Monday, June 07, 2010

Kenmark- the truth must prevail

Kenmark was a badly managed company. Its financial position has deteriorated over the past three years and the group is on the verge of insolvency. Instead of working hard in a last bid effort to revive the company, the management carried out more shenanigan, possibly for their own personal benefit. For more on the charade, go here & here.

What I find most despicable is the effort to generate extremely negative publicity via the disappearing act of the MD which led to a sharp selldown of the shares. The subsequent appearance of a white knight, who apparently acquired the shares in the market at extremely depressed prices, seems to be part of a well-orchestrated move. Fred Tam, an old hand in the field of technical analysis, painted a very interesting scenario of an elaborate market operation which resulted in a selldown of the stock & the huge profit accruing to the operator or pool. To wit:
7. Last week, a little known stock called KENMARK made headlines with its sudden and sharp price plunge from 0.83 on 25/5 to 0.035 sen by 1/6 accompanied by huge selling volume that even exceeded its share capital of 181.7 million shares!
8. Then at about the lowest level of around 0.04 sen, One Datuk Ishak Ismail and company came in to mop up at least 32% of the shares between June 1 and 2 at firesale prices of between 0.035 and 0.06 sen!
9. To those of you who have studied the Wyckoff Method, this is a text book case of the Composite Man using the news media, and insider conniving strategies to cause public panic triggering all and sunder (including brokerages and banks who were holding Kenmark shares as collateral) to “dump” Kenmark shares at or near to its lowest point from 0.035 – 0.06.
10. And at about the lowest point, guess who came in to mop up the shares? The Composite Man! This Composite Man must be investigated by the Securities Commission, Bursa Malaysia and they must bring those responsible for this classical manipulation move used by the likes of Jesse Livermore since the 1900s to book. This is a long forgotten classical technique taught by Richard D. Wyckoff and it is now taught in a technical analysis course offered by the Open University Malaysia-IPD.

For more, go here for Fred Tam's post on Kenmark.

From the study of Kenmark's financial statements & the news of the disappearance of its MD and subsequent resignation of its Deputy GM & Finance-cum-Admin Manager, my opinion is that Kenmark is a lost cause. The appearance of Datuk Ishak Ismail as a white knight gives a ray of hope that all was not lost, which I hope to be true. It would be extremely cynical & cruel if Datuk Ishak Ismail is part of the elaborate play to defraud investors, via what Fred Tam called the Wyckoff Method.

I hope the authority would do as Fred Tam has suggested, which is to suspend the counter & investigate all the trades carried out over the past few days relating to this stock. If Datuk Ishak Ismail is a genuine white knight, he should have no objection to the suspension. However, if his motive is to continue to trade on the shares (in order to realize the profit), then we must suspend the stock to plug the escape. Finally, if there is any evidence of fraud, the authority should not hesitate to throw the book at the perpetrators for such an outrageous scam.

8 comments:

kyong said...

Dear Alex,

Excellent write up! keep it coming...

I just can't understand why KENMARK can be allowed to trade in Bursa after the "STORY" has been revealed on Monday and only suspended trading for half a day ??

Obviously Investors are not protected well by the INACTIVE and poor management of our Exchange,,,

I expect more company will be duplicating the Kenmark feast in the coming days...

But I am also puzzled on the ways some of our Traders and Investors BETTING their precious monies without reasons /basis/ fundamentals ...??

So, as Traders and Investors, we have to be very cautious...

Thanks for your info. again

Avatar said...

Yes Alex.. good comments.

To be honest, me and some of my colleagues lost some money in the last few days in this counter. How we wish Bursa can reverse all the transactions pertaining to this counter for the last few days including today.

Thanks..

Anonymous said...

Dear Alex

Would you mind to comment on MBF holding.

These stock have proposed dividend of 10sen and have table it as one of the agenda in its upcoming AGM. Although MBF major shareholder failed to privatize in previous EGM and have quoted these dividend is subject to success of its privatize, but since dividend already as agenda in upcoming AGM, i believe most of the minority shareholder attend in AGM will give full support and approve these dividend to be payout.

Alex Lu said...

Hi Hng,

MBfH is a very diversified conglomerate with subsidiaries involved in credit card, car dealership & plantation. For QE31/3/2010, its net profit increased by 311% y-o-y from RM12.3 million to RM38.2 million. This was partly due to the inclusion of a “non recurring gain of RM17.50 million consequent to the resolution of litigation between the Company and AmBank (M) Berhad”. Turnover increased by 3.6% from RM441 million to RM457 million due mainly to the trading operations in Papua New Guinea (“PNG”) and the retail businesses in Fiji. Based on the results for QE31/3/2010, MBfH's annualized EPS is about 14 sen.

For FYE31/12/2009, it reported a net profit of RM112.6 million on turnover of RM1.897 billion. However, its performance was also boosted by non-recurring income of about RM66 mil (the bulk of which came from write back of RM61 mil on debts and interest).

At yesterday price of RM0.725, MBfH is trading at a PER of about 5 times (based on estimated full-year EPS of 14 sen). At this multiple, MBfH is deemed quite attractive.

Chartwise, it may have broken above its downtrend line that stretches back to 2003. The resistance of that downtrend line (now, a support) is at RM0.60-62.

The failed Privatization of MBfH by way of a proposed Selective Capital Reduction and Repayment exercise (‘SCR’) at RM0.65 per MBfH Share could be used as a benchmark of the fair value of this stock.

Finally, the company has just proposed a 10 sen dividend less 25% tax (pending shareholders' approval).

All in all, I think the stock could be a good BUY at present price.

Unknown said...

Hi Alex,

can I have the comment about Bjcorp?

Alex Lu said...

Hi phkoay,

Bjcorp is falling with all the bad news surrounding Ascot. In the worst case scenario, Bjcorp can just cancel the deal & escape unscathed. Its directors have duties to look after the interests of the company which certainly include preventing the acquisition of a "dubious" gaming venture.

Technically speaking, its immediate horizontal support is at RM1.30. This coincides with the 200-day SMA line at RM1.31. That could be a good entry level to this stock.

Anonymous said...

See What Happen To Linear share too!!! A manipulation to jack up the share price in late December 2009 so that the Director could make fat profit from the unethical announcement to the public...

Alex Lu said...

Hi Surihani,

You are refering to Linear's announcement that its wholly-owned subsidiary, LCI Global Sdn. Bhd. ['LCI'] has on December 29, 2009 accepted a project awarded by Global Investment Group Inc. ['GIC'] for contruction and completion works for the design, construction, completion and commissioning of a 350,000RT District Cooling Plant in Manjung in the state of Perak for the King Dome Project (“The Project”) with a contract sum of RM1.66 billion.

I remembered reading about it. I was very surprised that a smallish company, classified under PN1 after being served with a Writ of Summon by RHB Bank Berhad, can secure such a huge contract. Alas, it was turned out to be worse than a hoax.

In its latest announcement to Bursa, it seems that Linear may have been deceived into paying out a large sum of money. To wit:
To-date, a sum of RM36 million has been advanced by LCI to GIG as part payment of a performance consideration sum prior to the commencement of the Project("Advance"). The Advance was effected solely by a Director of the Company at the material time in an autocratic manner.

Following the reconstitution of the Board of Directors ("BOD") in early May 2010, the BOD has immediately undertaken a critical and objective re-assessment of the Project. The preliminary findings are set out below:-

(i) lack of full and proper documentation relating to the contractual relationships;

(ii) no documentary evidence to demonstrate the overall viability of the King Dome Project with an estimated construction cost of about USD 5 billion;

(iii) no documentary evidence on the background and business experience of the promoters of GIG and on the financial standing of GIG;

(iv) absence of proper procedures and internal controls within Linear Group, especially limit on the powers of directors to enter into any financial and contractual commitment on behalf of the Linear Group; and

(v) no evidence of any significant progress towards the execution of the Contract.

Consequently, the BOD has resolved to take action for the full recovery of the Advance in the interest of Linear, its shareholders and other stakeholders. Currently, the BOD is seeking legal advice on this matter. A further announcement will be made at the appropriate time.

[For more, go to the link below.]

The authority needs to investigate how one director can effect the payout of such a large sum of money. Is this a case of CBT?

http://announcements.bursamalaysia.com/EDMS%5Cedmsweb.nsf/LsvAllByID/9097E532FF456628482577380031F360?OpenDocument