Market Outlook as at November 23, 2010

During my recent short break, I was very encouraged by the performance of our stock market. It held up better than I'd expected. However, the indicators continued to weaken and the chances of a serious correction cannot be taken lightly. This morning, FBM-KLCI dropped 8 points to trade at 1496 (as at 10.10am). This break below the 1500 level could be the beginning of this correction. I estimate this correction would bring the FBM-KLCI to the 20-week SMA line (or, equivalent to the 100-day SMA line) at 1447. In view thereof, we should be careful in trading for the next few days or weeks.


Chart: FBM-KLCI's weekly chart as at Nov 23, 2010_10.10am (Source: Quickcharts)

I would rate the above scenario as a likely event. I do not rule out the possibility of a much sharper correction, with the FBM-KLCI testing its 40-week SMA line (or, equivalent to the 200-day SMA line) at 1388. This latter scenario may pan out if the USD were to rebound sharply which could be due to deterioration of the debts situation in Europe or further tightening in China. A sharp rebound in USD would lead to a roll-back of the carry trade (or, risk assets trade) which saw huge inflow of funds into emerging stock markets, such as Malaysia.