Those who know, do not speak. Those who speak, do not know.
-Lao Tzu
First, I thought our market was due for a correction and yet it went higher (here).
Then, I thought the USD was poised to go higher. Instead, it retreated sharply (here).
Finally, when I thought our market was due to charge up to the 1000-point level, it took a sharp correction (here).
Days like these, one appreciates more the wisdom of Lao Tzu.
14 comments:
Alex
Don't be too hard on yourself. Many bloggers and professionals also had the same opinion.
The market is unpredictable. That's what makes it so interesting.
I have being following for blog for a while now and value all your comments especially that pertaining to the direction of the market. Keep up the great work.
Dear Alex,
The sam idiot barking again >>
www.samgang.blogspot.com
^V^
I am sure most of u guys came across this TA blogger "Alex lu " , read his latest posting as below:-
***
Monday, April 27, 2009
Those who know, do not speak
Those who know, do not speak. Those who speak, do not know.
-Lao Tzu
First, I thought our market was due for a correction and yet it went higher (here).
Then, I thought the USD was poised to go higher. Instead, it retreated sharply (here).
Finally, when I thought our market was due to charge up to the 1000-point level, it took a sharp correction (here).
Days like these, one appreciates more the wisdom of Lao Tzu.
Posted by Alex Lu at 4/27/2009 04:46:00 PM
***
First of all, I hv 2 say Alex got my respect coz he dares 2 admit his mistake unlike backhand seng ^_^..
Since TA is unworkable , y wasting yr time on her ?
With yr education background, I am sure u can be a successful FA investor , make $$$$ thru FA method is definitely not a difficult task 4 u ^_^ ( if char kuey teow man like me can do it , y cant u ? )
Guys, u see d "beauty" of TA ? do I need to explain more ?
2 Alex lu , since u r a fan of Lao Tzu, lao Tzu once said " 浪子回头,金不换 " think about it ^_^
Posted by Samgoss at 6:30 PM
Who's barking? Peaceminded (Narrow mind?) or uncle Sam?
Dear Alex and followers,
This Sam doesn't seem to understand technical analysis.
Technical analysis doesn't guarantee profit-making in market.
Furthermore, technical analysis is something subjective.
It is used as to understand the market sentiment and to track the demand and supply force in the market.
Technical analysis can't tell when September 11 or swine flu going to erupt.
I am a follower of your blog. Alex has been very generous sharing his thoughts with us and I very much appreciate it.
Alex, keep up the good work!
Hello Mr ong, yes you are right, he doesn"t understand what is TA , what uncle sam knows is making money through his FA method .
I wonder what is yr intention of using TA ? just to know the market sentiment ? isnt't it the final destination is make money ?
Wrong means wrong , face the facts & accept it , needless to give us all these ma ma excuses to defend yr failure.
Dear okating,
Market movement is a very complicated subject.
Not solely fundamental analysis, technical analaysis or even behavioural finance can explains the market movement, maybe combination of them all.
Is there any tool that can guarantee profit? I don't think so.
Yes. Main purpose of investment is to maximise profit.
Like any business decisions, the top management needs fact and figues before taking any calculated risk and make rational, reasonable business decision best possible at that point of time.
Even so, some business still fails.
So is equity investment. We need some supports such and fundamental analysis, technical analysis etc to help us in decision making.
Like business decision making, things do go wrong sometimes. Are you expecting Alex to be 100% correct?
Alex is generous in sharing his thoughts and he doesn't charge any consultation fee...
He is not trying to prove to you that he is always right and to convince you to follow his opinions.
If you like his blog, stay with it.
If you don't like, you are not forced to read and accept his opinions.
Dear Okating,
Technical and fundamental analysis can be quite subjective at times. For example,
Public Bank has just released its quarterly result recently. Below are some calls made by various analysts:
You can see the highest target price is almost double the lowest target price.
What say you?
Don't blame others for any investment decision you made.
CIMB: Outperform, target price RM 11.10
AMResearch: Buy, target price RM 10.00
Inter-Pacific: Outperform, target price RM 9.75
Kenanga Research: Buy, target price RM 9.30
OSK: Buy, target price RM 8.60
Mayban Investment Bank: Sell, target price RM 7.60
Credit Suisse: Underperform, target price RM 7.50
UOB KayHian: Hold, target price RM 6.88
Citigroup: Sell, target price RM 5.77
Dear Ong,
Why should I balme myself ? all this while I am making handsome through uncle sam's picks , why should I ?
Regarding your brokers's call, uncle sam has once said dont listen to them, stick to his PE method , you will never went wrong .
This is what I made from his calls >
http://samltt88.blogspot.com/
Ong & all TA bloggers, we must stand as one to defend out pride , fark this idiot samghost off, read his latest posting as below ->
Idiot samghost said :
2 hsul n alfred ,I could be wrong also but many times has proven me right... if u believe that making money companies could bring u gd returns in long run , when u see d value..go 4 it !
Check out my old posting..i mentioned there when KLCI @ 830+- .. buy those bluechip stocks with PE < 8 such as like genting , resorts , parkson , Bjtoto, IOI .....
read this >>>http://samgang.blogspot.com/2009/02/v-investment-strategy-2009-v.html
I am what I am is not bcos i am smarter than u guys, it is bcos of my method is correct ! On n On u can see lots of TA buggers wanna 2 kill me off ... sad 2 say..till now...none of them can achieve it ^_^
2 Ta bloggers, u must ask yrself y ? Y cant u beat me off ? char kuey teow man with only standard six education background tu pun u tak boleh kalahkan !? apo ni ?
D answer is simple, FA is my protection !
n oso...did u guys asked yrself..after so many years in osk n blogger world , Y unker can still stand high n proud ? if my method is not workable , I would hv gone with d wind long long time liaooo...
U dun need 2 agree with me ! but u cant deny d fact that u must agree with my proven end results ^_^
Hi guys,
I like to thank everyone for your comments, including encouragement & criticism.
Being in the investment field for so long, I have learned that you can invest in a stock because it is a promising company, trading at attractive valuation. By so doing, you hope that others will one day share your point of view & the increased demand for the stock would proper the price higher. We call that fundamental analysis.
Since the objective of investing is to gain positive return, then one can just zoom into the demand & supply aspects of a stock, which are captured in price & volume data. This data is normally presented in chart form; thus the users of this method were called in the early days as chartists. Much later, they are called technical analysts.
Technical analysts do not think they need to examine the underlying company's business, industry outlook, past performance & financial position. They based their decision strictly on charts, which could be misleading because the charts could be "manufactured" or "distorted".
Fundamental analysis is not without its weaknesses. The most serous shortcoming is the question of timing of price movement. As most investors would readily admit, they would rather buy a stock that will move quickly than one that will stay cheap forever.
So, the use of both FA & TA would be the ideal solution. Nonetheless, I would admit that sometime certain stocks are so attractive that you may want to buy them even without TA signals. Similarly, you may buy a stock for trading purpose even when they are overvalued. You may think that my flexibility is due to my vocation, since remisiers thrive on volume. It is not the case. As a remisier, I have to cater for all kinds of investors, without comprising my principles. An investor who totally abhors TA will get the FA take from me but I would also caution that he may to wait for a breakout above a certain price level before the uptrend can take off. An investor who looks only at TA aspect, will get a caution from me on any deterioration in recent financial performance or poor financial position.
Finally, one must not confuse the outcome with the analysis leading up to one's conclusion. Even in a very comprehensive study where the FA & TA are both aligned in one direction, the outcome can surprise. But, more often than not, one would get conflicting signals from TA & FA where judgment call is required. So, one should not be too dejected with an unfavorable outcome. Conversely, one shouldn't be too boastful if the outcome has been favorable.
Of course, that's easier said than done- especially when you get three bad calls or good calls in a row. Lastly, I like to thank Samgang for his exclusive post on my recent "problem". I have no qualm with his opinion on TA or my application of TA. The inclusion of my photo? Sam, you're too kind!
this is so call "人算不如天算"...nobody can be 100% right in share market and it is very subjective but really appreciate you share your thoughts generously. keep it up.
Dear Alex,
This is my first message I m placing here.
I called myself RA = FA + TA. I started with FA(fully) and then move into TA.
For me, FA comes first. Then, I will try(still learning) to look into TA - MA, MACD and RSI are sufficient to me. With TA, I hv much more confidence in my trades.
Honestly, I don't see the point of people speaking on behalf of FA or TA. Agree to disagree.
So, let us continue to share our knowledge.
Thanks for being so kind to share with us(for free) your knowledge. I do appreciate a person like you, as I m still maturing to be a better trader/investor.
All the best, man.
TEH
Dear Alex,
CP is right. Don't be too hard on yourself and thanks for sharing your knowledge for free! It has helped me shape my views for both FA and TA.
Dear Alex Lu,
Even I was commented and believed your post about USD on the uptrend, but if the outcome did not come out that way, I will not put the blame on you. I just take it as a learning lesson.
cpyeap said correctly:-
1) Don't be too hard on yourself - 2) Bloggers and professionals should treat it as an opinion.
3) The market is unpredictable. That's what makes it so interesting. (Make me feel like it - keep on leaning & try to master it - hopefully can make lot of $ :) )
I believe we all still like your information here and learn from you. So keep up the good works.
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