The same sentiment is shared by Ambrose-Evans-Pritchard, who wrote an article entitled "Swine flu deflation" in the Telegraph of UK. He argued that investors are underestimating the possible repercussions:
Over the last couple of days I have been deluged by notes from City analysts and economists suggesting that H1N1 avian-swine flu poses no great threat to the global economy because the authorities showed during the 2003 SARS epidemic in Asia that outbreaks can be contained.
This is a misreading of the threat we face.
SARS is a coronavirus. It is extremely hard to catch. Just 8,000 people were infected worldwide during the entire epidemic (10pc died).
Today's H1N1 outbreak is an influenza virus, which is far more contagious.
Dr. Keiji Fukuda, the WHO's assistant director-general, said it is already too late to stop the spread of the disease. “At this time, containment is not a feasible option.
The markets' complacency will be due to successful containment of early cases in the US and Canada as well as the apparent fall-off in the fatality rates in Mexico. Yet, nobody should pre-judge the virulence of this developing pandemic. All we can hope is that we may be lucky and the virus may indeed prove mild - like the Hong Kong flu in 1968 - or burn out altogether as it mutates.
However, one may say that there is no clearer sign of the strength of the present stock markets than their refusal to be intimidated by the danger posed by the Swine Flu. Indeed, who's afraid of the Swine Flu?
3 comments:
Snoutbreak '09 - Fraud or Folly?Right now it's hard to make predictions, especially about the future.
I read quite a bit about influenza during the bird flu "boom" a few years ago. We didn't get a bird flu pandemic, but I'm sure we will get a flu pandemic eventually. Is this it? We'll see.
But we do know some things now. As President Obama said in his press conference, if you cough, cough into your elbow, not into the open air or your hand. Wash or sanitize (with Purell or equivalent) your hands frequently. Stay home from work or school or crowds or traveling in mass transit if you're sick.
Other things you could do now:
Accumulate food and water at home in case supplies are interrupted.
Download and print out the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's home care advice (just as the stores might be empty if this hits hard, the hospitals will definitely be full) - it's at the CDC site, or search for the terms "swine influenza" "taking care of a sick person in your home"
www.cdc.gov/swineflu/guidance_homecare.htm
While antivirals and antibiotics require prescriptions, CDC says over-the-counter cold and flu medications will give symptomatic relief (but don't give them to children under the age of two; don't give aspirin-containing drugs to teenagers or younger). You might check that you have some of these on hand, just in case. Aches and fever can be helped with acetaminophen (Tylenol®), ibuprofen (Advil®, Motrin®, Nuprin®), and naproxen (Aleve).
And finally, here's a doctor's advice about dealing with being sick without help - based on going through it herself:
http://www.fluwikie.com/index.php?n=Consequences.HomeAlone
Wow! Sound serious...better not to make unnecessary trip, just stay at home to analyze shares. :)
Hi Mistah,
Thanks for your information.
There is a report in LA Times which states that the current outbreak of the H1N1 virus may not even do as much damage as the run-of-the-mill flu outbreaks that occur each winter without much fanfare (see the link below). This plus the earlier report that the number of reported cases in Mexico seems to be stabilizing would certainly come as a big relief for everyone, investors included.
http://www.latimes.com/features/health/la-sci-swine-reality30-2009apr30,0,3606923.story
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