Friday, October 01, 2010

USD to weaken further

USD index did a death cross yesterday. This means that USD is likely to go lower over the next few weeks, possibly testing the uptrend line support at the 76 mark. However, the immediate outlook for USD for the coming week is mixed as I expect it to have a rebound from the horizontal support at 77.5 mark. This rebound would however be capped by the 50-day SMA line at 80.5.

The continued slide of the USD is causing serious problem to many exporters in Asia. There were many reports of Asian central banks intervening in the forex market to slow the rise of their domestic currencies but without success. While we hope that these interventions would arrest the slide of the USD, we also do not want to see a sharp reversal in the USD. This is because a sharp reversal in USD could trigger a sharp reversal in our stock market.


Chart: USD's daily chart as at September 30, 2010 (Source: Stockcharts.com)

25 comments:

KENNY BLOG said...

Hi Alex, please help to comment on pohkong.
Thanx.

steve said...

Dear Alex,
Today all gloves up, probably because of CIMB paper. Do you think it's safe to enter now?
Thanks!

sangkancil said...

hi , alex,
i am thinking to buy IRIS,
but i cant find any research on it
i felt its very cheap now,
do u mind to help me to analyse it?

Ai Ling said...

Hi Alex,

Oil and Gas has been quiet for sometime. Nevertheless, pls comment Coastal Contract, is good price to buy in now?

Unknown said...

Hi Alex,

Care to share which counter related to election fever that have not move?

Alex Lu said...

Hi Kenny Blog,

For FY2010, Poh Kong's EPS increased to 7.7 sen from 6.9 sen last year. Based on the close of RM0.405 on Friday, it's trading at a PE of 5.3 times. The stock is inexpensive and may rise in tandem with gold price.

Poh Kong has good support at RM0.40 and RM0.38. Its next resistance is at RM0.42 & RM0.45. An upside breakout above RM0.45 could be the start of a strong rally for this stock.

Alex Lu said...

Hi steve

The result for Adventa has shown that the pessimists for the rubber glove sector (which includes yours truly) may have gotten the sector wrong. The operative word is 'MAY'. If it is true & the sector were to come roaring back in the next quarter or two, those who had sold off their stocks would live to regret it. I think we are seeing some hedging now as investors do not want to be caught without any rubber glove stocks.

Alex Lu said...

Hi sangkancil

IRIS is a stock which on paper has tremendous promise. However, the whole market has run out of patient with this stock. Unless something spectacular happened, nobody will want to venture into it.

Alex Lu said...

Hi Ai Ling

Oil and Gas stocks have recovered some ground in the past few weeks. The pace could pick up once the crude oil prices surpassed its April high of USD87.50.

For 1H2010, Coastal recorded a EPS of 25.3 sen. Based on its close of RM2.33 last Friday, Coastal is trading at a PE of about 4.7 times. That's very attractive.

Chartwise, it has good support at the 200-day SMA line at RM2.20. Its immediate horizontal resistance is at RM2.40.

Alex Lu said...

Hi William

For election play, you can look at the usual suspects- UEMLand, MRCB, Media, etc. After the strong run-up over the past 18 months, the impact of election announcement on share prices may be muted. I don't expect a strong play just for election.

steve said...

Dear Alex,
What do you think of Suncity? Please recommend a entry price for it.
Thanks a lot!

Heng said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Heng said...

Hi Alex,
Good Day!

I noticed that All the Volume trade stock are below RM1.00....

Any advice for this trend? Is it mean "something going to happen soon".....?

sangkancil said...

hi, alex, thanks for your advice..
i also share the same opinion, iris on paper is very good, revenue is increasing n profit is increasing also..
if market loss patients, meant is it time to collect?
coz my theory is if no 1 is buying..than there r chances that i had buy b4 the rally?
or is it better to buy share that already move?
which strategy is better ?

cheer said...

HI Alex,

Any reason glove come so strong these few days ?

Unknown said...

Hi Alex,

how about Equine? Any comments on this counter.

trade2win said...

Hi Alex, I have been collecting RCE but doesn't seem to be been moving. Please help to comment. Thanks!

Alex Lu said...

Hi steve

The technical indicators for Suncity is slowly turning positive. An upside breakout above the psychological RM4.00 level could be the start of the upleg that could test the horizontal resistance at RM4.30 & then at RM4.50.

Alex Lu said...

Hi Heng

Are you anticipating a certain fat lady coming onto the stage to sing? In the blogging world, one tries not to sound like a broken record. I am going to let the fat lady sits on my lapse & serenade me the whole night before I jump up & call a market SELL.

Alex Lu said...

Hi sangkancil

Which strategy is better? Buy b4 the rally or buy share that already move?

That's the question that has exercised the mind since stock market was invented. There is no definite answer. If you are a trader, you buy when the buy signal has been flagged. To do otherwise would involve tying up your limited funds.

If you are an investor, you would do the opposite. An investor would try to buy a stock as cheap as possible.

So, what are you? An investor or a trader? BTW, being a trader is not a bad thing.

Alex Lu said...

Hi cheer

Why did glove stocks rally in the past few days? Read my recent post on Adventa.

Heng said...

Hi Alex,
Good Day!

Excellent interpretation.

Thanks in advance.

Alex Lu said...

Hi William

Equine is a marginally profitable company. Its financial position as at 30/6/2010 is mixed, with acceptable leverage (gearing ratio at 0.44 time) but inadequate liquidity (current ratio at 0.93 time).

It has good support at RM0.38 while its immediate resistance is at RM0.50 and then at RM0.70. There is presently no sign that the stock would move higher or lower.

Alex Lu said...

Hi trade2win

RCECap's growth has stagnant for the past few quarters. Its main business (provision of personal loans) is becoming a very crowded space with a few finance companies (notably, MBSB) jumping into this small pond. Nonetheless, RCECap is quite attractive as it trades at a PE of 5.7 times (based on current price of RM0.63 & last 4 quarters' EPS of 11 sen).

Chartwise, RCECap is trading in a sideway fashion, with support at RM0.60 & resistance at RM0.68-0.70. There is no indication of any probable move to the upside.

Trade_hunter said...

Dear Alex,

I am looking on the BJTOTO performance and I think this comp maybe suitable for long term investment. I would like to hear your comment on the BJTOTO. Thanks.