Wednesday, November 14, 2012

CPO testing its recent low

CPO is testing its recent low at RM2150. The technical signs are not good. Bollinger bands are starting to expand. MACD & Slow stochastic indicators are pointing lower. A breakdown of the recent low could send CPO to the psychological RM2000 mark. If that were to happen, it would be very negative for plantation stocks.

Chart: CPO's daily price as at Nov 14, 2012_4.00pm (Source:

Dorab Mistry, the head of edible oil trading at Indian conglomerate Godrej Industries opined that the Malaysian government will have to announce some loopholes and exemptions to its new export tax regime, which will come into effect in January next year, in order to allow substantial duty-free CPO exports. Otherwise, total exports of Malaysian palm oil will fall. This will exacerbate the problem of rising stockpile of CPO. For more on his take on CPO stockpile & likely CPO prices, go here & here.


Anonymous said...

Hi Alex:

I dont think we can rely on what this "prophet" Dorab say all the time.

A few months back he was going to town telling everyone CPO price would be going to RM4000 by yearend. Almost as soon as he made that prediction, CPO price started dropping like a stone.

Now he is saying that CPO "must stay" at RM2200 for at least a few months.

I would rather bet on the opposite. CPO will take off soon with rising exports and declining seasonal production.

Alex Lu said...

Hi zhouyu44

I know what you mean by reading too much into what Dorab's comment. I read what he has to say as well as other plantation analysts have to say. At the end of the day, I prefer to follow my charts.