Despite
what I professed earlier - to stay away from Malaysian
politics - I must admit that I have failed. This thing keep roiling and turning in my head, and I'm here to share my 2-sen take on the current upheaval.
As I see it, the problems within the current Pakatan Harapan (“PH”) coalition are two-fold, namely the succession issue and the reformation agenda
of the original component parties. Anwar is using both issues to try to pin down a date for transition, which Dr M rejects.
On the
surface, Dr M seems to be able to work along with DAP and Amanah, and most of
the PKR team. In my opinion, Dr M’s current grand move is to completely isolate
Anwar within PKR and PH coalition. If Anwar is fully marginalized - thru
defection from within PKR and rejection by DAP and Amanah - then Dr M may not
want to go thru with a new ruling coalition known as the Pakatan Nasional
(“PN”). He can continue to rule with the current coalition, without Anwar and
his decimated number of supporters, and with or without the addition of new parties in the PH
coalition. I see the addition of the Sarawakian parties to be a net positive
development in the current turmoil as it would help to dose off the fire of
those who are clamoring for greater regional autonomy.
As such,
I believe the demise of the PH coalition and the formation of the new ruling PN coalition, including PAS
and UMNO, are a bit premature. I feel that way because it is a very bitter medicine
to swallow, not only just by the people but also by Dr M on two ground. Firstly, it
would involve Dr M’s turning his back to the mandate that brought him back to power.
That mandate was a rejection of UMNO and what it represented- corruption and
abuse of power. Thus, to form a government with UMNO now would be unacceptable
to many. Dr M the maverick may not care much for such niceties in his early
days of climbing to the top but the 94 years old Dr M might not want to do so
today unless his hand is forced.
The
second reason I feel that a ruling PN coalition is still not a done deal, is simply because it is too extreme.
It involves the rejection of DAP, and by extension, the Chinese community since
DAP has the solid support of the entire Chinese community. This is the same
community that has heeded Dr M’s call in 1999 and again in 2018. The rejection of
the Chinese community will lead to the formation of an essentially Malay
government which will put the nation down the road of even more racial
politics. That's not something which Dr M would like to leave as his legacy.
In my opinion, the next few days will be crucial in determining the outcome of the current political imbroglio. If my
view holds true, the political situation would return to normal (what’s normal
these days?!) once the succession issue has been resolved. Those stocks that were sold down sharply this round, will rebound back.
While the situation is very fluid, it appears that Dr M is given a chance to continue to rule provided he can get additional MPs to join the PH coalition. If he succeeds, then he has the second chance to make a lasting change to the Malaysian political landscape. The last 22 months of neglect has reduced the flame of political reformation to the point that the people has lost all hope for the future of this nation. Can Dr M in his twilight years find the strength to reignite that fire from the amber that was once a roaring inferno? Can his comrades support him and work with him to move the nation forward? Only time will tell. (Updated on Feb 25)
****
By now, we know better what has happened over the weekend. In a political maneuver known as the Sheraton Move, Azmin tried to replace the PH coalition government with a new PN coalition government. The attempt failed spectacularly (here). To learn more, go here and here. While the situation is very fluid, it appears that Dr M is given a chance to continue to rule provided he can get additional MPs to join the PH coalition. If he succeeds, then he has the second chance to make a lasting change to the Malaysian political landscape. The last 22 months of neglect has reduced the flame of political reformation to the point that the people has lost all hope for the future of this nation. Can Dr M in his twilight years find the strength to reignite that fire from the amber that was once a roaring inferno? Can his comrades support him and work with him to move the nation forward? Only time will tell. (Updated on Feb 25)
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