The stock broke below RM2.00 yesterday on news that its Thai operation was shut down due to flooding (here). To wit:
We regret to announce that the Company’s wholly-owned subsidiaries, Engtek (Thailand) Co., Ltd. (“ETCL”) and Altum Precision Co., Ltd. (“APT”), both located at Ayutthaya, Thailand had temporarily shut down their operations due to severe flood condition in Ayutthaya, Thailand.
The Company and its management team are in the process of determining the extent of the damage which the management believes are adequately covered by its insurance policies. The management team is currently working out alternative plans to minimize disruptions to their customers.
They say trouble comes in threes. Yesterday, ENG announced that the buyer is asking for an extension of the Due Diligence & Funding Confirmation date by 45 days (here). To wit:
Separately and independent of the floods in Thailand, on behalf of the Board of Directors of ETHB, HwangDBS Investment Bank Berhad wishes to announce that, on the due date of the Due Diligence Period and prior to the due date of the Funding Confirmation Period (i.e. on 6 October 2011), TYK Capital has sought to extend both the Due Diligence Period and Funding Confirmation Period by forty five (45) days which has subsequently been agreed by ETHB (i.e. on 7 October 2011). The extension of time is to provide TYK Capital’s financiers more time to complete the Due Diligence.
As mentioned in the Update Announcement, the floods in Ayutthaya, Thailand has resulted in the temporary shut down of the group’s Thai operations on 8 October 2011. As the Thai operations contribute approximately 40% to the ETHB Group’s revenue for the financial year ended 31 December 2010, the Company and TYK Capital are working together to assess the flood situation, the impact on the financial position and prospects of the ETHB Group (once there is clarity on the flood situation) and how this may affect the terms and conditions and/or the viability of the Proposals.
My take on the flooding issue is that ENG is likely to be well-insured against damages from the flood and possibly against losses from business shutdown. The delay in the completion of the business buy-out is not unusual. As such, I believe the market is over-reacting to these negative development.
From the technical perspective, ENG has just broken below a strong horizontal support at RM1.90. The next strong horizontal support is at RM1.75 & then at RM1.60 (see Chart 1). From the weekly chart (Chart 2), we can see that ENG's intermediate uptrend line support is at RM1.77-1.80. As such, the stock may find support at the current level (of RM1.75-1.80) and recover.
There are two possible scenarios:
1) If the deal is aborted, the stock may drop to RM1.60. You may suffer a loss of 19 sen (assuming you have bought the stock at RM1.79); orBased on this, I think ENG is worth buying.
2) if the deal proceeds as announced, the stock can be sold to the major shareholder at RM2.50 in 4 months' time. You would make a profit of 71 sen.
Chart 1: ENG's daily chart as at Oct 14, 2011_12.15pm (Source: Quickcharts)
Chart 2: ENG's weekly chart as at Oct 14, 2011_12.15pm (Source: Quickcharts)