Back to Muhibah- we can expect support at the medium-term uptrend line at RM1.55-1.60 and the 100-day SMA line at RM1.60 (so soon!!!). Overhead resistance at horizontal line of RM1.65 & then RM1.75. Since the play is over, we should aim to sell into this rebound. Aim for RM1.75 or near to it.
Chart: Muhibah's 30-min chart as at June 16, 2011_12.00pm (Source: Quickcharts)
Note: The drop in Muhibah is attributable to the downgrading of this stock by a few research houses. One of them is Kenanga, which posited:
News reported that CIMB Bank is pulling out the financing for APH. This could lead the potential write off for Muhibbah amount due from APH amounted up to RM370m as per audited account 2010. Based on the report, to date APH has drawn down up to RM840m loan from the RM1.4b bridging loan facility by CIMB, which secured in 2006. At present, APH’s main shareholders are KIC Sdn Bhd (40%), PTP Sdn Bhd (35%) and Trek Perintis Sdn Bhd (15%). We view this news as negative to Muhibbah in the short-term. As such, we downgrade our call from BUY to HOLD (due to the uncertainties) but maintain our Target Price of RM2.24, as we keep our forecast unchanged at this juncture, pending for further clarification on the issue.
19 comments:
Hi Alex
Could the recent gap be sn exhaustion gap?
Hi AlwaysWin
What recent gap? How recent?
Hi Alex
On 10jun there was a gap up with volume
Hi AlwaysWin,
There was a gap on June 10. It could be interpreted as a breakaway gap or an exhaustion gap. Normally, a gap would provide some support on a re-test. This one totally collapsed today. We can only say that it was an exhaustion gap.
gua beli 1.72 cut loss 1.42..rugi 4k plus...
I seldom see this kind of fall in a single day. like may seven crash
I got out of it at RM1.70 from RM1.80 purchased price after hearing weird thing happening that morning. I believe it might still go back up to RM1.9 giving it some time to adjust.
Hi din
Sorry to hear about your loss.
Hi primepeng
I agree. It was very sudden & extreme. I can imagine everyone rushing out to sell - from the new buyers as well as the 'older' shareholders. This created a vacuum where the share just plummeted. A very ugly scene!
Alex, you did no wrong. For all fellow investors, Alex is giving is opinion. No one is point a gun to your head to trade on the shares he covers. If there is free $$ to be earned do you think people will still be working at their 9 to 5 jobs and facing the crappy jams in KL?
Alex
Anyone who trades via TA would have agreed your reading on Muhibah was a correct one.
The price did move out from 1.78 to 1.91. I had wanted to trade on the gap up, the thing that held me back was the weak US market(which you did warned us on 02jun11)
Hence you pointed out to us the probability of a trade, and the choice was 100% our own.
I am pointing this out before that Ass... Samgoss gloat about this ...
Alex , keep up the good work... You are good in what you are doing.
We need more people like you...
Thank you
Alex
Every who trades should know that there is no perfect trade. We do not know what news is coming out tomorrow. If we do then we do not need fundamentals and TA at all.
If we had been watching the trade maybe the gap down at open with Muhibah in oversold area should have prompted us to be careful. As usual it is the greed factor that kept one in the trade.
Alex, do you think this will impact CIMB in a way, cos they do some financing for APH
Hi Alex,
I would like to ask whether is it worth to continue to keep the muhibbah share in hand or sell it out since the impact of yesterday APH's news was quite "dangerous"
Thx.!!
Hi Simon Low
Many may have gotten into Muhibah as a trade. While cutting loss is the proper thing to do, most people may not notice the plunge until much later. For these people, I would recommend that you hold for a period of 4-5 weeks in order to allow the share to recover some of its losses before you make your exit (which will probably be at a loss). To exit at the present depressed prices is not sensible as the worst case scenario has already happened. Everyone who is holding this stock was thinking of selling yesterday & will probably think the same today & next week. After the selling has subsided, the price should recover somewhat & then you may exit.
Muhibah is coming back to life!
apa mahu buat saya sudah banyak takut,1 hari sudah rugi banyak..kalau tunggu beberapa hari tak rugi ini macam.
kadang kadang panic bikin orang takut.
saya takut dulu sudah kena sama scomi,ingat ini pun sama.
4k plus ...
Hi Alex,
Thanks for replying.
We can see that the news released that APH is getting other investors and share of muhibbah rise back till 1.63 at this moment.
Just feel like muhibbah isnt that stable although they has lot of big project under their hand. I waiting for price RM1.70 then may sell it off.
What do you thk? thx!!
The most logical thing to do is not to panic in such a situation. Panic give rise to irrational decisions and may cause ppl to panic sell at the lowest price. Looking at the charts, yesterday's drop was severe but did not close below the strong support at RM1.44. Looks like the stock has somewhat recovered today. Resistance is at RM1.90
Hi alex, lookin at its ups and downs, im wonderin whether it is wise to collect some during its latest drop by today, muhibah down to 1.45 from the highest 1.53
What do u think abt this cntr?
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