Monday, October 08, 2012

Perisai may have a bullish breakout


There is a report by UOB Kay Hian Malaysia Research that Perisai may acquire a stake in Emas Offshore's (EOC) floating, production, storage and offloading (FPSO) vessel. EOC, which is 46.5%-owned by Ezra, was reported to have received a Letter Of Intent (LOI) to supply and operate a FPSO vessel to HESS for the Kamelia gas field.

The deal may have arisen because EOC needs to meet domestic content requirements for offshore projects, and it could complied with this requirement through Perisai's 40%-owned Larizz Petroleum [which is licensed to bid for local contracts].

UOB Kay Hian's estimate shows that by securing a 50% stake in the US$300mil FPSO vessel, Perisai's fair value would rise by RM300mil or 53 sen a share, assuming a project internal rate of return (IRR) of 15%, and enhance its earnings by RM38mil per annum. UOB Kay Hian valued Perisai at RM1.59. For more, go here.

The Edge reported that Perisai was valued at between RM1.20 (by Hwang DBS) to RM2.92 (by Hong Leong IB). For more, go here.

Chartwise, Perisai has broken above its recent high of RM1.04. See Chart 1 below. The stock could rise to a high of RM1.15-1.20 (as per the linear Chart 2) or it may shot up to RM1.50 (as per semi-log Chart 3).

Perisai has a bullish outlook based on technical breakout.


Chart 1: Perisai's daily chart as at Oct 8, 2012_3.00pm (Source: Quickcharts)


Chart 2: Perisai's monthly chart as at Oct 8, 2012_3.00pm_linear (Source: Quickcharts)


Chart 3: Perisai's monthly chart as at Oct 8, 2012_3.00pm_semilog (Source: Quickcharts)

Note:
In addition to the disclaimer in the preamble to my blog, I hereby confirm that I do not have any relevant interest in, or any interest in the acquisition or disposal of, Perisai.

8 comments:

Mat Cendana said...

This counter had exasperated investors for many months with its previous failures to break past 1.00. Each time it went to 0.95 or so, it would slide back to 0.89. And this process was repeated a number of times until today when it FINALLY made a decisive move past that psychological level.

But it had given traders the chance to repeatedly make profits with its rather predictable moves... provided one isn't greedy. Investors who buy at 0.89 might scoff at a 5 sen gain. But when you repeat it 5 times, that's a 25-sen gain. Now that it's gone into rather unfamiliar territory, I've stopped trading in it. It might go up further, of course, but now there's no longer the comfort of predictability.

Lisa Wong said...

Hi Alex, how do you think about Maybank?is it a good buy now?

Alex Lu said...

Hi Mat Cendana,

I know what you mean. I have a client who has this stock and she would take about high target whenever the stock rallied and she would regret not selling when the stock dropped. I heard that story many times.

Let's hope the time it's going to be different.

Alex Lu said...

Hi Lisa Wong

Maybank is still in an uptrend line, with support at RM8.80. Even if this uptrend line is violated, it will probably move sideway with strong support at RM8.50. However, I believe Maybank is likely to continue to rise gradually.

hkloon said...

Alex,

What is your definition of "long term investment"? Holding horizon - 3, 5, 10 years or dividend payout > ?% or capital appreciation > ?% ....

regards

Anonymous said...

hi alex-i am with u on this stock.this time its on track.it had shaken off all the week holders. i am in at 101

Alex Lu said...

Hi hkloon

I classify a stock as a long term investment of you have to hold for a period of 1 year or more. It also means that you can calibrate your entry- buy some now & wait for a pullback or add to your position if it continues to rise.

Alex Lu said...

Hi charles leong

Good to see you commenting on the blog. And, good luck to your investment.