMA at RM5.10). Should this happened, IOI could drop further. However, if you still like to get into IOI, the level to aim for is its recent May low at RM4.65.

Layman said...

Dear Alex,

Thanks alot.

Alex Lu said...

Hi CK,

Titan's two major shareholders (PNB & the Chao family) are reported to be negotiating to jointly dispose off their stakes in Titan. The buyer could end up with a majority stake of about 60% in Titan. If that happened, we can expect a MGO unless an exemption is granted. What would be an acceptable price for a majority stake in Malaysia's largest integrated producer of olefins and polyolefins, and one of the largest polyolefins producers in South-East Asia? Could it be its NTA per share at RM2.42 as at 31/3/2010?

What if the rumored sale did not materialize? Then, a good price to dispose off Titan is about RM1.85-1.90, which is near the all-time high of about RM1.90 (recorded in 2005 & 2007).

Ivan said...

Hi Alex,

What is your view on mkt Ci right now. The spot market close end of day with insider hand push up 1-2 pts in last 5 minutes. ..

Unknown said...

Hi Alex,

What is ur view on scomimr? worth to chase?

cheer said...

Please comment Ajiya

Unknown said...

Hi Alex,
Can you advise me Genting and also Kinstel. ?

CK said...

Thanks Alex for your opinion on Titan Chemicals. Looking at how the stock rose quickly from RM1.20++ to 1.80 now in heavy volume,normally not seen in this stock, I tend to think that definitely something is brewing.Hope my hunch is right.

TehGK said...

Dear Alex,

Appreciate if you could comment on Plenitude? Price rises these few days, with relatively thin volume, possibly another target for privatiation?

TehGK said...

Dear Alex,

Could you comment on Plentidu? Prices surge these few days with thin volume.Possibly another target for privatisation?

Alex Lu said...

HI mann,

I was asked the same question earlier. This was my reply:

SCOMIMR is expected to announce a “very substantial” transaction involving the disposal of a portion of its 80.54%-stake in PT Rig Tenders Indonesia Tbk, a company listed on the Jakarta Stock Exchange to a large Indonesian company, said to be involved in the coal business. PT Rig Tenders is primarily involved in the transportation and provision of logistics support for major coal producers in Indonesia.

Scomimr should be completing the sale of its 29.07%-stake in CH Offshore Ltd to Falcon Energy Group Ltd for total cash consideration of S$143.5 million. This disposal will lead to gain S$61.5 million.

With these 2 major disposal, what would be Scomimr's business prospect going forward? Without more detail, it is hard to guess how Scomimr will perform.

However, Scomimr is now trading at 0.36 times its NTA per share of RM1.19 as at 31/3/2010. Scomimr's books should be relatively clean after a substantial write-off of RM159 million for impairment loss on goodwill as well as provision for insurance claim & doubtful debts of RM14 million in QE31/12/2009. Based on heavy discount to its NTA, Scomimr could be a good long-term buy.

Alex Lu said...

Hi Ivan,

I have yet to comment on the market for the past 1 month. It is very glaring...

While I think the market has recouped its strength, I can't answer the question of how far would this rally go. Until then, I better remain silent.

Alex Lu said...

Hi TehGK,

Plenitu... another target for privatisation? Who knows?!

It broke above its short-term downtrend line at RM3.00 yesterday. This morning, it nearly tested its all-time high of RM3.60 recorded in July 2007. The intra-day high was RM3.50.

In term of valuation, Plenitude (at RM3.43 now) is trading at a P/Book of 0.67 times (based on NTA per share of RM5.16) or at a PE of 6.1 times (based on annualized EPS for FY2010 of 56 sen). If Plenitu can trade at a trailing PE of 8.8 times (the then-prevailing PE in July 2007, arrived at by dividing the high of RM3.60 & the EPS for FY2007 of 42 sen), then it may hit a target high of RM4.93!! Is that possible? Who knows?!

Alex Lu said...

Hi cheer

Ajiya has broken above the horizontal line of RM1.95 yesterday. Its next resistance is at RM2.10 & thereafter its recent high of RM2.25.

Please check on the financial statements for a fundamental view on the stock.

Alex Lu said...

Hi William

My take are:

1) Genting is pressing against its medium-term downtrend line at RM7.50. If you have the stock, this may be a good opportunity to sell. However, it would be a buy if it can break above the RM7.50.

2) Kinstel is range-bound between RM0.80 & RM0.86. It's a safe BUY at present level but you may have to hold the stock for a while since it's trapped within the range.

Unknown said...

Hi Alex
Thank you for your comment.

Yee said...

Hi Alex,

Could you pls comment on 3A and XINQUAN?

Thanks alot!

Alex Lu said...

Hi Yee,

My take on:

1) 3A has broken above the horizontal line RM1.95-2.00. If it can consolidate its recent gain & stay above RM2.00, it may challenge its recent high of RM2.35. Immediate resistance at RM2.15.
2) XINQUAN has launched into a nice rally, which is gaining momentum. Its immediate resistance is at RM1.65 & thereafter at RM1.75. Immediate support at RM1.60 & thereafter at RM1.50. For more, see my earlier post (link below).

http://nexttrade.blogspot.com/2010/03/xinquan-could-be-good-value-stock.html

yloon said...

alex,

can i know wat is the next resistance for axiata after it break RM4.00?