Thursday, June 22, 2017

WTIC: At The Crossroad

Crude oil prices have been sliding! How low can it go?

On June 14, I did a study for my record and came up with the target for the current decline of USD42. Firstly, I drew a best fit channel (AB-A1B1) which captured the price movement since August 2016. Within this "rounding channel", I managed to draw 3 lines; the first line for the top (X1Y1), next line for the preceding lows (X2Y2) and current line for the low to come (XY). The line, XY intersect with the lower line for the "rounding channel) at USD42.

Chart 1: WTIC's daily chart as at Jun 14, 2017 (Source:

Today I did one more study where I drew 2 ovals onto the chart for WTIC. We can see prices are within the upper reaches of the red oval while staying away from the blue oval. The intersection of the 2 ovals is again at USD42. This should provide the support for a rebound.

Chart 2: WTIC's daily chart as at Jun 22, 2017 (Source:

Based on my "unconventional" studies, I think WTIC is poised for a rebound. In line with that, I would recommend that you do not join the selling of O&G stocks in the current market. In fact, I believe that O&G stocks are now at a relatively good level for slow accumulation. Please exercise careful discretion if you choose to follow this suggestion.


mazda said...

Hi Alex,

May i have your view on Bonia?


Alex Lu said...

Hi mazda,

Bonia's earnings appears to be on a rebound after a steady decline from its peak in QE31/12/2013. However its revenue has yet to rebound. If the revenue is also on a recovery, investors' interest in Bonia will pick.

Nevertheless I feel that Bonia should be a HOLD at current price. For those with long investment horizon, you can open a small position in this stock if the share price dipped back to RM0.55-0.60.